Donald Trump has surrendered. Twenty-three days after the elections, the tycoon has agreed to step aside, while reiterating that his legal battle will continue. The outcry of 160 leading managers and owners, including the top management of Goldman Sachs and BlackRock, was probably decisive. The news did not catch new president Joe Biden unprepared, who had announced the most important names in the new team a few hours earlier.
BIDEN CHOOSES A PRO-EUROPE TEAM
It stands out above all the name of Janet Yellen. The former Fed chairman is the new Treasury secretary, more than welcome to the market: the "dove" Yellen is a guarantee that US fiscal policy will move in harmony with the Fed against the recession. The other appointments confirm the reversal with respect to the sovereign and anti-EU line of the previous administration: Antony Blinken, former deputy secretary of state in the Obama administration, will be the new secretary of state. Climate change policy is also radically transformed, with former Secretary of State John Kerry chosen as special envoy on climate issues. Yesterday afternoon GM had already anticipated that he would not adhere to the Trump administration's more lenient rules on engine emissions. The markets, already galvanized by vaccine confirmations, soon tuned in to the "new normal".
TOKYO AT THE TOP FOR 30 YEARS
The Tokyo Stock Exchange, closed yesterday for holidays, got off to a strong start and is about to close on the highs of the last thirty years, with the Nikkei (+2,5%) at the top of the last two years and with the Topix index on the rise by 2,4%.
Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, has clarified that we don't change the register, we go on like this to the bitter end, with colossal injections of liquidity into the system, until inflation recovers.
The Chinese Stock Exchanges, which yesterday rose to their highest levels in the last five years, stabilized: Hong Kong +0,1%, CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists -0,4%.
RACE TO THE RENMIMBI, FLY BANGKOK. THE OIL RISES
Meanwhile, the rush to buy the renmimbi continues: +6,4% since June.
Seoul's Kospi is at an all-time high, up 0,4%, +12,3% in the last month. But the best stock exchange is that of Thailand, a country where protests and demonstrations against the monarchical regime have been going on for days: the Thai index gains 20%.
Confirming the increase in propensity for risk is the new drop in gold, this morning to 1.827 dollars an ounce, but also the bizarre race for Peru's bonds, which, in full institutional chaos, placed five billion dollars of bonds , including one billion with a duration of one century.
The news from the White House came too late to influence Wall Street stocks, which were already positive: Dow Jones +1,12%, S&P 500 +0,56%. NASDAQ +0,22%.
Brent oil, up 0,8% to $46,4, returned to its March levels.
FLAT EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS, ASTRAZENECA IN RED (-3,8%)
Closure around parity yesterday for the European stock exchanges, after a start supported by the news on vaccines ever closer. But optimism faded after reading the PMI data for November: manufacturing held up better than expected, well above the break-even point. But, due to the slump in services, "the likelihood that the eurozone will see GDP contract again in the fourth quarter increases".
Piazza Affari (-0,02%) stops its march towards 22 points (21.701 points).
Almost flat closure also in Frankfurt (-0,01%), Madrid (+0,03%). Paris -0,07%. The best blue chip in the eurozone is the French Total, +5%.
London is down, -0,31%. The announcement of the vaccine, surprisingly, coincides with a shower of sales on AstraZeneca (-3,81%), probably due to an erroneous reading of the drug's effectiveness. The company reports that the efficacy index is around 70% when the vaccine is inoculated in a single dose, rising to 90% if the same dosage is divided into two injections. The AstraZeneca product protects slightly less than those of Pfizer/BioNgen and Moderna, but it is less expensive and better manageable from a logistical point of view.
GOLD AT THE LOWEST SINCE JULY
Gold (-1,8%) slipped to its lowest since July, at $1.833. Starting from the absolute tops of July (2.075 dollars), an adjustment phase of the strong previous rally is underway. The optimism generated by vaccine news is driving a formidable rotation from safe to risky assets. Since November 2, gold has lost 20%, against the +XNUMX% gained by Brent oil.
BTP, RECORD DESCENT IN SPREADS AND RATES
New historic low for the BTP. The 0,61-year bond comes to 120%, just a whisker from the historical record. Spread below 2018 basis points, lowest since May XNUMX.
According to UniCredit, which estimates that the Treasury has covered around 95% of the financing needs for this year relating to the medium-long segment, Via XX Settembre will cancel the medium-long auctions scheduled for mid-December.
On the other hand, the launch of a new 'Sure' bond could materialize tomorrow, for which Brussels today mandated a pool of banks.
L'AGRICOLE LAUNCHES THE TENDER OFFER FOR CREVAL (+23%)
The morning announcement of the stock market shocked the stock market.Takeover bid by Credit Agricole on the Creval at 10,5 euros, with a 21% premium on Friday's prices. The Bank is valued at 737 million euros, equal to 0,43 times the tangible book value. Creval, assuming a fully loaded Common Equity Tier 1 of 13%, has 350 million euros of excess capital in its belly. Banca Pop.Sondrio rises by 5,3%.
The operation, which makes Crédit Agricole the sixth largest Italian bank, has rekindled the spotlight on the credit sector: in the last month, the FTSE Italia All Share Banks index gained 31%.
RISIKO STARTS AGAIN: UNICREDIT TOWARDS MPS, SPOTLIGHTS ON BPER
Davide Serra, CEO of Algebris (who sold his stake in Creval) has predicted that in 2022 and 2023 there will be a further acceleration of the consolidation of the banking system in Italy.
The possible merger between Unicredit (+3,5%) and Mps (+2%) is in the spotlight. According to rumors, the Treasury, a 68% shareholder, would be ready to guarantee the necessary conditions for the operation through a 2,5 billion euro capital increase in MPS and the issuing of a decree allowing the conversion into tax credits , therefore computable in the Cet, of approximately 3,7 billion in deferred tax assets (deferred tax assets) currently not included in Monte's balance sheet.
Another operation in the sights is the one between Banco Bpm (-3,4%) and Bper (+2,12%) promoted by Mediobanca Securities to outperform.
THE OILS ARE RUNNING, TERNA IN RED
The oil sector is also showing signs of great success in Milan: Saipem +4,55%, Tenaris +2,94%. Eni +2,55%.
In the red, however, Terna (-3,89%), on the day of detachment of the interim dividend.
A MONNALISA FOR CHIARA FERRAGNI, SHOPPING DE LONGHI IN THE USA
On the Aim, Monnalisa rally (+23,64%), after the company signed a multi-year licensing agreement with Chiara Ferragni.
De Longhi bought the American Capital Brands Holdings, kitchen products, for 420 million dollars, with a turnover of 290 million dollars. With this operation, the United States becomes the first market for the group, with an aggregate turnover exceeding 500 million dollars.
Fincantieri +2,17%: the subsidiary Vard has signed a contract for the design and construction of eight robotic ships for Ocean Infinity, intended for the provision of maritime services in the United States and the United Kingdom.
Mondadori +7,14%: Banca Akros raised its target price to 2 euro from 1,7 euro, confirming the buy rating. Tesmec +22%. Palladio Holding Spa has undertaken to cover any unopted share capital increase, which starts today, up to 3,5 million euros.
