Greece could be closer to a goal that until yesterday seemed impossible to achieve: the now famous debt restructuring.
Opening a glimmer of a possible agreement between Athens and the Eurogroup held today in Amsterdam was President Jeroen Dijsselbloem who announced to the press "steps forward on numerous fronts".
Words that reveal the arrival of a new agreement that could also overcome the obstacles posed by the International Monetary Fund. There are two fundamental aspects: in the event that the Greeks fail to meet the budgetary objectives, Alexis Tsipras should launch a new three billion euro package of cuts, in addition to moving forward on the path of reforms requested by the Troika. In exchange, foreign creditors would be ready to meet the request to restructure the debt, implementing a plan to revise maturities and rates. By next week, finance ministers are expected to put options regarding the project's delivery mechanisms on the table.
This time it really seems to be the good one. Greece and the Eurogroup would have finally found a meeting point on the most delicate issues which until now had been the subject of numerous frictions: in addition to debt, also pension reform, tax reform and non-performing loans.
As regards the budget objectives, the IMF reiterated that, without a sharp cut in debt, the estimates can never be respected. In the wake of Washington's convictions, the European Union would have softened its position. If Tsipras launches cuts for a further 3 billion euros in the event that the primary surplus of 3,5% by 2018 is not reached, Brussels will give up on its debt. At the Eurogroup meeting there was a common point of view on a possible debt reprofiling without, however, applying a cut in the nominal value, without a 'haircut'. This was revealed by the number one of the Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde: "On the basis of our analysis of the sustainability of the Greek debt it is possible to operate using all existing devices", except for a haircut.
The definitive agreement on aid (5 billion) should arrive by July, the month in which 3,5 billion of debts to foreign creditors will mature. Otherwise, Athens will come back to the brink again and we could start talking about Grexit again. Without the start of the new tranche of loans, Athens would once again be on the brink of bankruptcy.
