The fiber of the financial markets these days is really strong. After a week of declines, the Bull has reared its head almost everywhere. Today, however, a demanding check is expected: the Zew index on the confidence of German companies, severely tested by the crisis in the East. Also relevant is the data on inflation in Italy.
The Asian stock markets closed in positive territory: Tokyo, after yesterday's rally, rose by 0,3%, on a par with the Asia Pacific index, supported by the GDP of Singapore, which grew slightly (but a negative figure was feared) and by the export boom in the Philippines.
Wall Street also closed with a moderate rise: The Dow Jones index advanced by 0,1%, the S&P500 by around 0,2% and the Nasdaq by 0,7%. Worth noting is Apple's progress of 1,3%. The recovery of the Old Continent is stronger: in Europe it has spread across all price lists and in all sectors. The London Stock Exchange gained 1%, Paris +1,2%, Frankfurt +1,9%. The recovery has not neglected the Moscow Stock Exchange +1,8%. The ruble is recovering by about one point against the euro.
MILAN SNOBES MOODY'S FORECASTS
In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 1,39%. The intervention by Moody's had no effect, which reduced the estimates of Italian GDP in 2014 to -0,1% from the previous +0,5% and corrected upwards the forecast of the 2014 public debt, bringing it to 136,4% from 135,8 .2,7%. The Deficit/GDP ratio is stable at XNUMX%.
On the government bond market, note the improvement in BTPs: the 2,78-year yield fell to 2,81%, from 4% on Friday, the spread down by 171 basis points to 1,3371. The euro weakened against the dollar. It trades at 1,3333 this morning, just above last week's low of 104,49. Oil slows down: Brent is now traded at 19 dollars a barrel - 97,80 cents), Wti at 28 dollars (- XNUMX cents compared to Monday).
FISCHER (FED): WEAK RECOVERY, RATES RAISES LONGER
The news arriving from the various crisis scenarios contributed to the recovery. In Ukraine, an agreement was reached between the European Union and Russia to have the Red Cross intervene to provide humanitarian relief for the tens of thousands of displaced people. Russia has announced that it has concluded military exercises on the border between the two countries. Meanwhile, a new truce has been signed in Gaza. The US has launched air strikes on Iraq hitting Islamic militants blocking their march on the Kurdish region of the country.
But, beyond these news worthy of confirmation, the return to the scene of Stanley Fischer, authoritative deputy of the Federal Reserve, gave strength to the Bull: "The global recovery is disappointing" said the banker who had for students Mario Draghi and Ben Bernanke at a conference in Sweden. The unexpected slowdown of some leading countries (see Germany) has prompted the US central bank to revise its long-term growth expectations downwards. An important signal above all because it comes from a very cautious banker, with a reputation as a "hawk". But Fischer's analysis didn't stop there. The severe recession from which the US has struggled to emerge, he added, could have permanently damaged the American economy with strong imbalances that will have to be tackled with careful therapy, so as not to compromise the results achieved with quantitative easing. His words have persuaded the markets that there will be no acceleration on the part of the Fed on the way to raising rates.
RECEIVED OF THE POPULAR, WHITE SMOKE FOR THE MONTE PASCHI FOUNDATION
The rise in Piazza Affari was led by the banks, thanks above all to the rally of some Popolari. The race of Banco Popolare stands out +8,24% after the results of the first half. The accounts also rewarded Bpm +3,36% and Bper +3,11%. Also noteworthy is the rally of Credito Valtellinese +9,45%: Exane reiterated the outperform recommendation, while lowering the target price from 1,35 to 1,25 euro. Less brilliant are Intesa +1% and Unicredit +0,3%.
Monte Paschi makes history in itself, which closed down by 1,8%. Short selling was still prohibited throughout the day today. In the evening, the Foundation appointed Antonella Mansi's successor: Marcello Clarich, full professor of administrative law at Luiss in Rome.
Insurance companies were also positive: Generali rose by 1,19%, UnipolSai +2,17%. In evidence Cattolica +2,6% after Mediobanca Securities raised the rating from underperform to neutral and the target price from 18,1 to 19 euro.
FIAT CURES WITHDRAWAL ANXIETY, PRYSMIAN FLY
The withdrawal syndrome is less scary for Fiat +3,10% to 6,98 euros which has recovered part of the ground lost in recent weeks (about 15%) due to fears about the outcome of the merger with Chrysler. At the request of Consob, Lingotto took stock of the matter yesterday: the data on the shareholders who have exercised the right of withdrawal (option to be exercised by 20 August) will be communicated in the first week of September. The company specified that it does not expect any impact on relations with Chrysler in the event that the merger is not completed. Among the industrial stocks, Prysmian +3,8%, Finmeccanica +1,1% and StM +2,1% also performed well. Saipem also stands out +2,97%. Eni +1%. Enel rose by 2,1%.
ATLANTIA, ALLIANCE TESTS WITH ABU DHABI IN FIUMICINO
The Alitalia effect is felt. Among the utilities, Atlantia shines, +3,5% after CEO Giovanni Castellucci said he was in negotiations with the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund to sell a stake in Aeroporti di Roma. Autogrill +1,8% and WorldDutyFree +2,2% also rose. Day of increases also for cement manufacturers: Buzzi +3,2%, Italcementi +3,6%, Cementir +4,8%.
SAWIRIS REDUCES SHORTS ON TELECOM ITALIA
Less brilliant on the day of Telecom Italia rebounds +0,48%. The market fears capital operations necessary to finance the acquisition of the Brazilian GVt by Vivendi in response to the offer of Telefonica. Meanwhile, it has been learned that Naguib Sawiris has further reduced the bearish position started in the autumn of last year on TI stocks. According to updates to the Consob bulletin, Orascom, the Egyptian entrepreneur's operating arm, has reduced its bearish bet on Telecom to 0,8%, from the previous 0,9%.
TOD'S IN THE RECOVERY. DRUMS HIGHLIGHT
Favored by the ban on short selling, Tod's recovered +2%. Ferragamo also did well +2,1%. Yoox rebounds + 4,3% after losing 18% in nine sessions. In the rest of the price list, the jump, after the quarterly data, of Trevi +3,4% and MaireTecnimont +2,3% should be mentioned. La Doria gains 4,4%. Tamburi +4,9% after changes in the shareholding (purchases of D'Amico and Ifm).
