All good things come in threes: after the red of the Asian markets and the falls on Monday on Wall Street, European stock markets are moving in the red, weighed down by fears about the Middle East.
For weeks the White House has been promising that an agreement will be reached on Iranian nuclear power, but an agreement, especially in light of the expiration of the 60-day ceasefire signed between the two countries in Islamabad last June, still seems far off. Furthermore, Donald Trump continues to do what he does best: give in to frustration and threats. The latter are directed at Oman, accused of blocking the agreement. "I don't think they've behaved very well, but we would handle them very easily, just like we handle the others," the US president told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, threatening to bomb the Gulf country.
Meanwhile, Oman has announced it is close to an agreement that would allow ships to return to transit the Strait of Hormuz, statements also confirmed by the Iranian Foreign Ministry, according to which an agreement on the transit route has been reached and only the final details remain to be worked out.
For the rest, on the stock market, all eyes are on tech where chip-related stocks andartificial intelligence following the leap in Antrophic's second-quarter revenues and the bubble warning raised by the ECB.
The ECB raises the alarm on the Ia bubble
In an article published on Monday on the European Central Bank's blog, five Eurotower economists warned of the possible Artificial Intelligence bubbleAccording to them, in fact, the valuations of the US stock market and partly also of the European one, driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, could soon undergo a correction that would also have negative repercussions on the euro area markets.
In particular, for the authors, the history of previous technological revolutions, from railways to the Internet, leads to a "worrying conclusion": a correction in current stock valuations is likely, Regardless of whether prices reflect rational enthusiasm or a speculative bubble similar to that of the dot-com era, the Eurozone is not risk-free; on the contrary, it is exposed primarily through its holdings in the seven largest US technology groups, the so-called Magnificent seven. Furthermore, euro area households hold approximately €440 billion in exposure to US technology stocks, mainly through mutual funds and ETFs, often without being fully aware of the concentration risk, the five experts continue, according to which a correction in the AI boom in the United States could spread to European confidence, financing conditions and employment: “An AI relapse in the United States would not remain a US problem.”
European stock markets fall and oil prices rise
In this context, European stock markets are moving in no particular order: Milan gives up 0,48% to 53,329 points, Frankfurt does worse and loses 0,46%, Paris marks -0,25%. They are saved Madrid (+ 0,12%) and London (+ 0,1%).
Meanwhile, the stalemate in negotiations between the US and Iran is reigniting the energy race, with the Petroleum Brent is rising above the psychological threshold of 90 dollars a barrel (it is at 91.1 dollars) and WTI is returning above the 85 dollar mark. gas in Amsterdam, however, it rises by 1,14% to 62,5 euros per megawatt hour.
Asia also in red
While awaiting concrete news on the management of the Strait of Hormuz and weighed down by sharp declines in technology and artificial intelligence stocks, sentiment on Asian and Pacific stock markets is generally negative.
The worst bag is that of Tokyo, which closed down 2,5% as investors appeared to be taking refuge in government bonds with record demand at bond auctions. Flat Hong Kong, the Chinese bags e Sidney, while Alone it lost 1,5% in the general index and 3,5% in the hi-tech group index.
Wall Street falls weighed down by the Treasury boom
Yesterday, Wall Street also closed down, with the Dow Jones and S & P 500 who have lost more than half a point. Down the Nasdaq, which closed with a 0,32% drop in a session weighed down by the rise in oil prices and yields on Treasury, following the expiration of the memorandum between the United States and Iran without agreement. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note reached its highest level since 2007, at 5,31%. Investors also remain cautious in view of the quarterly reports of large retailers, Expectations in the coming days: Home Depot will report its results today before the market opens, Walmart on Thursday, after disappointing retail sales data for July.
In Milan, tech and banks are down
At Piazza Affari the rise in oil prices pushes Eni (+ 1,1%) and Saipem (+1,09%), but the pink jersey of the price list goes to nexi, which gained 1,7% after initially touching gains of 3%.
On the other hand, gains are hitting tech, following the wave of optimism about AI triggered by Anthropic's booming quarterly results yesterday. stmicroelectronics thus loses 3,7% and Prysmian 2,4%. Bad too Avio, down 1,5%.
All eyes on the banking risk with the CEO of Ps, flat, Luigi Lovaglio who according to the Corriere, would still be of the idea of opposing the offer of Understanding (+0,2%), despite the U-turn of Bpm bank (-1,07%) on a possible marriage. Also weighing down Piazza Meda is the decision to "adjust" the CET1 ratio after a discussion with the ECB. At the end of June, the ratio therefore stood at 14,02%, compared to the 14,4% previously announced.
Returning to Vorsa, in red too Bper (-1%), Finecobank (-0,94%). Also pay attention to Unicredit (-0,57%), with the German government potentially considering selling a stake in Commerzbank to the Italian institution, if the two banks were able to agree on a common strategy.
Dollar hits three-month low
Turning to the currency market, the reduction in expectations of a rate hike by the Fed is still weighing on the dollar, which fell to a three-month low yesterday. The greenback is trading at 1,1575 to the euro (from 1,1585 yesterday at the close) and is worth 159,73 yen (from 159,35), while the euro/yen exchange rate is at 184,83 (from 184,60).
