When will the divorce between the UK and the European Union begin? How long will it last? What scenario should we expect? These are the main questions left open by the referendum on Brexit, the consultation that last June 23 sanctioned, surprisingly, the victory of the "Leave". At the moment the possibilities on the table are different. Here are nine.
1. TWO YEARS OF NEGOTIATIONS
The outgoing prime minister David Cameron has handed over the responsibility for the negotiations to his successor (probably Boris Johnson), who however will not be elected before October. The EU wants to start the process as soon as possible, but to give the formal go-ahead it is necessary for the UK to request the application of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. At that point, two years will begin to conclude the deal, which can only be extended with the agreement of the other 27 member countries.
2. THE RUN BACK
The Brexit referendum of 23 June was not binding, but consultative. This means that, in theory, the London Parliament - perhaps after new elections - could not even ratify the result, ignoring the consultation altogether. Threats of secession from Scotland and Northern Ireland could thus be silenced. However, it would remain to be assessed what effect such a sensational reverse gear would have on public opinion.
3. THE NEGOTIATION WITHOUT END
Pro-Brexit politicians want to deal with Brussels, but without immediately triggering the two-year countdown. According to them, the 24-month calculation should only start after a new all-encompassing agreement is reached, which would take about 5 years. It seems very difficult for Brussels to accept a similar perspective, because it would mean placing the EU in a weak negotiating position, remaining indefinitely in a climate of uncertainty and encouraging Eurosceptic movements across the continent.
4. THE SCOTTISH VETO
Last week, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon threatened to place an unspecified veto on Great Britain's exit from the EU. The alternative is to hold a referendum on secession from London similar to the 2-year one, but with much more likelihood of success: Scotland voted against Brexit (No reached 60%) and could remain within the Union as an independent country. However, this too would be easier said than done: first of all because Edinburgh would like to continue using the pound, but also because, in order to join, the Scots would have to put themselves on a waiting list behind those who have already started the process (such as Serbia). .
5. BLACKMAIL
Some supporters of Brexit understood the referendum essentially as an instrument of blackmail against the EU, a lever to be able to win privileges superior to those London already enjoys and thus remain within the Union, but in conditions of greater favor. If Europe were to accept a compromise of this type, it would expose itself to similar initiatives by other member countries. In any case, the hypothesis of a "special partnership" for Great Britain has already circulated in the past.
6. THE NORWEGIAN MODEL
One of the most insistently circulated hypotheses foresees that, once it leaves the EU, the United Kingdom will join the European Economic Area (EEA) or the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which includes countries such as Norway, Switzerland or Iceland. The problem is that these States contribute to the EU budget and keep the borders open to the transit of EU citizens. Two fronts on which the pro-Brexit leaders could not give in, given that during the referendum campaign they railed against transfers to the EU and EU immigrants.
7. EXIT THROUGH THE DOOR AND RETURN THROUGH THE WINDOW
Some jurists (especially British) believe that, at will, London could retract the act of leaving the EU at any time. Others maintain instead that the consent of the majority, if not unanimously, of the other 27 member countries would be necessary.
8. SECOND CHANCE
After a few years of divorce, if the separation doesn't work, Britain could rejoin the European Union. Of course, at that point the negotiation for the return would certainly be unfavorable for London, which would have to renounce the privileges it is now granted.
9. THE RIP
It is the most dramatic scenario and, fortunately, also one of the least likely. Basically, once the famous article 50 has been activated, the UK could decide to leave the EU even before the expiry of the two years, without having closed any negotiations. It would be an economic disaster for everyone, since reprisals would be inevitable, especially on the commercial and administrative front.
