Washington is about to witness the show of the impeachment of Donald Trump, who also suffers the withdrawal by the golf federation of sponsorship of the tournament at his home in Florida. Meanwhile, the FBI launches the terrorism alarm. Less dramatic, but very worrying, is also the Italian crisis. The Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, has convened the Council of Ministers for tonight at 21.30 called to approve the Recovery Plan: a 170-page document that Italy will have to send to Europe. After weeks of tension, the plan should get the go-ahead from the majority, who received the latest version yesterday evening. After that you navigate by sight. And the rating agencies, together with the European Union, are running out of patience. Yesterday, after months of encouraging analyses, Moody's returned to talking about the risks for the Bel Paese. The tensions in the USA had an immediate echo on the lists, slowing down after the records at the beginning of the year. In particular, the markets fear that the battle over the impeachment will slow down the process of measures to revive the economy. And fears are reflected in debt securities, to the detriment of equities.
CHINA ON THE RISE ON THE COVID ANNIVERSARY
This morning in Asia, one year after the first case of coronavirus, China's stock markets rose: the CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges gained 1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0,5%.
On parity the Nikkei of Tokyo; the Kospi of Seoul decreased by 1% from the -2% starting point. The other equity markets in the area are just above or just below parity.
Yesterday Wall Street fell (S&P 500 -0,6%, Nasdaq -1,2%, Dow Jones -0,33%), futures are up slightly this morning.
TWITTER -6,4% AFTER TRUMP CENSORSHIP
Twitter, hit by the controversy over the role of the social network in Trump's propaganda (and subsequent censorship), falls by 6,4%.
As a result of expectations of an increase in public spending on infrastructure, support for consumption and aid to public bodies, inflation expectations rise and bonds fall in price.
THE SCISS ON BONDS IS WIDENING
Conversely, yields rise and the market interest rate curve steepens. The differential between ten-year government bonds and two-year government bonds has reached 100 basis points, never so high in the last three and a half years.
This scenario is especially helping the banks, also highlighted yesterday on Wall Street: JP Morgan +1,5%. Expectations are growing for the accounts of Wells Fargo and Citigroup, scheduled for Friday.
The dollar is recovering: the euro-dollar cross is down 0,1% to 1,214. Gold up 0,5% to $1.853.
THE MARKET SAYS NO TO US LIMITS ON BITCOIN
Bitcoin rebounds to $35.222, +3%, from yesterday's -10%. The U.S. Treasury's attempt to introduce new guidelines last night on countering cash laundering through cryptocurrencies has sparked protests from across the industry. Within a few hours, 7.000 requests arrived to withdraw a provision never discussed before, potentially capable of putting all legal entities out of the game.
ANGELA MERKEL DEFENDS THE RIGHTS OF THE ENEMY TRUMP
The tug of war over Donald Trump's impeachment was also felt in Europe, helping to slow down the march of price lists after the bubbly start to the year. France and Germany, certainly not out of solidarity with the tycoon, have seized the opportunity to rise up against the excessive power of social media. "Freedom of opinion - said Angela Merkel's spokesman - is a fundamental right of primary importance on which action can be taken, but according to the law and within the framework defined by the legislators, not on the basis of a decision by the management of the platforms". The judgment of European Commissioner Thierry Breton is drastic: “Just as 11 September marked a paradigm shift for the United States, if not for the world, there will be, when it comes to digital platforms in our democracy, a first and a after January 8, 2021".
The Sentix index, which measures confidence, moved into positive territory for the first time in almost a year, reaching 1,3 from -2,7 in December.
EUROPEAN STOCK MARKS IN RED, MOODY'S ALARM ON ITALY
Piazza Affari (-0,32% to 22.722 points) closed in the red but far from the day's lows. According to the Moody's agency, Italy is among the European countries with the highest rate of systemic risk, due to its high exposure to the crisis and limited room for manoeuvre.
Negative day also for the other markets which retreated from the highs for ten months: Frankfurt -0,76%; Paris -0,78%; Madrid -0,6%; London -1,08%.
Sanofi advanced 0,4% after the French pharmaceutical group acquired British biopharmaceutical company Kymab in a $1,1 billion payment.
BITCOIN FALLS: -35%
Sharp fall of Bitcoin, which plummets by 13,2% from the record of 40.000 to 32.968 dollars. In euros, however, the fall is heavier: on average, 10% more must be calculated, with Bitcoin Cash collapsing by 34,12% to 33.146 euros.
THE SPREAD RISES TO 106, TODAY THE BTP AUCTION
The Btp widened the losses at the close by closing the session with a worse performance than the German counterpart, in a generalized worsening of the European sector in the wake of the rise in Treasury rates.
The yield on the 10-year Bund rises to -0,494%, the highest since last November 11th. The ten-year BTP trades at 0,54%. The gap between Italian and German ten-year bonds rises to 106 basis points (+1,53%).
Today the 12-month Bot auction for 7 billion will be held. Yesterday the stock traded at -0,465%, to be compared with the -0,498% of the mid-December placement when it touched a new all-time low.
THURSDAY 9,25 BILLION BTP. THE DEMAND GROWS FROM ASIA
The Treasury will offer Thursday 14 January 9,25 billion between 3 and 30-year BTPs, in addition to the new 7-year.
In an interview with Reuters, the head of the Italian debt, Davide Iacovoni, said that Asian interest in our country's debt is growing.
THE UNIPOL BPER TEAM SHINES
Among the few titles to rejoice, those rewarded by the judgment of analysts. The insurance companies shine, with Unipolsai champion of the day at +2,45%, and Unipol immediately behind at +1,54%. Bper is also advancing (+2,06%) of which Unipol is the main shareholder. Mediobanca Securities has restarted coverage of stocks with a buy recommendation, assuming that the dividend could yield 14,5% this year.
MPS, THE BOD SLIDES TO 28. CREDIT SUISSE ADVISOR FOR THE SALE
Negative Unicredit (-1,74%) and Banco Bpm (-1,01%). The sales also penalize Mps (-2,11%), on the day of the Board of Directors dedicated to a still preliminary examination of the capital strengthening - up to a maximum of 2,5 billion - which will then have to be submitted to the European Central Bank by the end of the month. The board is allegedly studying an operation which, alongside the capital increase, also provides for the issue of At1 bonds (an option also indicated by the ECB) but the latter path is considered by analysts almost a school hypothesis, difficult to light of the forecast of closing 2021 with a loss and returning to profit only in 2023.
Yesterday, however, the council decided to postpone the meeting that will approve these measures further than the previously communicated January 19, bringing it to January 28. A choice officially dictated by the need to bring the moment of approval of the document closer to the one in which it will be delivered to the ECB.
In the meantime, Montepaschi has given a formal mandate to Credit Suisse to act as advisor, alongside Mediobanca, in the search for a partner. The investment bank led in Italy by Federico Imbert has been given the task of accompanying MPS "in the evaluation of the strategic alternatives available"
UNICREDIT, ONE ARMCHAIR FOR FIVE CANDIDATES
In the meantime, another selection process has begun, that of looking for a candidate to succeed Jean Pierre Mustier at the helm of Unicredit. According to the website of the Sun 24 Hours already in tomorrow's board Unicredit will analyze a shortlist of five candidates, selected by Spencer Stuart. However, many observers believe that the time has not yet come to narrow down the circle, even if tomorrow's council will certainly include information on the method by which selection is being made and an update on the state of the art. In recent days' total bets, one of the most popular candidates was Andrea Orcel (ex UBS) together with Fabio Gallia, Alberto Nagel, Alessandro Decio and the two internal players Carlo Vivaldi and Francesco Giordano. More recently, the name of Vittorio Colao has been around, while Marina Natale has been mentioned on several occasions (but also Victor Massiah and many others): the party of those who believe that the choice can come to fruition at the beginning of February, to then be examined by the board of directors on the 10th, the prevailing one remains, even if an acceleration cannot be ruled out.
FINECO SUPER, HISTORICAL RECORD AND HARVEST BOOM
Among the stocks in evidence also Fineco: +0,96% to 13,735 euros at the highest. Historic record also for December deposits: 1,58 billion euros (+119% compared to a year ago). Intesa San Paolo confirmed its hold rating and a target price of 12,8 euros. Equita Sim instead confirmed the buy rating with a target price of 14,4 euro per share.
TAMBURI SELLS 3,7% OF PRYSMIAN FOR 29,5 EUROS
Surprisingly, Giovanni Tamburi significantly lightened the position held in the capital of Prysmian. With closed markets, the investment vehicle Clubtre, 66,23% controlled by Tip, has in fact started the placement of most of the shares held. The accelerated bookbuilding involved 10 million shares, equal to 3,73% of the entire 5,06% stake. The placement was handled by Equita and Morgan Stanley. In the evening, the placement was completed with full coverage of the book. The sale took place at a price of 29,25-29,5 euros per share.
Stm (+1%) and Hera (+1,72%) make progress pending the sustainability plan.
FCA-0,92% WAITING FOR THE EXTRA COUPON
Sales on Fiat (-0,92%) at the start of the last week on the list with this name waiting to debut next Monday as Stellantis. In the next few days, the go-ahead is expected for the distribution of the extraordinary pre-merger dividend with PSA of 2,9 billion euros, already discounted by the market. Exor is down (-1,73%).
BERENBERG: “GENERALI OFFERS A 32% YIELD”
Among the insurance companies, Generali lost 0,55%. However, Berenberg writes that the company has a higher solvency ratio than its European peers, the best operating margin in the P&C segment and limited exposure to claims related to the coronavirus pandemic. Furthermore, according to the banking institution, "Generali stands out for its attractive risk remuneration, as it offers a total return of 32%."
Cattolica slips out of the main basket, -2,25%. Ivass, the insurance supervisory authority, has asked the Veronese company for a profound change of the board of directors and to complete the second tranche of the capital increase (from 200 million), after the 300 million one which saw the entry of Generali with 24,4%.
JP MORGAN AWARDS ENEL, SNAM SIZE
Saipem -1,5%. The Milan prosecutor accuses the company's top management of various crimes committed in the reorganization of the ownership structure which led to the entry into the capital of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti about four years ago. In particular, the absence of updated indications on the value of the assets in the prospectus of the capital increase is contested. Eni -0,5%.
Numerous indications coming from brokers. Enel -0,1%: JP Morgan raised its target price to 9,4 euros from 8 euros. Snam -0,1%: JP Morgan cut its rating to 'neutral' from 'overweight', bringing the target price to 4,90 from 4,65 euro. Nexi -0,9%: Barclays raised its target price to 17,70 from 17 euros.
PIAGGIO, FOR MEDIOBANCA IS OUTPERFORM
In evidence Piaggio (+3,40%), promoted by Mediobanca Securities to outperform from neutral. Ovs did well (+1,06%), after the go-ahead for the purchase of Stefanel's assets.
