It is a revolution for Italian capitalism. Wednesday 6 November Unicredit has sold its entire stake in Mediobanca, through an accelerated bookbuilding procedure managed by Bofa Securities Morgan Stanley and Unicredit Corporate & Investment Banking. The settlement of the offer is expected on 11 November 2019.
Unicredit will earn about 800 million from the operation, which took place within a price range of 10,53-10,78 euros. An operation that will allow the institute managed by Alberto Nagel to obtain a substantial capital gain. The price incorporates a discount of approximately 2,3%. compared to Mediobanca's last pre-announcement closing price.
Unicredit's number one, Jean Pierre Mustier, has pledged not to interfere with the allocation of shares and to "support real economies in the various markets": the proceeds from the sale will in fact be reinvested in the development of customer activities.
The expected impact from the sale, which will be accounted for in the fourth quarter, is essentially neutral on Unicredit's CET1 capital ratio. The institute will present the new industrial plan in less than a month, on December 3rd.
With this operation, however, the balance changes both in Mediobanca – increasingly a public company – and in Generali, in which Piazzetta Cuccia is the first shareholder with 13%.
In Mediobanca today Leonardo Del Vecchio, waiting to rise above 10%, counts on 7,54% of the capital (plus a share of securities acquired in the Wednesday auction), ahead of Vincent Bolloré, who has dropped to 6,73%.
In General, however, Del Vecchio can count on 4,85% of Delfin, in addition to 13% in Mediobanca.
At this point, therefore, the hypothesis of an alliance between Mustier and the French CEO of Generali, Philippe Donnet, perhaps with the support of Bolloré, to bring Generali as a dowry to the French of Axa, loses all credibility.
Against, Mediobanca becomes increasingly contestable. It is still too early to say whether Del Vecchio will want to continue the takeover of the capital of Piazzetta Cuccia, but certainly the sale of the Unicredit share opens a hole in the institute's capital which could be filled by other Italian or foreign investors.
UNICREDIT: QUARTERLY BEYOND EXPECTATIONS, THE STOCK RUNS
As for the accounts, Unicredit closes the first 9 months of the 2019 with a net profit of 4,3 billion and an adjusted profit of 3,3 billion (+8,2%), with an adjusted rote of 8,7%. In the third quarter profits were up 25,7% to $1,1 billion. The data is above the consensus e the stock on the stock exchange gains 3,6%, leading the Ftse Mib.
the ceo, Jean Pierre Mustier, said, “The quarter benefited from strong business dynamics, strong trading revenues and our focus on disciplined cost management, which continues to deliver results. Thanks to our proactive and decisive actions we have already achieved our key objectives or we will exceed them by the end of this year”.
Therefore, the 2019 guidance has been confirmed, which forecasts revenues of 18,7 billion and an adjusted net profit of 4,7 billion, with revenues greater than 9% and core group revenues greater than 10% for the whole of 2019.
MUSTIER: "WE THINK OF AN INTERNATIONAL HOLDING BASED IN ITALY"
During the conference call with analysts, Mustier then added: “We never said we would have a holding company in Germany. We have said that we want to have an international holding company and that it will be based in Italy and that it will not be listed. That's what we have in mind."
Furthermore, "we are open to the possibility of evaluating buybacks in the event that our shares trade at a discount on tangible assets", said the French manager.
