Donald Trump has chosen, reluctantly, the path of dialogue with the Democrats. In his State of the Union address, the President reaffirmed his convictions but did not air the use of special powers for the construction of the Wall. Trump also announced an upcoming meeting with Korean dictator Kim. "Without me - he said - today we would be at war with Pyongyang". It was an 81-minute speech, at the same time divisive but peppered with appeals for unity, focused on the positive trend of the American economy. Behind Trump is the great democratic enemy Nancy Pelosi who has invited two transgender soldiers for the occasion.
Thus the risk of a new blockade of the US federal budget, one of the unknowns that threatened the Wall Street rally, up from five sessions on the momentum of the Fed's softer policy. The positive climate has infected the other Stock Exchanges, except those of Greater China (Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea closed) stopped for the celebration of the start of the year of the pig.
THE ECB HOLDS BACK ON THE NEW LIQUIDITY
Europe is also advancing, despite the unknown Brexit and Italian fibrillation. But, according to Bloomberg, the temperature is rising again in the ECB: not everyone is convinced of the usefulness of injecting new liquidity into the market (see TLTRO) partly because the economic situation is not so bad, partly because it does not want to give the suspect of going to help the big banks that drain the new liquidity, including Deutsche Bank.
In this frame the plus sign prevails everywhere.
Tokyo (+0,2%) and Sydney (+0,3%) rose. Toyota's profits fell sharply (-1,5%) in the third quarter due to the drop in sales on the US market.
Brent oil is unchanged at 62 dollars a barrel, from -0,8% yesterday. The Wall Street Journal reports that OPEC intends to forge a formal relationship with Russia. Qatar has struck a deal with Shell for a joint investment in Texas on gas, a blow to the Saudi embargo against the emirate. In Piazza Affari Eni +0,9%, Saipem +0,5%, MainFirst starts hedging with a target of 5,10 euros.
Positive closing for the US markets: Dow Jones +0,68%, S&P 500 +0,47%. The Nasdaq is up 0,74%.
FREDA LEADS NEW RECORDS BY ESTEE LAUDER (+11,6%)
At the top of the index stands out once again the exploits of Fabrizio Freda, the Neapolitan who leads Estée Lauder, +11,6% yesterday after the cosmetics giant's record profits in China. Freda figures in the top ten of the highest paid managers.
A record day also for the Ralph Lauren brand (+8,4%) after better-than-estimated numbers.
Alphabet recovers (+0,84%) already under fire after the increase in costs reported by the quarterly.
BULL BAGS ALSO IN EUROPE. MILAN +1,16%
Positive closure for Piazza Affari after a weak start on the edge of parity. In the end the index, bringing up the rear in Europe, gained 1,16 to 19.833 points.
The other Stock Exchanges performed better: Frankfurt +1,75%; Paris +1,66%; Madrid +1,32%.
BP SENDS THE CITY INTO ORBIT. CONSOB IN SAVONA
At the top is London (+2,06%). The City is driven by BP (+5,17%) following the 2018 performance higher than expected and the upward revision of estimates on future gas and oil production.
White smoke for Consob. the government has indicated Paolo Savona, current minister for European Affairs, to the presidency of Consob, who has been vacant for over 4 months due to the difficulties faced by the majority in reaching an agreement on a name that Colle also likes.
A SECURITY ARRIVES AT 30 YEARS, THE BTP HOLDS OFF
The Italian bond market closed a session with a minus sign which saw a progressive deterioration during the afternoon. And that took a definitively negative turn after the announcement of the new thirty-year issue, which sent the current benchmark to sink (March 2048). Less marked decline for the ten-year bond which rose to 2,79% – but the differential with the yield of the Bund returned above 262 basis points – and the decline in the two-year bond was even more contained. But in the face of the drop in volumes, in recent days, there has been relative stability in the future on the ten-year March and June 2019, a sign that the rise in rates (about 20 basis points) is mainly attributable to the weakening of demand, while the sales pressure is marginal.
The market is wary as we await the revision of the European Commission's estimates expected for tomorrow and the regional elections in Abruzzo on Sunday.
3,5 BILLION COUPONS ARRIVE FOR INTESA SHAREHOLDERS
The banks are in the spotlight (+1,7% the sector index), in line with the rest of Europe.
Intesa San Paolo +1,6%. Net income (4,05 billion) is in line with expectations. Confirmed the high dividend. The management will propose to the shareholders' meeting to distribute 3,499 billion euros higher than the 3,419 of a year ago and equal to 85% of profits.
In light Mediobanca and Banco Bpm, up by over 3%. Unicredit +2% which will announce the accounts during the day.
Bper (+0,2%) was among the worst banking stocks: the Modena institute should take over Unipol Banca for 200 million euro.
THE CAR PUT IN FIVETH, PIRELLI'S REVENGE
Among the industrialists, the automotive sector bounces back. FCA rises by 2,4%, Ferrari +1,72%. Pirelli +3,6% led by the Finnish Nokian Tires which announced falling profits in the fourth quarter but above analysts' expectations.
Telecom Italia sales +1,9%. Yesterday there was the first meeting with Open Fiber on the single network.
In contrast Stm-1% conditioned by the cautious outlook of rivals Infineon and Ams.
AMPLIFON AND RECORDATI SUPERSTAR, THUMP OF RCS
Amplifon (+4,5%) and Recordati (+3,24%) are up and running. Sale Molmed (+2,5%) in the wake of the announcement that the German public health insurance system has approved the reimbursement of the drug Zalmoxis.
Rcs heavy (-6,6%) despite Urbano Cairo indicating a positive margin of 156 million for 2018, slightly above the 152 million expected, for example by Equita.
Giglio Group +6% after the presentation of the guidelines of the new plan, focused exclusively on e-commerce and China.
For the Italian banking system, the achievement of the Mrel requirements does not represent a relevant issue as it does not have a large deficit to fill. This was stated by the chairman of the Single Resolution Board Elke
Koenig on the sidelines of a conference at the Cattolica. “We still have a long way to go for the whole of Europe regarding Mrel, in terms of quantity and quality, but Italy is certainly ahead of not having a big deficit,” Koenig said.
