For the third quarter Turin's business expectations remain moderately positive, without deviating too much from those of the previous quarter, despite a phase of weak and uneven growth for the Italian economy, and in an international context marked by strong uncertainty that penalizes trade. Among the most significant data, the recovery of the service sector after the decline of recent months. This is what emerges from thebusiness survey conducted in June by the Study Centre of the Turin Industrial Union to which the following responded approximately 400 manufacturing and service companies.
Analyzing the data in detail, the indicators representing the balance between optimists and pessimists emerge as consistently positive, with regards to: occupation (+10,2%, up 6,4 points), production (+5,9%, up 2,6 points) and orders (+4,8%, up 8 points). Another negative figure for exports (-6,1%) And profitability (-4,5). A significant difference emerges again in the expectations of larger companies, which are more optimistic compared to smaller ones, which are generally more cautious. Investment forecasts are increasing in new plants, presumably attributable to the new provisions regarding hyper-depreciation introduced by the 2026 Budget Law.
Even if it is in line with the data for the second quarter, there remains a high level of concern regarding the increase in energy prices and the procurement costs of raw material e logistics: more than half of the companies expect significant increases, with a percentage rising to 63% for logistics and freight transport. The use of layoffs, which affects 8,3% of companies, with a slowdown of 4,5 points in industry which settles at 11,7%. Stable plant utilization rate and resources (77%), which remains at long-term average values. In Turin, however, the twelfth negative figure for export expectations was recorded (-6,1% the balance of optimists/pessimists)As was the case in the second quarter, Turin's manufacturing companies are expressing expectations above the regional average.
Focus Middle East
This edition of the Economic Survey also contains a regional focus on the conflict in the Middle East, with the aim of mapping the sentiment of Piedmontese businesses and assessing the impact of uncertainty on the economy. The survey paints a picture of limited but widespread concern. Regarding the impact of the conflict on business, businesses are evenly divided between those who judge it to be significant and long-lasting (38%) and those who consider it only moderate (38%), while a smaller percentage of those who feel no effects are affected.
It's the high cost of energy that weighs the mostNearly two in three companies (63%) consider the impact of energy costs on their operating margins to be significant or very significant, with peaks in the most energy-intensive sectors such as food, metallurgy, and automotive. Faced with these pressures, the prevailing response is supplier diversification, followed by renegotiating contracts with customers: companies are primarily seeking to strengthen their supply chains rather than adjusting their inventories. Despite this, the outlook on the future remains marked by cautious optimism: more than half of companies (51%) expect an improvement in the main risk factors in the coming months, although the percentage of those reporting strong uncertainty remains significant (27%).
regional data
At the regional level, the responses of the 1.200 companies associated with the Confindustria system show overall positive expectations for employment (optimistic/pessimistic balance at +6,2%), production (+2,3%) and total orders (+1,6%). Export (-3,8%) and profitability (-8,6%) figures are negativeOverall, the propensity to invest showed little change, reaching 73,6% of respondents, a decrease of 1 percentage point. Investing in new plants bucked the trend, increasing by more than 1 percentage point compared to the indications collected for the second quarter.
The utilization rate of facilities and resources remains stable at 77%, while the use of CIG (Central Income Guarantee Fund) is slowing, with 7,9% of survey participants opting for it, almost one percentage point lower than in the second quarter. Expectations of appeal to CIG are decreasing Even in manufacturing, while remaining above average (10,6%), a more marked slowdown was recorded: -1,2 percentage points compared to the previous survey. The gap between large companies (with more than 50 employees), which express more favorable production expectations (balance +10,3%), and smaller companies, which are more cautious (balance -1,3%), is widening again.
Commentary by President Marco Gay
"This economic situation tells us that the determination of Turin's entrepreneurs and businesses remains unwavering. The results of our latest survey clearly demonstrate the vulnerability of the environment in which our businesses operate. Despite the uncertainties, companies continue to invest and provide jobs to the region. But we cannot ignore the ongoing concerns, particularly regarding exports, energy costs, and logistics. The crisis in the Middle East has further increased the cost of energy and certain refined products, and we have also seen a slowdown in trade with those countries that were growing and of paramount importance to our exports," he states. Marco Gay, president of the Turin Industrial Union.
"The need to stabilize the geopolitical context is therefore evident. Businesses can only prosper in an open world, with clear rules and full reciprocity," he adds. "On the energy front, we are now aware that the world will never return to the dynamics that existed before the war in Ukraine, and indeed, Every day there are increasing signs of instability with the countries on which we depend for production., which risk excluding our products from the market. For Europe, addressing energy costs by diversifying sources—starting with renewables—and strengthening the single market is essential. Not only is our confidence at stake on this, but the very stability of our economies.
