Make way for business. Of course, there are geopolitical problems, both globally and domestically. But, as Antonio Cesarano of Intermonte notes, "there are two or three weeks of climate favorable to purchases: up to mid-August there shouldn't be any jolts or corrections". After that the music could change, especially in Italy. “Towards the end of the month it is better to close positions and sit on the sidelines, because the rating agency report cards are arriving for Italy: Fitch on August 31st and Moody's on September 7th”.
TESLA +11%. MUSK: I WILL GET OUT OF WALL STREET
In the meantime, the twists and turns on the financial markets are taking hold, favored by the long run of US stock prices: the Nasdaq +0,3% has achieved its sixth consecutive increase, the S&P 500 index +0,28% is half point from the all-time record. 80% of companies reporting quarterly beat estimates, the best performance ever.
The first page rightfully belongs to Testa (+11% to 370 dollars): the pyrotechnic CEO Elon Musk with a letter to his employees announced, with a tweet, his intention to withdraw the electric car manufacturer from Wall Street. "I am ready to offer $420 per share. The money is there." An unorthodox communication that caused a long halt in exchanges. The blitz followed the announcement that Saudi Arabia bought 2% of Tesla itself. Meanwhile, Saudi billionaire Al Walid has joined Snap (+8%) with a 2,3% stake.
The rush of Wall Street has overshadowed the weak outcome of the offer of T bonds. The 2,97-year US traded at 34%, following the weak placement of XNUMX billion dollars of government bonds with a three-year maturity. Also due to the weak demand from abroad, the supply/demand ratio was below average, at its lowest level in the last year and a half.
BEIJING'S EXPORT +12%, ASIA GOOD
Despite the US offensive on duties, the Chinese trade balance is holding up: in July exports rose by 12%, better than the +10% expected. Imports are growing strongly: +27%, against the +16% expected. China's trade surplus with the United States in July is 28 billion.
The yuan recovered slightly to 6,82 against the dollar. However, the Chinese stock market is stalling in anticipation of Donald Trump's new offensive: US duties of 23% on Chinese goods and merchandise amounting to 25 billion dollars will come into effect from August 16rd. These measures are added to those activated on July XNUMXth.
The other Asian markets were positive: Tokyo +0,4%, Hong Kong +0,5%, Taiwan +1%, South Korea +0,3%.
EURO RECOVERY, OIL AT HIGH
This morning the euro climbed back to 1,162 against the dollar. Gold's rebound continues, this morning at 1.215 dollars an ounce.
Oil is still at the top: Brent at 74,65 dollars, the WTI is close to 70. US crude inventories should have dropped by 3 million barrels, Bloomberg anticipates: the data will be published tomorrow.
TRIA: VAT WILL NOT INCREASE. DI MAIO RAISES THE SHOOT
In Italy, anticipation is rising for today's meeting in which the government will address the subject of the next budget law, the last important appointment before the summer break in Parliament. Yesterday, Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio reiterated that the provision will contain a cut in the tax wedge, the flat tax, the basic income and a revision of the Fornero law. There was no shortage of an appeal-challenge to the EU to adopt more expansive policies.
But in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore, in the meantime, Economy Minister Giovanni Tria assures that the maneuver will respect the budget constraints agreed with the Commission. “To reassure investors and families – says the minister – we must not postpone structural reforms, but give certainties about the prospects, and demonstrate that the country is capable of growing. For this reason, the relaunch of public investments and the effective launch of interventions on taxation and citizen's income, which are compatible with public finance constraints, are decisive”. The minister says that the safeguard clauses on the budget, those that could lead to an increase in VAT, shouldn't be triggered.
THE QUARTERLY REPORTS GIVE CHARGE TO PIAZZA AFFARI
A day of recovery for the European stock exchanges which took advantage of the drop in trade tensions, the strengthening of the yuan and the impact of positive quarterly results: the day was inaugurated by the brilliant data from Unicredit. Pirelli's better-than-expected earnings arrived in the afternoon. The purchases involved all sectors to a certain extent, starting with energy. The strong start of Wall Street helped consolidate the trend. The euro, recovering, however remains below 1,16 against the dollar.
Milan +1,27 with 21.854 points was the best place in the Old Continent.
The purchases also rewarded the other lists: Paris +0,81%, Frankfurt +0,4% despite the confirmation of the slowdown in Germany, German industrial production recorded a drop of 0,9% month on month in June, from +2,4 .0,52% in May. Madrid +XNUMX%.
London gains 0,7%, with the pound remaining at a standstill: the euro appreciates against the British currency by 0,27% and the exchange rate drops to 0,89499.
THE SPREAD LOWERED, 6 BILLION ANNUAL BOTS ON FRIDAY
The BTp/Bund spread closed down below the 250 basis points threshold on a day of sales on other Eurozone bonds. The yield differential between the 246-year Italian benchmark and the same German maturity in fact closed trading at 251 basis points, on the lows of the session and down from 2,88 points on the eve. The yield on Italian 2,90-year bonds was also down, closing at XNUMX%, from XNUMX% of yesterday's reference.
On the occasion of the annual Bot auction on Friday 10 August, the Ministry of the Economy will make available to investors 6 billion euros of the Bond maturing on 14 August 2019. There are 12-month Bots for 6,692 billion maturing.
FLY UNICREDIT, MUSTIER: WE GROW ALONE
Unicredit's accounts (+2,9%) brightened up the session: the second quarter of 2018 closed with revenues of 4,947 billion euros (they were 5,114 billion in March), exceeding the consensus expectations of analysts, stuck at 4,890 billion . Other relevant data:
– Operating costs slightly lower than expected, equal to 2,659 billion euros compared to 2,738 in the first quarter (consensus of 2,731 billion).
– Net profit was 1,024 billion from 1,112 billion in the previous quarter, but beyond analysts' expectations (at 975 billion euros).
During the conference call, the CEO Jean-Pierre Mustier has denied the will to proceed with acquisitions or alliances in Europe.
Among analysts Keefe, Bruyette & Woods appreciates the net profit above the consensus. Jefferies, which cites the positive surprise of the reduction in NPLs, signals a weaker capital than expected. Société Générale lowers the target price to 16,6 euros.
BPM SUFFERS, MANAGED RUNS
The rest of the banking sector was positive (+1,2% for the Italian basket against +0,7% for the European one), with the exception of Banco Bpm (-0,2%) which did not recover from the heavy drop in vigil.
In asset management, Anima rises by 4,7%. Azimut +1,6% after July harvest data released by the two companies. Fineco Bank +1,3%.
PIRELLI, CHAMPION FOR PROFITS
The best stock of the day was Pirelli: +3,88% waiting for accounts approved in the evening. In the first half of the year, the Pirelli group reported organic revenue growth of 5,5% to 2,63 billion euros thanks to the contribution of the High Value segment. Net profit jumped to 177,2 million euros from 67,7 million a year ago while profitability climbed 1,5 percentage points to 18%. The net financial position as at 30 June amounted to 3916,5 million euro compared to 4176,5 million at the end of the same period of 2017. With regards to the forecast data for 2018, the group confirmed its targets: adjusted Ebit above 1 billion and revenues expected at around 5,4 billion. The board also co-opted Ning Gaoning to the board, who was appointed chairman.
KEPLER PROMOTES SNAM
Among the utilities, Italgas (+2,6%) and Snam (+1,6%) advanced, rewarded by Kepler Cheuvreux with confirmation of the buy recommendation and the target price of 4,5 euros.
In luxury Moncler (+2,6%) and Salvatore Ferragamo (+2,1%) do well.
