The spotlights are turned off on Moscow after the excellent organization of the World Cup. Attention shifts today to Helsinki due to the much-anticipated discussion and questionable situation summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.
At the same time, in Beijing, premier Li Kequiang hosts the president of the EU Commission Jean Claude Juncker and the number one of the Council of Europe Donald Tusk in the difficult attempt to create an anti-US front on tariffs.
Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is slowing down. The gross domestic product recorded a growth of 6,7% in the second quarter, a slight slowdown compared to the previous 6,8%.
The financial markets welcomed the news with some nervousness, despite it being in line with Beijing's forecasts, which has a target of 2018% for 6,5. The Shanghai CSI index loses 0,5%, Chinese shares do worse in Hong Kong (-1%). Weighs the fall of Xiaomi (-9,6%). The other Asian price lists are also weak. Tokyo, closed for the Sea holiday, is missing today.
BEIJING INDUSTRY SLOWS DOWN
The nervousness linked to the tariff war largely explains the negative reaction of the market. In this light, the more robust than expected drop in industrial production in June, only 6% year on year, below the +6,5% expected, is worrying. The lower growth in robot orders (+7% against the previous +23%) is striking, an indication of investors' caution in the face of the crisis with the USA.
But the GDP figure also confirms that China is transforming itself into a mature economic system driven by consumption: retail sales are up 9%, just above expectations. Meanwhile, investments in infrastructure and real estate are declining and attempts are being made to reduce the dependence of growth on exports (today 19% of GDP against 31% at the beginning of the decade).
Brent-type oil is down 0,5%, at $75 a barrel. During the summit between Putin and Trump, there could also be room for energy issues. The White House, in view of the mid-term elections, wants at all costs to bring down fuel prices. For this reason, writes Bloomberg, the leaders of the Trump administration would be thinking of using crude oil stocks.
NETFLIX ACCOUNTS TODAY, SPOTLIGHT ON AMAZON DAY
The futures lead us to forecast a positive opening for Europe, weak London, positive indications on the US indices, awaiting the US and European quarterly reports. Today on Wall Street the curtain rises on the semester of Bank of America and Black Rock. When the stock exchange is closed, it will be Netflix's turn, which has just filled up with awards at the Emmy Awards and is called to confirm the record growth in subscriptions, accelerated by the landing on another huge market: India.
In the coming days, data from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, American Express and the Blackstone Group will arrive on Wall Street, as well as tech stocks such as Microsoft and IBM.
Markets today will also be eyeing Amazon sales on Prime Day, the day of the e-commerce giant's special offers.
In Europe, the results of Novartis (Wednesday), Volvo and Unilever (Thursday) stand out.
POWELL SPEAKS, DUTIES AT THE CENTER OF THE G20
The trade war will be at the center of discussions this week at the G20 in Buenos Aires, which will bring together finance ministers and central bank governors to take stock of the global economy situation.
There is also much anticipation for the words of Jerome Powell, who tomorrow will address questions from Congress on the trend of the American economy, on the timing of the interest rate tightening and, above all, on the effect of tariffs on the economy. Retail sales data will also be released on the same day. On Wednesday it will be the turn of the Beige Book.
Today the IMF publishes the update of the global economic forecasts.
DIGNITY DECREE, APPOINTMENTS TO THE CDP
In Italy today the launch of the examination of the dignity decree is taking center stage, which promises to be quite intense in the light of the controversy over the hypotheses of job cuts which implicitly would entail the launch of the provision. There is also expectation for Wednesday when the assembly of the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti will be convened to appoint the new board of directors: there are three eligible candidates. Also on Wednesday, Minister Luigi Di Maio is scheduled to speak in the Chamber of Deputies on the situation of the corporate crisis tables open to the Mise.
On Tuesday the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco, will have to intervene on Tuesday in the Report on the financial arbitrator and on the same day, in the Senate, the Minister of Economy Tria will present the guidelines of his dicastery.
On Friday evening, the Canadian agency Dbrs confirmed Italy's BBB (High) rating with a stable trend because “Italy's economic and financial fundamentals are gradually improving. The expected deviations from the current budgetary targets following the new political agenda - adds the note - are unlikely to significantly weaken the economic situation".
