We are preparing to enter the so-called Phase 2 of Covid19 and it is to be hoped that it will happen soon. When this begins, the country's society, economy and culture could undergo radical and profound changes. They will not be exempt the telecommunications system, the world of audiovisual, broadcast and broadband. Let's see a brief overview.
First the Internet network: when the crisis broke out, the first alarm was on system tightness in terms of load capacity and resistance, in the face of a sudden and unexpected bandwidth demand like never before. The first move was that of Thierry Breton, European Commissioner for the Internal Market, who asked the big names Amazon, YouTube and Netflix to reduce the bitrate of their broadcast streams. The initiative was expected to last 30 days and cover 25% of the traffic. Now the deadline is near and no one has mentioned the renewal. At stake is the stability of the market in a moment of intense competition and the new game will also be played on the quality of the signal. Who will be willing to give again technological sovereignty paid in a nutshell in favor of direct or indirect competitors?
Behind this contest is the whole new world that has been discovered with the telework, which requires huge bandwidth capacities and on which there will be much to write as far as it will be able to completely modify production models and social organization.
5G
We come to 5G, which, on the frequencies purchased by telephone operators, should start its roadmap starting this year. Broadcasters are required to free up frequencies around the 700Mhz band to give space to innovative AI and IOT services. In recent days, the Ugo Bordoni Foundation, an emanation of the Mise, has released the first technical report on the verification of TV reception equipment which leads back to the transition to DVB-T2. The text states that, out of approximately 24,3 million Italian families, 22,2 access TV through the DTT platform, while 1,3 million use other platforms (satellite, IP network), over 700 thousand declare they do not own a television and about 120 have a television set but are not equipped with a terrestrial reception antenna. Translated into current Italian: Covid has put a serious mortgage on this process and no one is able to imagine how and when the problem will be solved.
It is important to note that the report was completed at the very beginning of Covid and was unable to take into account the dramatic consequences that this could have in the near future on the entire TLC sector. As we have written several times on FIRSTonline, users would have had to start an expensive and demanding process of migrating from their TV to a new device capable of receiving signals in the new frequencies. But is it conceivable that, in such radically changed system conditions, users could have good intentions of spending money in exchange for little more than nothing? The motivational boost that could in some way support the purchase of a new television will be decidedly weakened by the lack of major television events, such as the European soccer championships or the Tokyo Olympics. Furthermore, broadcasters could suffer sharp contractions both in terms of new productions (see live shows, entertainment with the presence of an audience in the studio, as well as dramas which will find great difficulty with external shots).
ADVERTISING
Another chapter destined to have a strong impact will be advertising. For example, in this period no one will have missed the almost total disappearance of commercials for the major car manufacturers, among the main customers on the market. Forecast data is not encouraging: as of January 31, Brand News proposed a potential growth of 1,9% while a survey carried out on April 1 among sector operators forecast double-digit losses in the order of 20%. The most direct consequence has already been shown by Mediaset when, even in the face of a significant increase in ratings, in recent days it had to resort to layoffs for a large number of employees.
RAI
But if Sparta mourns Athens doesn't laugh, and in Viale Mazzini things don't seem to be going much better. Net of the controversies and tensions between the parties that press on Rai to occupy spaces and positions (for a change), on the horizon of Phase 2, which it is to be hoped will start soon for Rai as well, old problems that have never been solved and others that are completely new due to Covid will arise again. Among the unresolved ones there is above all the postponement of the very expensive one to December Industrial Plan, which hardly anyone seems to believe anymore. Among the new problems will arise those relating to a role of the Public Service which will necessarily have to deal with what has happened in recent weeks in terms of authority, credibility and ability to respond fully to the questions posed by users both in terms of information and in terms of the editorial offer. Just one example: Rai Play which, as emerged in recent days from an internal company document revealed by Republic, doesn't seem to hold a candle to its direct competitors. When the thousands of employees will (can?) return to their offices, many things could be different and there are not a few of them who look with great concern at the future of their workplace.
