TOKYO'S GDP HOLDS DOWN: -1,7%. WAITING FOR THE GERMAN DATA
THEY KEEP BANKS AND POLICIES, SPOTLIGHT ON TELECOM
The notes of war that echo from theUkraine. Signs of a slowdown in economies are coming from Asia. The Japanese GDP, thanks to the VAT increase, fell by 1,7% in the second quarter (annualized rate -6,8%) without, however, impressing the Tokyo Stock Exchange +0,2% who expected even worse. Now we hope for new measures to support the recovery.
Surprise, however, for the stop, as sudden as it is violent, of the credit disbursed in China: only 273 billion renminbi against a forecast of 1.500 billion. Immediate reaction from Hong Kong -0,2% and Shanghai -0,8%, before the datum in positive ground.
Day without great story a Wall Street, conditioned by news arriving from Ukraine, where the risk of direct involvement by Russia is growing: the Dow Jones index fell by 0,06%, the S&P 500 by 0,13% and the Nasdaq by 0,27%.
Under pressure i energy stocks: Brent trades at 102,79, close to its 13-month low. The drop in crude oil it also weighs on the oil sector of Piazza Affari: Eni lost 1,2%, Saipem -0,5%, Tenaris -0,9%.
The descent of the euro: 1,3368 against the dollar. Much more tense and worried, after all it was the session of the European markets, all down after the publication of the Zew Investor Confidence Index in Germany, dropped in August to 8,6 from 27,1 in July and well below the estimates of economists London -0,1%, Paris -0,8%, Frankfurt -1,2%. The momentum was hampered by the publication of the Zew index on investor confidence in Germany, which fell to 8,6 in August from 27,1 in July and well below economists' estimates.
The Piazza Affari failed the third consecutive hike. Although the FtseMib index managed to mark a gain of more than one percentage point in the middle of the session, there was a turnaround in the afternoon and the conclusion is a drop of 0,2%. The performance of peripheral bonds is excellent. The spread is down by 4 basis points to 167 for a 10-year BTP yield of 2,73% (yesterday it was 2,78%).
Despite the doubts raised by Moody's on our public accounts, the Treasury easily placed 7 billion 12-month BOTs at a yield of 0,279%, a new all-time low. The data from the previous auction was 0,387%. The requests received were equal to 1,8 times the quantity offered.
ACHTUNG! GERMANY HOLDS UP TOO
The growth of the GDP of the eurozone, according to analysts' forecasts, did not go beyond 0,1% in the second quarter. The convoy was affected by the braking of the German locomotive: on Thursday, at the appointment with the final balances of the economy, the Germany it may even have dropped below zero as a result, above all, of the Ukraine crisis. Stanley Fischer, number two at the Fed, has already signaled the significant consequences of this surprise stop by Berlin on the US economy: the central bank will be prompted to review the calendar for rate hikes. Meanwhile Moody's confirmed the triple and stable outlook on Germany, given the advanced, diversified and highly competitive economy. However, he warned that a declining workforce and aging population could negatively impact the potential growth rate and sustainability of the Federal Republic's social security system.
RESCUE OF MONTE PASCHI, LIKE POP. ETRURIA SPA
Lo declining spreads helped the banking sector rebound. Among the liveliest blue chips stand out: Mount Paschi +4,76%, match down by 2%. The institute thus celebrated the appointment of Marcello Clarich at the top of the Foundation.
Meanwhile Imi Bank it reduced the target price from 1,5 to 1,15 euro, confirming the hold recommendation. For analysts, the bank's quarterly accounts were very weak with an interest margin and loan loss provisions being the main negative surprises.
In the rest of the sector well Mediobanca + 1,6% Unicredit and Ubi, both +0,45%. Pop Emilia +0,95% and Banco Popolare +0,92% also rose, recovering to 11 euros after the heavy decreases of last week. On the other hand, achievements penalize Popular Milan -2,4% among the best blue chips on the Milanese list since the beginning of the year.
A separate note deserves it Popular of Etruria +8,19% in the aftermath of the decision to mandate the president Lorenzo Rosi for the transformation of the institute from a cooperative into a joint-stock company. "The objective - explained Rosi - is to open the bank's capital to international investment funds, without limiting itself to looking only at Italian cooperative banks". The transformation should arrive by mid-October."
FITCH PROMOTES ITALIAN INSURANCE
Contrasted reactions on the front of insurance: Generali -0,39%, Cattolica -0,58%. Only UnipolSai +0,83% benefits from Fitch's positive opinion on the sector. The rating agency improved the outlook for the insurance sector in Italy from negative to stable following the better-than-expected accounts released by the companies at the end of the first half. The change also reflects the conviction of therating agency that the capital levels and profitability of the sector "will prove resilient in the face of the Italian recession". Among the positive notes is the increase in premium income from the life business which, together with the drop in interest rates on Italian bond issues, is supporting profitability.
FIAT: THE WITHDRAWAL DOESN'T CHANGE. NEW PARTNER FOR PRYSMIAN
Fiat +1,6%, closed higher for the fourth consecutive day. A note from the group decisively denies the rumors about a possible upward adjustment of the maximum limit of 500 million euros to be allocated to withdrawal requests. The company, we read, "has no intention of either giving up this limit or raising it". Cnh Industrial +1,8% and Exor +1,5% also grow. Among the industrialists in decline Prysmian -1,49%: Barclays, while confirming the overweight opinion, cut the target price to 18,50 euros. The US fund Massachusetts Financial Services acquired a 2,008% stake.
MEDIASET SALES THANKS TO TELECOM RUMORS
Among other blue chips: little moves Enel -0,1% and the subsidiary EnelGreenPower. They go up Autogrill +1,45% and Gtech +3,04%, after the go-ahead from the US authorities for the purchase of IGT, Mediaset +0,97% well bought after the promotion to 'overweight' by HSBC but also on the new rumors that bring Telecom Italia -0,72% closer to Vivendi, an operation which, according to some scenarios, would have as its point of arrival a Telecom-Mediaset merger. In luxury, Tod's fell -0,4%, which was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse. Ferragamo instead rebounds +1,9%, sponsored by HSBC. Finally, As Roma took a profit - -9,2% after the announcement on Monday, with the stock exchange closed, that UniCredit sold its entire stake in Neep Roma holding for 33 million euros to the group headed by the American James Pallotta.
