After three consecutive years of contraction, the Italian economy will return to growth in 2015 with a 0,5% increase in GDP, which will be followed by +1,1% in 2016. UniCredit Research writes it in the Outlook presented yesterday , noting that our country's exports "should benefit from the weakening of the euro and the moderate recovery in global demand".
This factor should support a gradual acceleration in investment growth starting from the second half of next year, when the climate of uncertainty that is currently weighing down on domestic demand prospects should partially dissipate leading to a more marked improvement in confidence indicators.
In turn, the recovery of the labor market will accelerate towards the end of the year, with more sustained growth in employment, albeit against a slow decline in unemployment. This will strengthen the ongoing recovery in consumption in the private sector, which has already begun to benefit from a more growth-friendly fiscal policy and lower inflation.
Furthermore, UniCredit Research forecasts that the government's less stringent budgetary policy will lead to a slow reduction of the deficit in 2015 (to 2,8% from 3,0% in 2014), while in 2016 the better growth prospects should reduce the deficit further, to 2,4%. The debt-to-GDP ratio will consequently continue to rise next year, before starting to fall in 2016.
The main risk is constituted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, political developments in some peripheral countries of the Eurozone must be followed "carefully as political elections approach with an uncertain outcome, particularly in Spain and Portugal - the text continues - . The political situation in Greece is also uncertain, where the presidential elections are approaching”.
UniCredit notes that global growth has returned to long-term average values thanks to the driving force of the United States and the United Kingdom, while the Eurozone and some of the main emerging markets are still lagging behind: "We expect global growth to accelerate in 2015" . According to the forecasts contained in the Outlook, US growth will accelerate, going from 2,3% in 2014 to 3,0% in 2015, while that of the Eurozone will go from 0,8% to 1,0%. In the Eurozone, the weaker exchange rate and the drop in oil prices will play a key role in the recovery of economic activity.
