It now seems obvious that Donald Trump is preparing to denounce the Paris climate agreement this afternoon, despite the contrary opinion of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (former CEO of Exxon) and his daughter Ivanka. And we can already see the consequences: the European Union and China have reached an agreement to launch a green alliance to fight global warming. Meanwhile Elon Musk, Tesla's number one, has made it known (via tweet) that he will leave the committee of advisers of the White House if Trump cancels the climate agreement.
The progressive rift between Trump's America and its Western allies has not yet caused visible damage. But this too contributes to the climate of uncertainty that holds back the US locomotive. The Beige Book, the US economic indicator edited by the Fed, signaled yesterday that "there have been slowdowns and the fading of optimism in some areas of the nation in part due to concerns about government policies". In particular, "in the districts of Boston and Chicago, growth has slowed down a bit", while that of New York indicated that "the activity has flattened out".
Other signs of course correction have arrived from the Central Bank: Lael Brainard, one of the seven governors of the Federal Reserve who vote on rates, said that, given the current levels of inflation, there is no rush to raise the cost of money . Yesterday's slowdown in banks signals that the market is beginning to believe in the slowdown.
BANKS ALERT: PROFITS FALL. GOOD TOKYO
Tokyo is starting to close with a 1% rise supported by the first, excellent budget results in the fiscal year that ended on March 30th. China, on the other hand, is holding back: the unofficial PMI indices signal, unlike the government ones released yesterday, a significant drop in activity, the first for 11 months. Shanghai loses 0,4%, Seoul -0,2%. Slight declines closing on Wall Street: Dow Jones -0,1%, S&P 500 -0,05%, Nasdaq -0,08%.
The housing market is slowing down: ongoing sales of new homes fell by 1,3% in April. The consensus estimated +0,5%.
In a meeting with major investors in New York, the CEOs of the main US banks anticipated that the second quarter accounts will not be as brilliant as hoped. The market response was sharp: Goldman Sachs lost 3,4%, JP Morgan -2,1%, Morgan Stanley -2,4%, Bank of America -2,9%, Citigroup -2,6%.
OIL COLLAPSES, EXXON SAYS NO TO THE PRESIDENT
Oil prices fall: Brent loses 3,7% to 49,8 dollars/barrel, Wti to 48,32. The news of an increase in Libya's production has triggered new fears that the agreement between Opec and other countries (primarily Russia) to limit production is not sufficient to reduce the excess supply on the market.
Exxon Mobil loses 0,3%. The shareholders' meeting approved with a large majority (62% of the votes) a resolution which requires the company to provide adequate and timely information on climate risks. The large institutional investors voted in favour, starting with BlackRock.
In Piazza Affari together with Eni (-1,6%), Saipem (-1,1%) and Tenaris (-2,3%) fell.
BAGS IN SWING, MILAN IN DOWN
Falling oil prices and financial difficulties have also slowed down the European stock exchanges. The Milan Stock Exchange (-0,40%) closed down at the end of a day which saw the FtseMib index (at the end 20.732 points) swing several times from positive to negative, and vice versa.
Paris also finished the session at -0,4% like Piazza Affari, while Frankfurt recorded a slight increase (+0,1%) together with Madrid (+0,4%). London in substantial parity at (-0,1%).
MAY FALL, THE STERLING FLAPS
Pound weak after the publication of a YouGov poll showing that the Conservatives risk losing 20 seats in the next election. The Tories now have a majority of 17 seats. The British currency lost about 0,4% against the euro, rising to 0,8732 pounds from 0,8696 at the previous closing.
The BTP stabilizes after the losses recorded in the first two sessions of the week. The 2,184-year trades at 189%. The spread is stopped at 3,293 points. Weak thirty-year at 0,757% (-XNUMX%). The pre-holiday climate weighs on the market.
ECB executive adviser Benoit Coeure stressed the need to reach an agreement on Greece at the European meeting on 15 June.
BANKS IN DEEP RED, BUT UNDERSTANDING HOLDS
The fall of the banks on Wall Street had an immediate echo in Europe: in Paris Société Générale lost 4,6%, Deutsche Bank -2,7%. The Frankfurt institute has signed a memorandum with the China Development Bank on cooperation projects worth $3 billion. The agreement will enhance the cooperation between Germany and China with a series of projects, over the next five years, for the development of the 'New Silk Road'.
The Italian banking sector suffers the most (-1,25% the index against -0,66% at the continental level). Unicredit recorded a loss of 1,7%, Banco Bpm -2,6%, Ubi -3,2%, Mediobanca -2,4%. The exception is Intesa, positive for most of the session, which is unable to avoid the minus sign at the end and loses 0,16%. The market rewarded the speed with which the 3% sold by Generali was absorbed (+1,2%).
Banca Carige sinks (-6,53%), penalized by the ongoing clash between the majority shareholder and top management, with the expected exit of the CEO at a time when the Genoese bank is engaged in a delicate operation of capital strengthening and revitalization.
CELLNEX TOWERS MAKE ATLANTIA FLY
In cash Atlantia (+1,7%). The title of the Benetton holding benefits from the support of the American bank JP Morgan, which is promoting the merger proposal with the Spanish Abertis with full marks. “We believe that the potential takeover on Abertis entails a significant upside for Atlantia's prices”, JP Morgan analysts wrote in today's daily, confirming the Overweight opinion and the target price of 27 euros. "Closing the operation would allow the market to look at the new company with different eyes and the group would be much less exposed to Italy", adds the report.
Even more than JP Morgan, the stock is driven by the hypothesis that the American group American Towers is making a bid for Cellnex, a company controlled by Abertis which manages transmission towers. Indiscretions in this sense have appeared in the Spanish press. On the Madrid Stock Exchange Cellnex rose by 4,6% reaching a capitalization of 4,3 billion euros. Abertis owns 34% of Cellnex. The offer galvanized the Italian operators in the sector: Inwit +4,66%, Ei Towers +1,53% and Rai Way +0,98%.
ITALGAS PROMISES MORE DIVIDENDS
Italgas celebrated the strategic plan with +2,12%. Compared to the indications provided so far by the company, the plan envisages an acceleration in the growth of the dividend, which in the period 2017-2019 will rise at a rate of 4% per year, starting from a base of 20 cents on the 2016 accounts. The previous estimate was of a growth of 2-3%.
DE PUYFONTAINE JOINS TELECOM, MACRON HOLDS BACK FINCANTIERI
Weak Mediaset (-4,51%) with volumes double the average. Telecom Italia rose slightly (+0,2%) after Vivendi saw the full legitimacy of its role as leading shareholder recognized by the EU Commission. The first consequence of the verdict will be the relay at the top: the vice president Arnaud de Puyfontaine will become president by assuming all the responsibilities today of Giuseppe Recchi, who will replace him as vice president.
Speaking of Italy-France relations, the new president Emmanuel Macron, yesterday visiting Normandy, announced that Paris wants to re-discuss the agreement just reached with Fincantieri on Stx, the Saint Nazaire shipyards. Macron claims greater shareholding weight: the Italian majority does not like the President, who is asking for greater European integration. But one way.
BREMBO SLIDES: BOMBASSEI SELLS 3%
Industrial stocks were mixed: Fiat Chrysler up 0,7%, Leonardo +0,4%, Recordati +1,4%. Stm (-0,8%) and Cnh Industrial (-1,2%) are down. Brembo loses 1,8% after the news that the chairman Alberto Bombassei has sold about 3% of the capital.
Yoox falls in the luxury segment (-2,6%). Among the minor stocks, Brioschi Sviluppo shines (+19,92%) after the news of the start of exclusive negotiations for the sale of a real estate complex in Milan.
