In Venezuela, today, there are two presidents. On one side Nicolas Maduro, which began its second term on 10 January, even though international observers and the internal opposition denounced that the May 2018 elections were irregular. On the other Juan Guaido, a 35-year-old engineer, who to us Europeans seems to have come out of nowhere but who has actually sat in Parliament since 2015, that is, since the irreversible and dramatic crisis that is bringing Venezuela to the brink of civil war began. The crisis, initially due to the fall in the price of oil, of which Caracas is a major exporter and on which practically its entire economy is based, then spread with corruption and an administration, that of the heir of Hugo Chavez, which gradually lost control of the situation and canceled the spaces of freedom and democracy. Today Venezuela has the highest inflation rate in the world, which according to the International Monetary Fund will reach ten million percent in 2019, an unthinkable figure: an average salary is equivalent to a fistful of dollars and is enough for no more than a few meals. The country suffers from a chronic shortage of food and medicines, even water and electricity are rationed. Crime has exploded and about 3 million Venezuelans, out of a total population of 32 million, have already left the country: in recent months, 30 have crossed the border with Colombia every day, some of them to then reach Peru . To the democratic emergency is added the humanitarian one and, with very different numbers compared to the one we are experiencing in Europe, now also the migratory one.
WHO IS GUAIDO'
Juan Guaidò is the leader of the opposition and the president of the Parliament. He started playing politics at a very young age: already in 2009 he had founded the anti-Chavista party Voluntad Popular, and a month ago he was elected to head the assembly. Last January 23rd proclaimed himself interim president of Venezuela, pending new free elections: already during the inauguration ceremony, in the first days of the new year, the 35-year-old had mentioned the article of the Constitution according to which the leader of Parliament can assume the presidency if he believes that the head of state in office is illegitimate. Maduro and his supporters call him a "Washington puppet": in effect, the engineer he majored at George Washington University, and it is no coincidence that a few days after his self-proclamation gesture, on January 28 the White House imposed heavy sanctions on the state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), so as to somehow encircle Maduro, preventing him, for example, from steal funds from the company but also to "process" the oil in the US, which is essential to be able to put it on the market. Maduro's reaction was to order the withdrawal of US diplomats within 72 hours, a decision later revoked but which was then replaced with a tough move against Guaidò: through a non-random decision by the Supreme Court of Justice, the current president it established that the young opponent cannot leave the country and ordered the freezing of his bank accounts.
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WHO SUPPORTS GUAIDO'
After Guaidò's self-proclamation, the world literally split in two. The interim president was immediately recognized by the United States, Canada and most of the Latin American countries, with the exception of Lopez Obrador's Mexico (which on the one hand deals with Trump but on the other supports Maduro), Cuba, Nicaragua, and of Bolivia's Evo Morales, who has recently suspended some articles of the Constitution which he himself signed in 2009, which will allow him to run again for a fourth term (he has been in office since 2006). 13 other Latin American countries have instead united in the so-called Lima group, led by Brazil and Argentina and in which progressive Justin Trudeau's Canada also participates. However, the strongest support for Guaidò remains that of Washington: on January 22, Vice President Mike Pence even dealt with the matter personally, recording a video message intended for the Venezuelan people, in which he expressed all the solidarity and support of the White House . Alongside the self-proclaimed president, albeit in a weaker and less compact manner, also the European Union: the Strasbourg Parliament officially voted the motion, even if the Italian MEPs were very divided, both within the government majority between Lega (favorable to Guaidò) and Movimento 5 Stelle (pro-Maduro), both within the same Pd. The Lega-Stellato government has therefore managed once again to isolate itself, while Macron's France is at the forefront of pursuing the European line.
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WHO STAYS WITH MADURO
On the other hand, Maduro is supported by the two friendly superpowers, Russia and China, but also by Erdogan's Turkey and a handful of Latin countries. At the moment, however, that of Moscow, Beijing and Ankara is what could only be defined as external support: the countries are major commercial customers and creditors of Caracas, but at the inauguration ceremony for Maduro's second term both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping and Recep Tayyip Erdogan were careful not to attend, limiting themselves to sending diplomats. Instead there was the new president of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel: Cuba is celebrating the 60th anniversary of Castro's revolution and already under Raul Castro it has started a process of relative democratization of the country, of reopening relations with the USA and of a small but significant concession to private initiative. A popular referendum to reform the Constitution is also expected in a few weeks, which leads Havana in an increasingly distant direction, albeit formally friendly, compared to what is happening in Caracas. However, the greatest support for Maduro remains internal: certainly not from the population, exhausted by hunger and tensions, but the decisive one from the top army leaders, who control not only public order in Venezuela but also the mineral deposits and they have a very strong power in the management of the economy. To date, the generals have not yet turned their backs on the president: but Guaidò's challenge, according to many, is precisely that of conquering the country's armed forces.
The 5 stars are not pro Maduro
It is you who are against the 5 stars.