Since 1930, statistics fans point out, the years in which the S&P 500 index rose in both January and February almost always ended up, with an increase of 11%. After the war, the rule was not respected in only 2 negative cases: in 1987 and in 2011.
The March departure, at least in March, is in keeping with tradition. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets took off with an increase of 3,7%, which follows last week's +3,5%: in the last month, only due to the rapprochement between Beijing and Washington on trades, the index gained over 20%.
ALSO ON TOKYO, THUD OF HIUNDAY IN SEOUL
The other markets of the Continent are also on positive ground. The Nikkei index rises in Tokyo (+1%). Bank of Japan governor Kuroda told parliament that the country would update its monetary policy "in due course". For now, in short, we do not talk about it.
Hong Kong also rose (+1,3%), while the New Zealand Stock Exchange touched its all-time high. Even Mumbai is on the rise (+0,5%), despite the fact that relations between India and Pakistan remain very tense.
The only exception is South Korea (-0,1%): the Hiunday group will have to recall over 500.000 cars in the United States for emissions irregularities. The title of the parent company loses 4%, those of the subsidiary Kia are worse off (-5,4%).
ON MARCH 27 THE SIGNING OF PEACE BETWEEN XI AND TRUMP
The decision by Morgan Stanley to increase the weight of "A" shares in its baskets, the basis of global investment funds, by four times helps to support the Chinese rally. But the push came over the weekend from the reports of the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, lavish details on the tariff agreement between China and the US which will probably be signed on March 27, the earliest possible date for President Xi Jingping, first engaged in the Party Congress and on the trip to Europe.
The agreement between the powers will allow the elimination of data on goods from Beijing which, in exchange, has offered large concessions on agriculture, chemicals, automobiles, gas and other products over which China today exercises strong border controls .
The effect of the agreement has already been transmitted to the currency and commodity markets.
The dollar strengthens to 111,96 against the yen: Asia's safe haven lost about 1% last week. The Chinese yuan strengthens to 6,69 against the dollar.
Gold settles at 1.295 dollars an ounce, down 2,7% last week. Brent oil gained 0,5% to 65,3 dollars a barrel, from -3% last week.
THE EURO IS LITTLE MOVED, WAITING FOR DRAGONS
The euro moved little, traded at 1,136 against the dollar a few days before the most awaited appointment of the week: the meeting of the directorate of the ECB. A rate adjustment is not expected, but the session, which falls after a much heavier slowdown in the Eurozone economy than expected just a few months ago, is an opportunity to give fresh air to the markets by setting in motion new Tltro loans.
It will be a busy week for other central bankers as well. In addition to the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of England, the meetings of the Australian and Canadian central banks are on the agenda. Attention to the meeting of the central bank of Turkey, set for Wednesday, after the publication today of the data on inflation which should have fallen below 20%.
CHINESE GDP AND THE US LABOR MARKET ON THE CALENDAR
The theme of growth will also be at the center of the annual Congress of the Chinese Communist Party which will begin tomorrow. For the occasion, premier Li Kequiang will announce the new growth target of the second largest economy on the planet which, according to analysts' estimates, will drop to 6% from the 6% set a year ago. Budget cuts by provincial governments will also slow down the economy. The defense budget is also on its way.
Spotlights on the macroeconomy also in the USA after the better-than-expected data on GDP for 2019. On Wednesday, the Beige Book will provide a more precise picture of the economy's performance, in which there is no shortage of gray areas. The most awaited statistic concerns the trend of the labor market, to be released on Friday. Economists expect 180.000 new jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3,9%.
For the Fed, John Williams, powerful president of the New York bank and Loretta Mester of Cleveland will speak during the week.
WEDNESDAY THE EU-USA COMPARISON ON CARS
The automotive world will gather from Thursday in Geneva for the show which falls at a crucial moment for the sector. On Wednesday, EU Commissioner Cecilia Maelstrom will present Brussels' proposals in Washington to avoid the tariffs threatened by Donald Trump on cars imported from Europe.
THE DECRETONE TO THE ROOM, TRIA IN PIAZZA AFFARI
Today is the anniversary of the vote that overturned Italian politics and led to the establishment of the yellow-green government. The balance is certainly not exciting: GDP slowing down (only +0,9% at the end of 2018) and public debt rising sharply to 132,5%. And the Tav issue has poisoned relations at the top as well as with entrepreneurs and the world of work.
In the meantime, the process of the "decreton" on the CBI e share 100, subject of examination in the Social Affairs and Labor commissions. Some knots remain to be resolved, starting with that of resources for the disabled and large families on which the unknown factor of tires remains, as well as for riders. The tightening of the pensions of trade unionists is also under discussion.
The Economy Minister will be engaged in a series of institutional meetings at the headquarters of Borsa Italiana, the subsidiary of the London Stock Exchange which now controls the MTS.
On Wednesday, the Finance Committee of the Chamber convened the designated president of Consob, Paolo Savona, for an opinion on the appointment.
MANY BODS ON THE CALENDAR: TODAY WE START FROM BREMBO
Busy week on the corporate front. We begin today with the Boards of Directors of Brembo and Saras. Tomorrow it's the turn of Bper, Amplifon, Cerved, Campari, Prysmian.
The agenda provides for Wednesday the data of Acea, Carraro, Danieli, Erg (Wednesday). The numbers of Atlantia, Azimut, Banca Ifis, Cattolica, Elica, Falck Renewables, Txt and Ubi are arriving on Thursday. It will close on Friday with the board of directors of Banca Generali.
Wall Street's corporate calendar is lighter. The accounts of Dollar Tree, Costco (household goods) and Brown-Forman (owner of the Jack Daniel's bourbon label) are arriving. To follow the Barnes & Noble bookstore chain under pressure from Amazon.
