Asian Stock Exchanges and Wall Street are up, in the belief that an agreement will soon arrive in the US Congress, before the closure of Parliament for the elections. A 45-minute phone call between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin raises hopes for an approximately $2 trillion-dollar economic aid package. The indices reflect the cautiously optimistic stance even if the Coronavirus does not stop and the duelists for the White House continue to beat each other up.
The S&P500 closed up 0,5% on Wall Street yesterday. The future of the same index gained 0,7% this morning.
In Asia, Tokyo's Nikkei -0,4%, Seoul's Kospi +0,4%, Mumbai +0,9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0,7%. The Shanghai Composite was down 0,4%.
QUARTERLY: FLY SNAP, BRAKE NETFLIX
The quarterly reports published yesterday provided a sufficiently reassuring picture: the strong demand for products for personal and domestic hygiene prompted Procter&Gamble to raise its revenue forecasts for 2020. Texas Instruments instead benefited from a vigorous increase in the demand for semiconductors for automotive electronics: The Dallas-based chipmaker released fourth-quarter estimates that beat analysts' expectations. Snap, the parent company of Snapchat, recorded an unexpected increase in users: +11 million in the third quarter, double what consensus had taken into account.
The negative note concerns Netflix, -6% after registering only 2,2 million more subscribers: the competition from the new platforms is felt, starting with Disney +, but even more so is the resumption of live sports broadcasts.
THE LAW AGAINST GOOGLE IS UNDERWAY
Donald Trump took the field against Google. The US Justice Department and 10 states have filed a lawsuit over antitrust violations by Google, accused of protecting its monopoly on both the search service and ads. With Apple, this agreement provides for the payment of XNUMX billion dollars a year. "We basically work as if we were a single company," said an Apple executive in a document filed in the investigation. But it is unlikely that the cause can limit the overwhelming power of the search engine.
A survey of Financial Times in collaboration with the Peter G Peterson Foundation showed that 46% of Americans interviewed consider President Trump's measures negative for the country's recovery, against 44% who evaluate them positively.
The dollar fell for the fourth consecutive day against its major counterparts, at 1,184 against the euro.
THE T-NOTE RISES, THE MARKET FORESEES BIDEN'S VICTORY
Bonds are starting to feel the effects of a Joe Biden victory, with what follows in terms of an increase in federal debt. The 0,82-year Treasury Note moved to a yield of XNUMX%, a level not seen for four months. The interest rate curve is getting steeper and steeper, also because, as the Financial Times, the bets on the accentuation of the movement have never been so high in the last ten years: the two-year – ten-year spread is at its highest since June, at 67 basis points.
Brent oil down 0,5% to 43 dollars a barrel. The American Petroleum Institute forecasts a 600-barrel increase in crude inventories last week.
MILAN AND MADRID LEAD THE EUROPEAN PRICE LISTS
Milan and Madrid, the capitals of the so-called periphery of the Eurozone, are advancing. The rest of the platoon marks time under the pressure of the contagion that does not stop. On 5 November, on the occasion of the publication of the autumn economic forecasts, he will have to admit the empty passage of the euro zone in the last three months of the year, moreover accompanied by further strong downside risks dictated by the uncertain trend of the pandemic. Hence the tension within the ECB: it is imagined to relaunch the Recovery Fund, increasing its firepower and making it permanent, and to reform the European Stability Mechanism (MES).
Piazza Affari closed at +0,56%, at 19.482. Only Madrid (+0,97%) does better than the Italian Stock Exchange.
The Italian government has sent the European authorities the Budgetary Planning Document, in which it revises the 2020 deficit downwards, bringing it to 10,5% of GDP from the 10,8% indicated in September.
GUALTIERI: NADEF HOLDS, DESPITE THE CONTAGIOUS ON THE RISE
In the interview published today by Sole24Ore, Minister Roberto Gualtieri says that the numbers of the public finance program do not change, due to the deterioration of the health situation. “The macroeconomic forecast presented in the Nadef remains valid. Downside risks exist and we certainly haven't hidden it, just read the Nadef. However, I would like to remind you that, as regards 2020, the -9% we estimate on the annual GDP data is based on a strong rebound in the third quarter, which in the light of the most recent data appears highly probable".
The other markets were weak: London was flat (+0,07%), Paris lost 0,27%. Frankfurt -0,92%.
UBS, ERMOTTI LEAVES WITH A RECORD PROFIT: +99%
The quarterly reports yesterday yielded some significant results. Reckit Benckiser shines (+2,5%) thanks to the increase in demand for corporate cleaning products due to the pandemic. Fly Logitech (+21,4%) leader in mice and other PC peripherals.
Sergio Ermotti takes his leave with a bang from UBS (+2,5%), who will leave the bank in December after recording a 99% leap in third-quarter profit thanks to the investment banking boom. “I have never regretted going against the tide,” comments the banker famous for his high salaries.
Julius Baer also rose (+5%) after having sold 30% of the capital of Kairos to some managers of the company.
RAIN OF NEWS FOR BONDS: BTP AT 0,74%
Yield of the BTP up to 0,74%, +2 basis points (maximum 0,77%) on a day of great news: the "roll" of the reference ten-year BTP, the launch of first Sure EU bond, the Treasury's announcement that it will soon issue a Global bond denominated in dollars and a new Btp Futura.
SURE, THE BOND THROUGH THE STARS: DEMAND BEATS OFFER 14 TO 1
Boom in applications for the first bond issued by the European Union, over 233 billion euros, for the operation that starts the collection of funds for the Sure unemployment programme. Demand was almost 14 times higher than the 17 billion euros that the EU raised, with 10- and 20-year bonds.
Commenting on the success of the operation, the director general of the Treasury Alessandro Rivera said he was not worried by the increase in supply with EU bonds, and indeed saw "a positive carryover effect in the reduction of spreads in the eurozone".
THE NEW FUTURA BTP IS ON THE LEAD
The Italian government bond dedicated to retail is also back, the BTP Futura, offered from 9 to 13 November: the duration will be shorter than the first issue: eight years instead of the previous ten. The mechanism of increasing coupons and rewards for those who hold the instrument in their portfolios remains, ranging from a minimum of 1% to a maximum of 3% based on the trend in GDP over the next few years.
A GLOBAL IN DOLLARS FROM THE TREASURY SOON
In addition to the launch of the Global in dollars within the year and the launch in November of the second Btp Futura dedicated to retail, via XX Settembre said that the issue of the expected green bonds should materialize at the beginning of 2021 at the latest and that the securities could also be addressed to private customers.
BUSINESS PLACE HUNTING FOR BANK MERGER, BPER +9,75%
The fever for bank mergers has exploded in Piazza Affari. Bper surges (+9,75%) after the conclusion of the capital increase and the placement of the rights. Banca Bpm runs (+3,08%) supported by expectations for a combination with Credit Agricole Italia. Unicredit is up (+2,32%) also on the boost of a possible merger with Banca Montepaschi (+1,32%), yesterday the board allocated 500 million to a fund for lawsuits. Pop Sondrio (+3,46%) and Banca Profilo (+3,8%) are also under the lens of speculation.
ATLANTIA -3,2%: CDP'S OFFER "IS NOT SUITABLE"
Atlantia -3,17%. The sale of Aspi is still on the high seas. CDP's offer does not comply with the request according to the Benetton company because it is only a preliminary offer, while the company expected a binding offer. Not only that: the price range indicated - between 8,5 and 9,5 billion for 100% of Aspi - is considered unsatisfactory (the Tci fund, Atlantia's second shareholder, has always spoken of 11-12 billion) and therefore there are no conditions, as hoped for by the CDP, to postpone Atlantia's meeting of 30 October, to decide on the auction of Aspi or alternatively on the demerger. But it still comes.
Utilities performed well: Hera +2,11%, Snam +1,75%, Terna +0,97% and Italgas +0,98%. Enel progress (+1,51%): the company has launched, through Enel X, digital payment services.
AUTOGRILL TAKES OFF IN THE USA, ENAV MAKES RWANDA FLY
Among the mid caps, Autogrill increased (+3,22%) after the data provided by the Transportation Security Administration, which shows that last Sunday for the first time since March the number of admissions to American airports exceeded one million (- 60% year over year).
Well done Enav (+2,02%), which, through its subsidiary Ids AirNav, a company specializing in aeronautical information management systems, was awarded a contract worth 2,2 million dollars for Rwanda Airports Company.
