The Eurozone slips into recession. According to the latest forecasts published by the European Commission, this year euro area GDP will contract by 0,3%, a figure well below the +0,5% indicated in the previous estimates. For the entire European Union of 27, however, there is talk of stagnation, while previously a +0,6% had been calculated.
Italy will drop by 1,3%: a clearly worsening figure compared to his economic forecasts of last autumn, when there was still talk of growth, albeit minimal (+0,1%). Bringing up the rear will be Greece and Portugal, which respectively will suffer drops in GDP of 4,4 and 3,3%. Spain will drop by 1%, while Germany will manage to tick a +0,6% and France a +0,4%.
However, the Commission points out that improvements are expected from the second half of the year: we should see a "modest growth". Inflation forecasts were then slightly revised upwards, now forecast at 2,1% in the euro area and 2,3% in the EU 27. The general levels of confidence "remain at low values, however tensions financial markets are easing”, commented the vice president of the European commission, Olli Rehn, head of economic affairs and the euro.
Returning to Italy, according to the Commission, there was a "negative stimulus to growth” in the second half of 2011, equal to -0,6 percentage points, much worse than the -0,1% expected in the autumn forecasts (published last November 10), to which must be added “a worsening also of growth prospects for the first half of 2012”, with “a contraction of a further 0,7% of GDP in the first quarter and another 0,2% in the second quarter”.
In the second half of the year, according to the EU executive, "economic activity should stabilise, provided that there is no further worsening of the situation on the financial markets and that there is a spread of around 370 basis points between government bonds Italians and Germans at 10 years old”.
