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USA, the markets fear the post-election clash

It's not the clash between Trump and Biden that worries the Stock Exchanges, but the risk of chaos following the vote - The EU is keeping an eye on the Autostrade case - Disney fires 28 employees - Huffington Post for sale, but no one comes forward

USA, the markets fear the post-election clash

“Trump, everyone knows you are a liar and a clown, the worst president in American history.” "Biden, you are the puppet of the radical left", replies the President, who however refused to commit himself, in the event of defeat, to favoring a peaceful handover. The first of three TV duels between the candidates for the White House it has not lived up to expectations. Trump repeatedly interrupted his rival, who at one point ordered him: "Do you want to shut up". Before the debate, Biden made his tax declaration public: $288.000, against the tycoon's $750. The first results in the debate are for Biden, ahead by 7 points in the national poll and for the first time in the lead in Georgia, which has not voted for the Democrats since 1992, and a whisker from Trump even in Texas.   

FLY CHINA ON THE EVE OF THE HOLIDAYS

The brawl on live TV has shaken the markets, which fear that the situation could get out of hand. Wall Street futures are down a half point from the already red close.

Meanwhile, on the eve of Golden Week, the week of the Chinese autumn holidays, the renmimbi climbs to a new 22-month high against the dollar, at 6,811. Both the Shanghai (+0,8%) and Hong Kong (+1,7%) stocks rose, against a robust and partly unexpected increase in manufacturing activity. The component linked to services was also better than expected. The data on exports is also very positive: new orders from abroad rose to their highest levels at the beginning of the year.

The chaotic electoral confrontation in the USA instead held back the Tokyo (Nikkei -0,7%) and Sydney (S&P ASX 200 -1,5%) stock exchanges.

WALL STREET DOWNS, BUT IT'S ON THE BUDGET

Returning to the United States, where fears of a poisonous vote are growing, negotiations between the parties on the budget continue. Yesterday Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin were on the phone for 50 minutes and their spokespeople said they had scheduled an appointment for today.

DISNEY FIRES 28 THOUSAND EMPLOYEES, FOR SALE HUFFPOST

In the post-stock market, Disney announced 28 layoffs at its amusement parks division after the state of California barred Disneyland from reopening for health reasons.

Chipmaker Micron presented impressive quarterly data (earnings per share doubled) but forecasts weren't as brilliant. Furthermore, the top management said they have no idea when it will be able to return to selling to Huawei, one of the most important customers.

Telephone operator Verizon is looking for a buyer for HuffPost, which has seen a steep increase in losses in recent months. At the moment there are no buyers.

The dollar, with the exception of the renmimbi, moved little against the main currencies of the planet, after two consecutive days of decline.

ARMENIAN CRISIS: RUBLE AND TURKISH LIRA SUFFER  

The Turkish lira and the Russian ruble continue to suffer, the countries most involved in the Caucasus war which broke out in the Nagorno Karabakh region between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Brent oil is down 1,3%, at 40,5 dollars a barrel: yesterday it lost 3,3%.  

EU INFLATION HOLDS DOWN, GERMANY STILL BELOW ZERO

Inflation in Europe is still holding back under the pressure of the Covid-19. And at the same time the recovery is fading. In Germany, consumer prices fell by 0,4% in September compared to the previous month, from -0,2% in September, a figure that detracts from those who believe that new stimuli for the economy are unnecessary.

European data on expensive living will be released on Friday. As emerged in the last meeting, the Frankfurt governing council was agitated by the internal divisions on which tools to adopt to deal with a new wave of Covid. In the meantime, the ECB is buying and bond purchases have risen to the highest levels since the end of June, with almost 30 billion of bonds purchased.

THE TREASURY BOOM CONTINUES: BTP AND SPREADS AT THE LOWEST

In the meantime, clear signals are coming from the market. Yesterday the Treasury celebrated yet another successful auction. The maximum amount of 8,25 billion euros has been assigned in the new ten-year April 2031 and in the reopening of the 5-year BTP, as well as in the CCTEU. Yields fell for the new 10-year to the lowest level since September 2019 and for the five-year since last January. The BTP trades at 0,85%, -3 basis points compared to the previous day and in view of the historic low of 0,80%. The spread slips below 140 points.

GERMANY WILL ISSUE MORE SECURITIES: A GREEN BOND ARRIVES

The trend of the Bunds is similar: -0,54%, on the lowest since the beginning of August. Berlin announced yesterday that issues in the fourth quarter will be 50,5 billion, six more than previously said: among these is a new green bond with a 5-year maturity.

Germany expects its debt service cost to more than halve this year, to its lowest level ever, despite record borrowing by the government to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic.

EU EXCHANGES DOWN: MILAN -0,52%

The drop in risk appetite was felt on the stock markets: Piazza Affari dropped 0,52%, at 19.061 points. The other Stock Exchanges were also in red: Frankfurt -0,37%, Paris -0,23%, Madrid -1,1% and London -0,5%.

ATLANTIA INSISTS: NO TO RELEASE FOR CDP

Blue chip contrasted in Milan. Atlantia (+1,83) and Diasorin (+1,82%) rose, which had not ridden the bullish trend on Monday. Atlantia's Board of Directors met yesterday to discuss the response to be given to the government's ultimatum on the Autostrade per l'Italia affair.

In the letter sent to the government yesterday evening, the company reiterates that "it has made and intends to make every effort to reach an agreement that respects the purposes expressed in the letter of 14 July and at the same time protect the rights and interests of Atlantia's shareholders and the minority of Aspi. Agreements in principle had been sought with the CDP on these efforts. The main impediments - continues the note - emerged at the beginning of September with the request from CDP, among other conditions, for unusual guarantees and indemnities and for Aspi to take over bonds issued by Atlantia, all of which are not present in the letter of July 14 and not acceptable in a market context".

EU IN THE FIELD TO AVOID A "SYSTEMIC RISK"

In the reply letter, Atlantia specifies that its position has always been that of being available for the sale of the subsidiary Aspi, as reported in the same letter dated 14 July. In short, it goes to total confrontation. And Brussels, worried about systemic risk, will informally contact the Italian government, asking for clarifications. Among the various profiles of possible violation of Community rules, what worries the EU is the potential domino effect on Atlantia/Aspi, which would put investors and banks exposed to the group at risk. Faced with this scenario, Brussels will ask the government to demonstrate that its action is justified and proportional, in the face of such a risk to financial stability.

THE PLASTIC TAX SCARES UTILITIES. DOWN THE OILS

Utilities around parity, in the wake of press rumors according to which the government is working on the hypothesis of extending the scope of application of the plastic tax to wholesalers as well. Snam -0,24%, Enel +1%. Acea on the rise (+1,91%) on which Kepler Cheuvreux confirmed the buy recommendation and the target price of 20 euros.

The sharp drop in oil prices weighed on the list: Eni and Saipem -2,5%, Tenaris -2,8%.

ON THE STELLANTIS BOD, NO ITALIANS BESIDES AGNELLI AND ELKANN

Sales on Fiat Chrysler (-2,33%), after the company and Peugeot defined the composition of the board of directors of Stellantis, the new reality resulting from the merger of their businesses.

John Elkann will be president, Robert Peugeot will be vice president and the current CEO of PSA, Carlos Tavares, will have operational leadership of Stellantis. FCA has indicated four other directors: Andrea Agnelli plus three completely new faces, namely the Americans Kevin Scott, chief technology officer of Microsoft, Wan Ling Martello, co-founder of the private equity firm BayPine, and the Englishman with Italian origins Fiona Clare Cicconi, head of human resources at the pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca. PSA and its shareholders in addition to Peugeot have indicated three Frenchmen - Henri de Castries, Nicolas Dufourcq and Jacques de Saint-Exupéry - and the Canadian Ann Frances Godbehere.

AMPLIFON AND PRYSMIAN TOP, ENAV DOWN

Amplifon's race continues (+1,98%) with updated highs. Among the industrials, Prysmian (+0,1%) is worth mentioning, its highest since February.

Among the mid caps, the rebound of Astaldi (+4%) and Oviesse (+2,25%) stood out. Sogefi +2,09%.

Enav decreased (-3,21%), which closed the first half of the year with a consolidated net profit of 15,6 million euros (-54,2% compared to the first half of 2019).

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