Donald Trump resumed his war with tweets. The US president froze the markets, up until then on positive ground, by announcing that from September 10 the United States will introduce 300% tariffs on XNUMX billion dollars of goods arriving from China, a decision that has sown panic among the markets. The feeling, however, is that the real target in the offensive is not only Xi Jing Ping, but also the Federal Reserve. The move, in fact, is intended to impose new and robust rate cuts on Jerome Powell to support the impact of the measures on the economy, which is already clearly slowing down.
RATES: A NEW CUT POSSIBLE IN OCTOBER
Wednesday night's cut, presented as a one-off move, is no longer enough: the Fed will probably have to bow to the demands of Trump's trade war and thus support Wall Street's buyback race with easy money, to the benefit of the electoral hopes of the President. At least this is how operators weigh it: the forecast of an imminent drop in rates jumped from 36 to 60% last night. The bond rally has also restarted: the 1,88-year Treasury Bill shot up, the yield fell, this morning we are at 2,04%, from XNUMX% the day before. Thus the chances of another cut rise, perhaps as early as October.
It is not the only news of the last hour, pending today's US labor market data.
ASIA DEEP RED. TOKYO PUNISHES KOREA
Heavy losses in Asia. Tokyo's Nikkei is on track to close 2,6% lower this morning. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 2,4%, Shanghai Composite 1,7%, Seoul's Kospi 0,7%. The negative variation of the Australian Stock Exchange was less extensive (-0,3%).
The Chinese renmimbi (-0,7%) slips to its lowest level for the year. The yen, down against the dollar yesterday due to the decisions of the Federal Reserve, has reversed course and is flying. The dollar-yen cross is at its lowest since the beginning of the year at 107 from 108,8 yesterday. South Korea's won, with the decline in the last few hours, is at its lowest level in the last two and a half years.
There is also the trade war between Tokyo and Seoul. Japan has approved the exclusion of South Korea from the list of privileged countries in matters of trade. Behind the decision affecting Samsung's smartphone chips lies the weight of history: the Tokyo government is furious because a Seoul court has affirmed that Koreans were deported to work in Japan during the domination between 1910 and 1945 have the right to seek compensation.
WALL STREET AND OIL ARE BREAKING DOWN
The euro holds its positions, rising against the dollar to 1,1075 yesterday evening, in conjunction with the publication of the ISM index on the expectations of purchasing managers of US manufacturing companies. The survey shows a worrying and persistent weakness in the sector, an issue that has rekindled the bond rally: the chances of another rate cut are rising, perhaps as early as October.
Closing down on Wall Street: Dow Jones -1,05%, S&P 500 -0,90%. The Nasdaq lost 0,79%.
Brent closed down 7% at $60,5 a barrel. North Sea crude traded at $62 a barrel this morning, up 2%.
Sharp decline yesterday in Piazza Affari Tenaris, -3,7% after the accounts. Saipem -0,82, Eni -0,76%
GOLD SUPERSTAR AT $1.445, COFINVEST DEBUTS
The great protagonist is gold, which rose like a rocket to 1.445 dollars an ounce, + 2,2%. During the night the movement lost strength and reversed: this morning the metal dropped by 0,7% to 1.332 dollars.
Yesterday he made his debut at Aim Confinvest (-1,6%), the Italian leader as market dealer of physical investment gold.
YESTERDAY'S POSITIVE EUROPE IS WAITING FOR THE STORM: -2% STARTING
The cuts are not finished. Yesterday the European Stock Exchanges solidly embraced the thesis that the slowdown in stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic still requires robust interventions. And so, aided by the decline in the euro, which has fallen to its lowest level in the last two years, yesterday's stock lists experienced a day of increases, punctuated by quarterly reports (not always positive, to tell the truth). But the news arriving from Wall Street froze the atmosphere: futures anticipate a sharp downward opening on all markets, starting with the German Stock Exchange, the hardest hit, together with Milan, by the resumption of the trade war, with expected losses over 2%.
Piazza Affari rose yesterday by 0,79%, to 21 points.
The other price lists in the Eurozone are on positive ground: in Paris (+0,70%) Société Générale takes off (+5%). Madrid also rose (+0,75%).
In Frankfurt (+0,53%) Siemens loses 4,03% after the accounts. Instead, Zalando takes flight (+13,32%) after having revised upwards the annual outlook on earnings.
Flat London (-0,03%). But behind the apparent calm, there was certainly no shortage of twists and turns.
LSE MASTER OF THE DATA OF ALL MARKETS
London Stock Exchange Group shares jump 5,9% after officially announcing $27 billion merger with financial information firm Refinitiv, leading to record 1,5% rise in European financial services index .
The Bank of England revised its growth forecasts downwards amid growing concerns over Brexit and the slowdown in the global economy, but gave no indication of falling interest rates. Britain is meanwhile accelerating its plan for a no-deal Brexit, allocating a further £2,1bn to stockpile medicines, hire border officials and fund one of the biggest peacetime advertising campaigns.
SPREAD AT 208, NEW LOW FOR THE BUND
Thwarted, in the midst of so many tensions, the debt market. Two and 10-year bonds are in negative territory, at 1,58% (against 1,54% on the eve), while thirty-year bonds are slightly positive.
In closing, the spread rose to around 207 basis points, from 206 at the start and from 202 yesterday.
The 2029-year Bund rate fell to a new low in February 0,505, touching -XNUMX%.
In July, the balance of the state sector closed with a surplus of 3,2 billion, down by about 7,3 billion compared to the corresponding month last year (10,5 billion).
INTESA AND ENEL, FULL FORWARD
Once again today, Piazza Affari was filled with quarterly reports.
leap of Understanding: +2,02% after the results announced on Wednesday. Among the financial Mps Bank +3,4% after the publication of the quarterly data. Banca Mediolanum +3,2%: Citi raises its target price to 7 euro. Generali (+0,3%) closed the first half with an operating profit of 2,72 billion euros, slightly above analysts' estimates. The Combined Ratio was better than expected, at 91,8%. Business plan targets confirmed.
Sale Enel (+0,66%) after what CEO Francesco Starace defined as "excellent results": 2,277 billion (+20,2%) net ordinary income, on which the dividend is calculated. Debt also increased to 45,3 billion (+10%)
PROMOTED WITH FULL MARKS FOR PRYSMIAN, CNH AND DIASORIN
Prysmian (+2,7%) accelerated after the publication of first-half data, reporting growth in net income to 192 million euro.
In evidence CNH (+1,9%), which closed the first six months of the year reporting a net profit growth trend of 13,3%, to 691 million dollars.
Excellent performance for Diasorin (+2,8%): Banca Akros confirmed its accumulated rating by raising the target price to 113,4 euro from 108,6.
Post (+1%) announced that it will pay an interim dividend of around one-third on November 20 on 2019 earnings, which we estimate at €0,46 per share. The solvency margin is good, now at 242%, growing both as a result of market trends and internal efficiency actions.
CAMPARI SELLS THE DREAM VILLA
Campari (-0,36%) announced the sale of Les Cèdres, the residence in Saint Jean-Cap Ferrat acquired at the time of the purchase of Grand Marnier. Estimated price: 350-400 million euros. The buyer is still anonymous.
Salini Impregilo +5,5% awaiting the announcement of the launch of Progetto Italia.
