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Unicredit and Mediobanca: here is the great turning point and now the race for Generali

The sudden exit of Unicredit from Mediobanca changes the heart of Italian capitalism and prepares the great race for the Lion of Trieste - Mustier's sale announced after closed markets

Unicredit and Mediobanca: here is the great turning point and now the race for Generali

The revolution broke out just around 18 pm, with the stock exchanges closed, at the end of a flat session. Unicredit, on the eve of the accounts, has started the sale of the entire stake in Mediobanca, equal to 8,4%, through a book building managed by Bofa Securities Morgan Stanley and UniCredit Corporate & Investment Banking. The operation, from which Unicredit will receive approximately 800 million, took place within a price range of 10,53-10,78 euros, and will allow the institution managed by Alberto Nagel to obtain a conspicuous capital gain given the value of loads below 10 euros (9,89 euros). Mustier has undertaken not to interfere with the assignment of the shares and to "support the real economies in the various markets": the proceeds of the sale will in fact be reinvested in the development of the clients' businesses.

25 TIER ONE POINTS MORE FOR MUSTIER THAN THE OLD LEADER

 The sale of 8,4% at slightly discounted prices should strengthen Unicredit's Common Equity Tier One by about 25 basis points. The press release suggests that the shares were not all sold to Leonardo Del Vecchio, who with his 7,5%, or perhaps more, is the reference shareholder of the company.

By chance, the separation between Piazzetta Cuccia and Unicredit, which reshapes the balance of power in Generali, took place on the day in which Olaf Scholz, the German finance minister, opened up a guarantee on deposits in a European key, the necessary element to complete the Banking Union and pave the way for cross-border mergers thanks to common rules. For now, however, a change in the balance is looming both in Mediobanca, increasingly a public company, and in the subsidiary Generali. In Piazzetta Cuccia today Leonardo del Vecchio, waiting to rise to more than 10%, counts on 7,54% of the capital (plus a share of securities acquired in yesterday's auction), ahead of Vincent Bolloré, who fell to 6,73% .

FRANCE CLOSER FOR THE LION

In Generali, "mister Essilux" can count on 4,85% of Delfin as well as 13% of Mediobanca in Leone, perhaps on its way to marrying Axa. In financial terms, a season of great effervescence opens which includes, among other things, the presentation of the industrial plan of Mediobanca and, next 3 December, that of Unicredit. In a political key, fortress Italy is increasingly unguarded. Les Echos today publishes a report entitled "The curse of Italian capitalism".

USA-CHINA DIVIDED ON THE SUMMIT VENUE. ASIA DOWNWARDS

The global financial scene has not moved much. The markets register with a hint of annoyance the probable postponement of the summit between the two Big Brothers to December. Reuters wrote tonight that Beijing rejected the White House's proposal to have the two presidents meet in the United States, Iowa or Alaska. It seems that the parties are discussing a summit in a neutral place, probably in Europe: London could be in pole position. The hitch, more of form than substance (but in politics, form is substance) has allowed the markets to collect the fruits of the recent extensions on the equity front while the rebalancing of bonds continues.

Tokyo's Nikkei is at parity, while the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists are down slightly (-0,3%). Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0,3%, Taiwan's Taiex -0,6%. The Indonesia Stock Exchange loses 1,3%.

The dollar-yuan exchange rate appreciated to 7,02, after seven consecutive sessions of decline. The yen gains ground to 108,70 against the dollar.

Also the US stocks moved little: Dow Jones -0,07%, S&P 500 +0,07%. NASDAQ +0,29%.

WALL STREET DATING WAR

Of note, as a curiosity, the descent of Match Group, parent company of Tinder, leader of dating sites for lonely hearts, under the fire of the dumping of competitors.

Gold up 0,1%, to 1.492 dollars, from +0,5% at yesterday's close.

Brent oil down 0,2%, to 61,7 dollars a barrel, after yesterday's -2%. It seems that the leading OPEC countries will present themselves at the December assembly with a proposal to maintain current production levels. In Milan Eni unchanged, Saipem -0,3%, Tenaris -1,3%.

IMF: IN EUROPE, THE GROWTH OF SERVICES IS ALSO AT RISK

Apart from Italian banks, the European financial day was also stingy yesterday with no important ideas. The Stock Exchanges of the Old Continent closed a session of modest volatility. Meanwhile, the Monetary Fund is sounding the alarm: the crisis that has hit the manufacturing sector could also extend to services in the wake of trade tensions, holding back the growth of the block to 1,2%, down from the April estimates when it was given '1,3%.

Piazza Affari slows down but closes with a plus sign for the fourth time in a row: +0,04% to 23.373 points.

Frankfurt climbs 0,24%; Paris +0,34%; Madrid -0,07%; London +0,1%; Zurich +0,47%.

BTP OVER 1%, OAT RETURNS ABOVE ZERO

The greater propensity for risk penalizes Italian paper and the yield on the 10-year BTP rises to 1,03% (high for the day at 1,08%), while the spread with the Bund strengthens to 135 basis points (+2,69 %).

More sensitive variations for “core” Europe: the yield on the ten-year Bund rises to -0,3%, as does the similar Austrian security, to its highest levels for three months.

The French XNUMX-year yield returned to zero for the first time since July.

POSTS IN BRAKING DESPITE THE PROFIT

Superstar banks during the session even before the placement of Mediobanca. In great evidence Unicredit, +1,04% awaiting results and after completing the sale of an NPL portfolio of residential mortgages with a gross value of 4,1 billion euros (6,1 billion total credit) to a vehicle securitization by selling 95% of the mezzanine and junior notes issued to a non-group institution.

Poste Italiane (-2,2%) closed the third quarter with 459 million euros of operating profit, in line with the result of the third quarter of 2018, but better than expectations, thanks to the insurance segment, while that of the finance area was weak. Mail Delivery Division Revenues Down 5%, In Line With Expectations.

QUARTERLY: CNH DOWN, DIASORIN UP

Featured asset management. Banca Generali +2,5%. FinecoBank +1% thanks to the promotion of HSBC and MainFirst. Azimuth +0,5% in the aftermath of the high of the last two years: Kepler has cut the recommendation from Buy to Hold.

Among the industrialists, Cnh Industrial slips (-5%). Third quarter Industrial Activities net sales revenue was $5,9 billion, down 6% from the third quarter of 2018.

The growing accounts instead gave the charge to Diasorin (+3,3%). The data for the first nine months of the year were higher than consensus expectations on revenues, Ebitda and net profit (126,7 million euros against the 124 million expected by analysts).

FINCANTIERI SINKS, TESTS OF PEACE IN MEDIASET

Fincantieri -5%: the Guardia di Finanza of Venice is carrying out 80 searches as part of an investigation into crimes of labor exploitation, corruption between private individuals, fraudulent declarations and the issuing of false invoices on 19 shipbuilding companies working on behalf of Fincantieri. 

Mediaset (-0,1%) has started the first talks with Vivendi to try to resolve the dispute over the governance system of MediaforEurope, the Dutch holding company into which the Italian and Spanish activities of the Cologno group should merge, as part of a pan-European expansion project.

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