After the weak forecast announced this morning by the Bundesbank regarding the trend in GDP in the second quarter, the International Monetary Fund takes care of consoling Germany. The Washington-based institution has in fact raised its estimates of German GDP from +1,7 to +1,9% for 2014 and from +1,6 to +1,7 for 2015. The Berlin government expects instead a growth of 1,8% this year and 2% next.
“Germany has strong fundamentals – writes the IMF –, a healthy budget, a solid fiscal position and historically low unemployment. All this, together with accommodative financial conditions and a robust labor market, supported the recovery”.
However, the Fund specifies that "the medium-term growth prospects remain limited by a still weak international context, by uncertainty about future energy costs and by demographic changes"; moreover, “an increase in geopolitical tensions between Ukraine and Russia could hit Germany. In the scenario where tensions lead to disruptions in energy supplies, Germany would be heavily affected by its heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas in particular."
