Today at 18 pm Italian time, Donald Trump should announce the duties on steel and aluminum. But the prospect of a trade war is less scary. Yesterday, after a deep red start on Wall Street, moods changed after the words of Sarah Sanders, Donald Trump's spokeswoman. The measures, she explained to the media, will not affect Canada and Mexico for now, pending a three-way agreement for the renewal of NAFTA in the next 30 days. In any case, there will be no generalized measures but they will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. In short, there will not be a global war, but a targeted action whose main objective is China, considered a serious threat to the United States by Peter Navarro, the theoretical economist of protectionism that Trump has put in charge of the trade policy of the United States.
CHINESE EXPORTS FLY. DOLLAR UNDER STRESS
The data of Chinese exports, up by 36% in February (+20% since the beginning of the year) have the flavor of the challenge. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit rose in the month to 56,6 billion, the highest figure since October 2008.
However, the situation remains high-risk, also due to Trump's unpredictability, and this contributes to increasing expectations for today's decisions by the ECB: any sign of a tightening of forward guidance on the euro (traded this morning at 1,2402 but rose yesterday to 1,2447) could trigger strong selling on the US currency.
In this context, however, the markets report skies tending to clear. Tokyo is starting to close with an increase of 0,4%. The dollar yen exchange rate moved little, at 106. Chinese stock markets did well: Hong Kong +1,4%, on the figure for Chinese exports. CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges +0,6%. The markets of South Korea +04% and India +0,5% also advanced.
Wall Street started off yesterday with a steep drop (S&P 500 -0,97% in the early stages) and then recovered most of the fall. The Nasdaq closed up 0,33%, the S&P500 just below parity -0,05% The Dow Jones lost 0,33%, weighted down by the oil companies.
On the macro front there are other comforting signals on employment. In February, 235.000 new private sector jobs were created, down from 244.000 in January, but above the 200.000 expected. The company that processes this figure, ADP, also reports that there are "persistent gains in many industries, including hospitality and entertainment." Only the information sector is in decline.
Oil accelerates downwards - Brent to 65,5 dollars a barrel, after data on US inventories which rose by 2,41 million barrels. The WTI drops to 61,29 dollars a barrel (-2%).
The Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for US crude oil production to 10,7 million barrels a day, a level never seen in history.
In Piazza Affari, Tenaris loses ground (-1,3%) pending duties. On the other hand, Saipem +1,3% rose. Kepler Cheuvreux raised the target price of the stock from 4 to 4,1 euros, confirming the hold recommendation.
Bad times for cryptocurrencies. Japan has decided to tighten up on seven Bitcoin brokers, at the end of the investigation into the theft of 530 million from the Coincheck-Intantor platform, the Sec has established that companies that deal with the sale and purchase of virtual currencies must be registered with the Commission.
THIRD RAISE IN A ROW FOR MILAN, WAITING FOR DRAGONS
Positive day for European price lists, already focused on the meeting of the ECB directorate and Mario Draghi's communications in the press conference set for 14 pm. It is the general opinion that the bank will not touch rates but could proceed with an adjustment in communication to the markets. According to the latest Reuters poll, 40 out of 56 of the analysts interviewed are convinced that by June Frankfurt will abandon the expansive 'bias', ie the hypothesis of an extension of Qe in terms of duration and/or amount.
The rebound in Milan continued: the FtseMib index recorded the third consecutive rise +1,22% to 22.473 points, the best European index.
Frankfurt also rose sharply (+1,09%). More modest increases, under half a percentage point for the other markets: Paris +0,34%, Madrid +0,14%. London +0,16%.
TREASURY AUCTIONS UNDERWAY: 6,5 BILLION BOTS ON MONDAY
On the debt market, the recovery of the Italian secondary continued: the spread between Italian and German ten-year bonds fell to 129.30 points (-1%) and the yield to 1,96%.
On Monday 12 March, the Ministry of the Economy will make 6,5 billion euros available to investors in 12-month BOTs, an amount identical to that of maturing securities.
Eurozone GDP growth in 2017 was 2,7%, in line with previous estimates. The European Commission, at the end of the six-monthly audit of the accounts, reports that Italy is part of the group of countries that record "excessive economic imbalances", even if there are signs of improvement. According to Brussels, the debt/GDP ratio should "stabilize at around 130% in the 2017-2019 period, but has not yet started a stable reduction path due to the worsening of the structural primary balance". In the short term, refinancing risks appear limited thanks to ample liquidity on the market and improvements in the external position. However, "the risks could emerge if the current accommodative line of monetary policy were to reverse".
RENAULT+5,6% POWERS UP THE CAR
The news of an imminent reorganization of the balance of the alliance between Renault and Nissan has shaken the scene of the European stock markets. The Japanese car manufacturer, with the full consent of the pdg Carlos Ghosn would take over most of the 15% held by the French state in the company. The novelty triggered the rise of the Renault share + 5,6% with immediate effect on the entire automotive sector, rising up to 1,6% to then close at +0,7% after the denial: "Any discussion on a share transaction involving Renault, Nissan or the French state is pure speculation,” the group spokesman said in the evening.
ACCELERATE BREMBO. FCA CONFIRMS THE MARELLI SPIN-OFF
In this context, the Italian sector was also positive, with Brembo's performance standing out (+2,78%). Fiat Chrysler (+1,04%) and Ferrari (+1,4%) also performed well. In addition to the promotion by Moody's, the confirmation of the Magneti Marelli spin-off which, said Sergio Marchionne, “will never be on sale, has contributed to supporting the Italian-American company's stock. There may have been some advances but I, Marelli, want to give it to the shareholders. I am thinking of a spin-off with a listing but without an IPO". Finally, the declarations of an executive of the Chinese Gac contributed to the increase: the alliance with FCA, today only industrial, could be extended on a financial level. Exor also rose (+2,4%).
TELECOM, GREEN LIGHT TO THE FLOOR AWAITING ELLIOTT'S PRESSING
Absolute protagonist of the day Telecom Italia +1,86% to 0,79 euro, the highest since October. After the leap on the eve of the leap, several elements contributed to sustaining the attention for the TLC stock: the announcement of the industrial plan for 2020 and the financial results as well as thewaiting for Elliott's underlying moves, the new shareholder who aims to gain the consent of the funds present in the shareholding structure. The partner, according to rumors, is in favor of the sale of a share in the network and Sparkle to reduce debts.
The board has mandated CEO Amos Genish to proceed with the legal separation of the network but the newco will remain 100% controlled by Telecom Italia for now. The 2018-2020 Strategic Plan focuses "on digital innovation as a key element for establishing itself in the Gigabit Society". Meanwhile, the group closed 2017 with revenues of 19,8 billion (+4,2%) and an Ebitda of 7,79 billion (-2,6%). Profit stood at 1,12 billion (-38%). The distribution of a coupon for savings shares only, equal to 2,75 cents per share, will be proposed to the meeting.
RECORD AT THE TOP. POST SHINES IN MANAGEMENT
There are numerous ideas for the day in the main basket. The best stock of the day was Recordati (+3,28% against +0,43% of the pharma sector average) which continues its recovery after the slide at the end of February. best stock in the main basket at +3,28%, against a European sector index standing at +0,43%.
Italgas (+2,68%) and Moncler (+2,51%) also stood out.
Assets under management shine in the finance sector: Poste Italiane increases by 2,6%, which has signed the implementing agreements to strengthen the partnership with Anima Holding. FinecoBank's march continues (+1,7%), which recorded net inflows in February (609 million, +33%) higher than Equita Sim's forecasts (hold, target price of 9,7 euro).
Positive day also for the banks: Bper +1,91%, Banco Bpm and Mediobanca +.7%, Ubi +1,45%. Unicredit (+1,67%) and Intesa (+1,14%) advance.
FINCANTIERI SETS OUT. DIASORIN. ACCOUNT OK
Fincantieri leaps 5,92% on recent news new orders and on the ok to issue non-convertible bonds.
Diasorin also did well, up 3,22% after the publication of the 2017 results with revenues, ebitda and profit growing and the proposal for an ordinary dividend up on the previous year, as well as an extraordinary coupon.
