Not even the Strait of Hormuz crisis, rising air travel costs, or the euro's appreciation have stopped Italian tourism. After the fears of spring, the most recent indicators confirm that 2026 will also be a year of growth for the sector, which is expected to make a positive contribution to the national economy. This was revealed by the latest publication Congiuntura Ref from the Ref Ricerche institute.
According to Congiuntura Ref, in the first five months of the year, tourist arrivals increased by 4% compared to the same period in 2025. Growth is mainly driven by domestic demand, with an increase of 7%, while flows from abroad increased by 1%. After a sharp jump in February (+15%), spending by foreign tourists was impacted by the Middle East crisis, with a 1% decline in March and 4% in April. However, as early as May, the Bank of Italy reported a recovery in visitors from non-EU countries. Tourism business confidence also remained high until June, indicating the sector's strong performance.
A sector that is worth almost 10% of the economy
Tourism has become a structural component of the Italian economy. According to ISTAT estimates, also considering the indirect effects on related industries, the entire supply chain generates 9,6% of GDP, a share second only to Spain (12,3%) among the major European economies. Limiting itself to activities directly linked to tourism, Eurostat estimates an incidence of 5,4% of national added value, compared to 6% in Spain, 3,5% in France and 2,6% in Germany.
Household spending on hotels and restaurants represents 10,5% of domestic consumption, while considering all components of tourism demand, the weight increases to 16%. Tourism also activates a long supply chain that involves transportation, agri-food, commerce, culture, entertainment, and events.
Between 2007 and 2025 the production value of hotels and restaurants increased by almost 20% at constant prices, while added value grew by around 3%, a sign that the expansion of the sector has generated growing demand from numerous supplier sectors.
Over 535 million visitors in 2025: Northeast Italy leads the way
In 2025, Italy recorded 535,5 million tourist arrivals. 56,3% came from abroad, while almost half of overnight stays (46,2%) were in non-hotel accommodations. The North-East concentrates 35,5% of the national presence, followed by Central Italy (25,5%), Northwest (17,8%), South (12,7%), and Islands (8,4%). Among the leading regions, Veneto stands out, with 74,2 million visitors (13,8% of the national total), followed by Lazio (61,5 million), Trentino-Alto Adige (60,9 million), Lombardy (56,7 million), and Tuscany (55,5 million).
International tourism reaches particularly high levels in Lazio (71,6% of visitors), Veneto (70,7%) and Lombardy (68,1%). Comparison with the pre-pandemic period shows a particularly strong growth in Lazio (+24,2%), in Friuli-Venezia Giulia (+18,3%) and in Umbria (+19,2%), while the South as a whole still records a slight decline (-0,9%).
Employment: over half a million new jobs
Tourism continues to represent one of the main drivers of Italian employmentBetween 2007 and 2025, employment in accommodation and food services increased by 582.500, representing a 43% increase. Over the same period, hours worked increased by 33%, contributing significantly to the overall increase of 1,73 million people employed across the Italian economy.
At the same time, however, Labour productivity in the sector fell by 22,6%, reflecting the spread of lower-value-added activities, such as vacation rentals and bed & breakfasts. Wages also remain below the national average: hourly wages in the sector are now approximately 25% lower than the national average.
Businesses also continue to struggle with staff shortagesOver the last four quarters, 44% of companies in the tourism sector have cited finding labor as the main obstacle to production, a figure that rises to 54% in the restaurant industry alone.
Prices, short-term rentals and real estate pressure
The expansion of tourism is also having increasingly evident effects on the real estate market. Between 2019 and 2025 Accommodation prices have increased by 37% in Italy, while air transport costs jumped by 85%, one of the highest increases in Europe.
The territorial analysis also highlights a strong correlation between tourist intensity, spread of short-term rentals and growth in rentsIn large urban centers, this phenomenon is compounded by the strong demand for housing. In Milan, for example, the annual rent for a 100-square-meter apartment accounts for almost half of the gross per capita income.
The in tourist towns the pressure is very highVenice records 12,9 million presences, equal to 52 tourists for every resident; Rimini reaches 48, Florence 32 and Rome hosts over 50 million presences per year. Among medium-sized centres, Jesolo stands out with a ratio of 210 presences per resident, Cesenatico (137), Cervia (126) and Riccione (103). In small municipalities, extreme values are reached: Limone sul Garda exceeds 1.000 presences per inhabitant, ahead of Campitello di Fassa (902) and Andalo (800), confirming how tourism now represents a decisive economic phenomenon but also a growing challenge for land management.
