Donald Trump has threatened, in front of the UN assembly, to destroy "Rocket Man", alias the dictator Kim. No less warlike are the words addressed to Iran and Venezuela. Meanwhile, the earth shakes again in Mexico and hurricanes return to scourge the Caribbean. But these events do not prevent US markets from setting new all-time records. In short, the script does not change, waiting for the Fed to confirm tonight the start of the reduction of the Bank's balance sheet, however postponing the rate hike to December (or even later).
The golden season of the Stock Exchanges, therefore, can continue. Even in the Old Continent, where, Reuters reveals, hawks and doves within the ECB are clashing over the timing and methods of exiting Qe. Thanks to the strength of the euro, which has risen to 1,2019, back to its maximum, decisions could be postponed from October to mid-December.
ASIA BECAUSE WAITING FOR THE FED
MeteoBorsa signals calm on the stock markets pending the decisions of the Fed and, above all, the signals that the president of the Fed Janet Yellen will launch tonight at a press conference.
Little moved this morning Asian price lists. Weak Tokyo, Nikkei indices still on highs on the eve of tomorrow's Central Bank meeting. Even exports, which have been growing steadily for nine months, extend the streak of positive data. Hong Kong is up (+0,2%), Shanghai is slowing down (-0,2%): there is less than a month left before the Party Congress, China is waiting for the indications coming from the top.
THE MERGER BETWEEN SPRINT AND T-MOBILE IS IN SIGHT
Wall Street once again updates the Guinness Book of Records: The Dow Jones set a new record, the third in a row, reaching 22.372,91 points, with an increase of 0,18%. Also on highs were the S&P 500 (+0,1% to 2.506,72) and the Nasdaq, which gained 0,1%, to 6.461,32.
The financial sector is positive: the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet should favor the rise of long-term securities, benefiting the balance sheets of the big banks. The telecommunications sector is flying (+2,3%) on the wave of the possible merger between T Mobile (+5,9%) and Sprint (+6,8%).
BOOM IN DEMANDS FOR SAUDI ARABIA BOND
Oil rose slightly this morning pending data on US weekly inventories. WTI crude trades at 49,83 to 49,48 dollars a barrel, and Brent at 55,37. Goldman Sachs estimates that, thanks to the improvement in the global macroeconomic scenario, the increase in daily consumption of crude oil will grow by 1,675 million barrels in 2017. For 2018 it will grow by a further 1,51 million barrels, more than the 1,45 million previously estimated.
But the Iraqi energy minister, on the contrary, expects further cuts in OPEC production. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has launched a new issue of Islamic bonds worth 1,87 billion dollars: demand has exceeded 24 billion dollars. Eni climbs back to Piazza Affari: +0,52% to 13,53 euros. Saipem unchanged.
LONDON OFFERS 20 BILLION FOR DIVORCE FROM THE EU
Waiting session also for the European stock markets, which, waiting for the Fed's moves, did not react to the excellent data of the Zew, the index relating to Germany's economic expectations, which rose to 17 points in September compared to 10 in August, much better than the consensus of economists.
The Financial Times reveals that Theresa May said she was willing, in an interview with Angela Merkel, to pay 20 billion pounds to the EU to cover the costs caused by Brexit. It is a far cry from what Brussels is asking for (from 60 to 100 billion euros), but it is a good start.
In Milan, the Ftse Mib index (+0,27%) reached a new 22-month high at 22.425,42. Positive stock exchanges in Madrid (+0,39%) and Paris (+0,16%). Outside the Eurozone, Zurich +0,57% and London +0,3%. The Dax of Frankfurt, practically unchanged, stands 200 points from the historical record.
DUEL IN FRANKFURT BETWEEN HAWKS AND DOVES
The duel between hawks and doves at the top of the ECB escalates. According to Reuters (news confirmed by six different sources), there is still no agreement on whether to set a precise date as early as October to end quantitative easing. Creating uncertainty and divisions in the board is the strength of the exchange rate, which has the effect of containing inflation. A compromise solution is therefore looming for the meeting on 26 October next: postponement of part of the decisions to the council on 14 December.
After the publication of the Reuters news, the spread narrowed and then settled around 161 basis points. On the secondary, the 2,12-year yield fell to 1,25%. Germany has set the coupon on the new 2-year Bund at XNUMX%, which will be offered at auction today for XNUMX billion.
TELECOM ITALIA IN DOWN
Telecom Italia's boom in Piazza Affari deflated: -1,8%, with volumes well above the 30-day average after the gains on the eve. fueled by expectations of network separation. The company reiterated that there are no plans in this regard. The European telecommunications sector instead gains 0,6%, galvanized by the rumors about merger negotiations between T-Mobile and Sprint. Mediaset was also weak, with a drop of 1,6%.
FCA LEADS THE CHARGE OF THE ENGINES
Roaring day for the motor world. Fiat Chrysler (+1,21%) set a new historical record at 14,32 euros. Kepler-Cheuvreux raised the target to 16 euros from 12,50 euros, reinforcing the Buy recommendation. Exor dropped slightly (-0,09%) on which the broker nevertheless raised the target price from 51,4 to 55,6 euros, confirming the hold recommendation.
Brembo was in pole position (+2,2%) but Piaggio (+5,5%) also stood out after the strategic agreement with the Chinese Foton Motor Group for the development of a new range of commercial vehicles in its Italian factories light four-wheelers.
Among the minor stocks, Landi Renzo shines (+13,8%): since the publication of the plan to 2022, the stock has gained more than 30%. Among the industrialists, the 2,3% increase of Avio should be noted which, according to Equita, benefits from the interest in the defense sector after the multiples marked by the acquisition of Orbital by Northrop Grumman Corp for approximately 7,8 billion dollars, the most important operation in the sector in the last two years.
STOP TO LUXURY FROM MORGAN STANLEY
Contrasted day for luxury, the subject of a report by Morgan Stanley: analysts of the American investment bank have become more cautious on the sector. Hugo Boss and Prada were cut to Underweight by Equal Weight. Moncler fell by 1,26%, despite the positive opinion of Rbc Capital, which raised the target price to 27 euros from 23 euros, confirming the Outperform opinion. But the opinion of Morgan Stanley weighed more and, while raising the target price to 26 euros (from the previous 22,5) it cut the recommendation from Overweight to Equalweight, after the sharp increases since the beginning of the year.
Ferragamo also down (-0,57%): Morgan Stanley cut the target price to 21,50 euros from 23,50 euros, keeping the Equal Weight (Neutral) recommendation unchanged. The analysts of the American Investment Bank have become more cautious on the Luxury sector. Hugo Boss and Prada were cut to Underweight by Equal Weight.
Yoox (+0,17%) fluctuated around parity for the entire session. Exane reiterated the negative Underperform judgment with a target price of 20 euros which implies a drop of about 33% compared to the current quotation.
Holds Tod's (+0,3%) after the appointment of the new creative director of the Fay brand. But for Morgan Stanley it is still underperforming. Banks were moderately positive throughout Europe (+0,4% for the Italian sector index). In Milan Bper shone with an increase of 1,9%. Instead, Carige lost 1,4%. More modest changes for the big names: Unicredit +0,3%, Intesa +0,4%, Banco Bpm +0,4%.
CONSOB IMPOSES THE PUBLIC OFFER TO ALERION. LEAP OF BOMI
Alerion +12% to 2,862 euros after Consob ascertained the existence of a shareholders' agreement between the shareholders Fri-El Green Power and Stafil and therefore imposed the obligation of a total takeover bid at the price of 2,90 euros.
Weak Caltagirone Editore (-1,7%) after the failure of the takeover bid launched by the controlling shareholder for the delisting.
Leap into Aim of Bomi (+10%), leading group in the biomedical logistics sector. Volumes exploded: over 530 shares were traded, the highest quantity since the day of the IPO (June 26, 2015).
Esprinet loses another 2% following disappointing results.
