Lands of Arabia and African safaris. Turkey and South Africa are two emerging countries that have offered many satisfactions to investors in the last year. If the tip of Africa, more tied to Europe and to the Chinese giant, is suffering slightly from the Euro crisis, Turkey, a worthy heir to its role as a bridge between East and West, has been able to find allies in the Middle East who they hold up even in these difficult times.
TURKEY – Since the beginning of the year, the Turkish Stock Exchange has been one of the liveliest markets in the world: the Istanbul reference index, the MSCI Turkey, has gained 34,10% in local currency since January. But the ETFs of the Italian Stock Exchange linked to the same index and expressed in euros have gained more than 40% and the DWS Turkeyi fund has risen by 47% since the beginning of the year. The discipline of the economy has rewarded the Istanbul Stock Exchange: the debt/GDP ratio is 42%, the GDP has grown by around 9% in the last two years (although for 2012 growth is expected to be reduced to 3,9 10% due to the European crisis) and the deficit was reduced to 3% of GDP, which continues to be weighed down by massive energy imports. The banking sector is solid (the share of non-performing loans is less than 2011%) and profitable (lending activity grew by 40% in the first half of 28). Although it is an economy strongly linked to exports, Turkey has been able to differentiate its customers by finding interesting outlets in Middle Eastern countries. Finally, the country's demographics should not be underestimated: the average age is 1,3 years and the population growth is XNUMX% per year.
Foreign investments are growing encouraged by a medium-level country risk profile. According to Sace "the main economic risk factors are linked to the devaluation of the Turkish lira and the strong dependence on foreign capital". The lira has weakened in recent months and the Central Bank seems willing to implement expansionist policies. The devaluation of the currency is also worrying because the pressure on inflation is increasing, which should fall to 6,7% by the end of the year, but which has exceeded 9% in the last month driven by the increase in the cost of energy. Finally, the political situation, although stable, is still threatened by tensions between Islamists and secularists and between the government and Kurdish separatist groups.
SOUTH AFRICA - Despite the unrest in the mines in Marikana, (which led to the death of 44 miners including 34 killed by the police) on Wednesday 29 August the JSE's All Share Index, the index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, reached its all-time high at 35.897,69 points. Since the beginning of the year it has gained 10,64% continuing the upward trend that has characterized it for the last five years. The ETF MSCI South Africa, listed on the Italian Stock Exchange, has recorded an increase of 11,95% since January. And the economy of the last country counted among the BRICS (together with Brazil, Russia, India and China) continues to be the gazelle of Africa.
South African GDP has grown by an average of 3% over the past two years and is expected to increase by 2,5% this year due to the global slowdown. The debt-to-GDP ratio is under control, with more than half of the debt denominated in South African rands. However, the high private debt of households and unemployment of around 25% give rise to some fears about the country's future. The risk that Sace associates with South Africa is medium-low. The biggest concern at the moment is the slowdown in Europe, China and the United States, Johannesburg's main trading partners, especially with regard to mining exports.
