But how much traffic in the skies of Italian capitalism. Fiat, once the obstacle of withdrawal has been overcome, can embark for Wall Street with the blessing of Piazza Affari which greets with a frank rise the forthcoming exodus to the United States of one of the historic stocks of the Italian market. Self harm? Absolutely not. As demonstrated by the precedent of CNH, listed both in the USA and in Milan, the double listing does not mean the automatic marginalization of the Italian list.
Meanwhile, on the arrivals front, Telecom Italia drivers are already awaiting the arrival of the flights from Paris. The feeling is that, after the rapid verdict issued by the Vivendi board in favor of Telefonica, it won't be long to see the team of managers of the French group appear on the move to the former telecom monopolist in our house. The Italian Stock Exchange, also in this case, approves (with some reservations).
Thus begins the autumn of Italian finance, with awaited (and, after all, taken for granted) news and a sudden novelty, imposed by the acceleration of Cesar Alierta's strategies. Two different stories, in which there is no common denominator, except for the observation that by now, in the context of a global economy that requires an ever higher concentration of financial, strategic and managerial firepower, it is increasingly difficult for an Italian group to standalone solution. It is a truth that applies to the few large public and private companies that have withstood the great crisis that has gripped the Italian industrial fabric for a quarter of a century now. It is a fact that must be taken into account if one wishes to defend the "fourth capitalism" made up of medium-sized enterprises: either one will favor their growth, through mergers or other incentives for aggregations, or the various champions of mechanics, fashion or food rather than chemical and pharma will be destined to end up in the orbit of international groups. The summer of 2014 will be remembered in this regard for the return of interest of Scandinavian groups for our home pharmaceuticals, see Rottapharm, rather than for the growth of interest of Indians, Chinese and Russians for our medium-sized companies.
But let's go back to the news of the day. Fiat has overcome "the recent extravagance of the stock markets" to quote Sergio Marchionne. In other words, that "performance of Fiat shares in recent days which has added an unexpected and, in my view, unjustified degree of complexity to this process". In reality, like the CEO of FCA (it was hard to give up the old Fiat!), the objections of some institutional shareholders, such as Norges Bank, were largely linked to the adoption in the new statute of clauses to the advantage of the current majority which multiplies its voting capacity by two (at the expense of contestability). A clause foreseen in other illustrious statutes, such as Ford, but which in those cases dates back to past eras, in which the sensitivity for governance was quite different. The obstacle, however, has been overcome: Fiat-Chrysler is marching towards Wall Street where it expects to land as early as mid-October (or shortly thereafter, given the complexity of the prospectus), with the aim of obtaining higher quotations, given the different assessment of GM and Ford with respect to the parameters in use in Europe. It will not go like this, prophesies Crédit Suisse which attributes a value of no more than 6 euros to the stock, motivating the rejection with the high level of debts, the scarce visibility of new investments, the risks associated with the execution of the ambitious plans for Alfa and the Jeep.
Marchionne has not reacted so far. Nor will he probably do it tomorrow, on the final day of the Rimini Meeting, of which he will be the undisputed protagonist. If anything, the appointment in Romagna will serve to reaffirm, perhaps with new announcements, the Italian character of the new global Fiat. Then, from Monday, the American challenge will pick up speed. It is easy to envisage the launch of some financial transactions (disposal of treasury shares, sale of a stake in Cnh) perhaps even before the listing which will be followed, if market conditions allow, by a convertible which will provide the group with the financial ammunition to accelerate investments on the Alfa and Jeep front without proceeding with the capital increase that analysts suggest but Marchionne does not intend to hear about. Meanwhile, in view of its arrival on Wall Street, Fiat has launched a new spot dedicated to ecology on the US market. It's a cartoon in which the animals of the forest praise the eco-friendly 500. In the end, the raccoon, pointing to a 500, assures: "that car has many friends among the Bears". Perhaps, on the eve of the arrival on the Stock Exchange, it was better to appeal to a Bull (albeit not a grenade, for heaven's sake).
The plot of Telecom Italia's umpteenth adventure promises to be far more uncertain. The company led by Marco Patuano comes out of the challenge on Gvt with the pride and awareness of having played a courageous and sensible game, but which in the end only translated into an advantage for Vivendi who obtained an excellent price for the Brazilian company (which he had tried in vain to sell a year ago) and, what's more, today he has the opportunity to replace Telefonica as the main shareholder of Telecom Italia. With what goals? Vivendi's interest, from which comes the message that the return to telecommunications "is not strategic", is to find an outlet channel for its media and entertainment content. The presence in Telecom Italia guarantees a convincing approach to the Italian market, perhaps to be completed with an ad hoc agreement with Mediaset Premium, in which Telefonica is one of the shareholders.
Vincet Bolloré is unlikely to go further. Of course, Vivendi could merge its stake into a syndicate with its ally Mediobanca and Generali plus Intesa. That is, the Italian partners of Telco, one year after the agreement to sell their shares to Telefonica, should retrace their steps. Or the exit of Telefonica, blocked by its conflicts of interest, could re-launch Telecom's appeal towards possible buyers (Sawiris?) or Italian allies (Cdp itself).
Much will depend on the choices on Brazil. From Telecom it is known that the plans for Tim Brasil do not change: Oi's offer is rejected in no uncertain terms, then it is known that Tim could be the one to buy the fourth carioca manager. However, it is unlikely that Vivendi, if it becomes a shareholder, or Telefonica will allow Telecom to embark on such a feat. Surely the Stock Exchange, which registered with relief Vivendi's no which prevented Ti from getting into debt for another couple of billions, is ready to follow the management in an acquisition campaign. Equally difficult for the group, given the financial situation, to be able to proceed with a convincing investment plan in Italy and in Brazil in terms of broadband and ultra-broadband. This is why many are betting that, sooner or later, Telecom Italia will leave Brazil (provided at a price that at least reflects Gvt's valuations) to concentrate resources in a major plan in Italy. Without relying only on masters arriving from outside. But this recalls the responsibility of the country: the political class but, before that, the former good living rooms which have not guaranteed, unlike what happened in Spain, the financial and strategic background that a great player needs at the time of connectivity anytime, anywhere.
