Il summer 2026 bill It doesn't just come with the record temperaturesIt comes from the fields, rice paddies, and stables, where the lack of water and the heat are putting pressure on crops and production. According to estimates by Confagricoltura and Cia, this summer's heat could cause More than 1,5 billion euros in damages to Italian agricultureIf hail and fires are also considered, Coldiretti's estimate brings the total cost of climate-related extreme events to over 3 billion euros.
What weighs most is the drought, Which has approximately 60% of the Italian territory was affectedAnd the effects are being felt along the entire supply chain, from crops to livestock, right down to the costs borne by businesses. The problem isn't just producing less: it's managing to continue producing when water, energy, and raw materials become more expensive and less available.
Less water, fewer crops: from rice to corn, to fruit and vegetables
One of the most evident signals comes from the cropsConfagricoltura estimates a 10% reduction in the cultivation of rice, while the production of wheat exchange market has fallen by 9%. For fruit and vegetables, the expected contraction is between 5% and 10%, with peaks of 20-25% in some sectors. The situation is particularly critical for closestWater stress has affected flowering and grain filling, and in the most affected areas of Piedmont and Lombardy, according to Coldiretti, damage has exceeded 30%, with peaks of up to 70%. In some areas, the harvest is at risk of being completely wiped out.
Water has begun to run low in rice paddies earlier than expected, partly due to the early melting of snow in the Alps, which has reduced one of the natural reserves available during the period of greatest need. Therefore, it's not just how much rain it gets that matters, but especially when the water arrives and how much is left when needed. The drought is thus putting pressure on various crops: in Piedmont, the heat has brought forward the rice harvest. hazelnuts, but the estimates have been revised downwards due to the drop and the risk of smaller fruits. In Calabria, however, Coldiretti estimates for the bergamot losses exceeding 60%, while in Tuscany the heat and drought also threaten the spores of the White truffle.
Among the most vulnerable sectors there is the fruit and vegetables Irrigated, exposed to water shortages, extreme temperatures, weather events, pests, and diseases. Heat can cause sunburn on the fruit, rendering part of the production unmarketable, while greenhouse crops may be forced to close the season early. Furthermore, the problem is long-standing: between 2010 and 2020, according to the latest ISTAT agricultural censuses, approximately 38 hectares of fruit and nearly 50 hectares of vegetable crops disappeared. The summer of 2026 therefore risks adding another chapter to a transformation already underway.
Also for the oil The picture varies greatly from region to region. After a challenging 2025, initial estimates from Unaprol, Coldiretti, and Foa Italia indicate a potential recovery of around 30% for 2026, up to 300 tons. However, the national data conceals significant differences: Puglia and Calabria could grow by 30-40%, while in Northern Italy, initial indications point to a decline of close to 40%. In Central Italy, estimates range from essentially stable to a 10-15% reduction. These are, however, preliminary figures, likely to change based on weather patterns in the coming weeks.
Heat enters the stables and increases the cost of production
The lack of water does not stop at the fields, but ends up weighing on the farms. In Northern Italy the production of fodder has decreased by 30-40%, according to estimates reported by Coldiretti, making it more difficult to guarantee the animals' stay in the mountains and the continuity of production on farms. Extreme heat also directly affects the production of milkColdiretti estimates an average decrease of more than 20% between June and July, while in the Po Delta, Confagricoltura reports a reduction of between 5% and 10%. In the Piedmontese mountain pastures, the decline is even more evident: from the normal 7-8 quintals of milk per day, the current figure has dropped to 2-3 quintals, with inevitable consequences for cheese production as well.
However, it is not only the quantity produced that is decreasing: expenses are also increasing necessary to keep the companiesIn livestock farming, spending on refrigeration of milk and air conditioning of stables has increased by around 30%, while in July agricultural business costs increased by 4,5% on an annual basis and product prices decreased by more than 10%, according to data cited by Confagricoltura. Further complicating the situation are fuels e fertilizers, whose price has increased by 44% and 9% respectively. This creates a paradox that is increasingly difficult to sustain: agricultural companies they produce less, but spend moreFor some, profitability declines to the point where it becomes less profitable to continue producing; others, however, begin to evaluate different crops, ones better suited to the new climatic conditions.
From Farm to Fork: Why the Bill Can Reach the Supply Chain
The effects therefore do not stop at agricultural companies. Italian agri-food It is one of the pillars of the national economy and also has a significant weight on foreign markets: in 2025 it generated 16,9% of the agricultural added value of the European Union, ahead of Spain, France e Germany. In the same year the exports Italian agri-food exports reached €72 billion, a 5% increase over the previous year. Major markets include Germany, with €11,2 billion in exports, France with €7,9 billion, and the United States with €7,4 billion.
An difficult season It can impact the entire supply chain: less product and higher costs can weigh on the food industry, distribution, and, over time, consumer prices. PDO products are better protected by their strong qualitative differentiation and lower price sensitivity, while other products face the increased risk of higher costs and lower profitability.
The problem also concerns Europe. According to Triodos Bank, the summer heat could cost the European Union approximately 180 billion euros, equivalent to 1,1% of GDP. Italy is the second most exposed country after France. Less water means more uncertain harvests, high temperatures increase livestock costs, while hail and fires can damage production and infrastructure, increasing pressure on the supply chain.
For this reason, agricultural organizations are asking to go beyond the emergency management. Confagricoltura indicates the need for resilient water infrastructure, while Co. It also prioritizes varietal research, agronomic adaptation techniques, and rapid climate risk mitigation tools. Coldiretti Instead, he calls for accelerating the reservoir plan with pumping systems, to collect water when it's available and use it during times of greatest need. Because the challenge now is not just dealing with the emergency of a very hot summer, but understanding how much it costs to continue producing in a climate increasingly difficult to predict.
