As in the most classic Hollywood films, the bomb could be defused within seconds of the explosion. Now that time is running out (less than two weeks to go), Democrats and Republicans finally seem close to an agreement to avoid the "fiscal cliff", the fiscal cliff that threatens to send the 2013 GDP of the United States into the red.
It seems that the decisive step backwards to unlock the negotiation came from Barack Obama, willing to concede much more than expected in terms of taxation on the highest incomes. In particular, the Democratic President would have guaranteed the Republicans to maintain the current reliefs on all categories except income equal to or greater than $ 400 a year.
Up to now Obama had said he was willing to negotiate up to the threshold of 250 dollars. Republicans, however, continue to reject any squeeze on incomes below one million.
The President would have granted his opponents even a reduction from 1.400 to 1.200 billion of the portion of tax increases envisaged by the ten-year plan for the reduction of the federal deficit. But even on this front the requests of the Republicans are different: John Boehner, the main negotiator of the opposition, does not intend to go further the threshold of 1.000 billion for the fiscal squeeze.
As for spending cuts, according to Brendan Buck, Boehner's spokesman, the latest proposals from the Obama administration are "a step in the right direction". In short, there is still no agreement, but the distance between the two sides has narrowed.
The “fiscal cliff” consists of the combined effect of two measures which – without a new law intervention – will automatically take effect in January. The deadly combination is a traditional recipe for austerity: tax increases (with the expiry of the various tax bonuses) and spending cuts (welfare excluded). Recessionary effects are inevitable: GDP would drop by 0,5% next year and unemployment would return to over 9% (today it is 7,9%).
In political practice, the real problem is the rift that since January 2011 has paralyzed the action of Congress, divided between the Democratic Senate and the Republican Chamber. A stalemate confirmed by the last presidential elections.
