The central banks are trying to take back the reins of the markets after the whirlwind start of 2016. And so, once the losses of the beginning of 2016 have been recovered, the first calls not to rip come. Last night, Dennis Lockhart and John Williams, presidents of the Atlanta and San Francisco Feds respectively, curbed the expectations of global speculation: a rate hike in April cannot be ruled out, they said.
The signal was sufficient to slow down the run of Asian stock markets, thanks to the rebound of the dollar (1,1237 against the euro). Thus, after a positive streak of seven sessions, the Chinese Stock Exchanges are slowing down: Shanghai (-0,4%) has in any case recovered the levels of January, before the big drop. Different scenario in Tokyo (+2,1%), closed on Monday, which immediately benefited from the drop in the yen and the negative data on industrial production. Operators are convinced that the Central Bank will only be able to launch new monetary stimuli.
Even Wall Street, tired by five consecutive weeks of increases, limited itself to consolidating the positions reached: Dow Jones and S&P 500 +0,1%, Nasdaq +0,3%.
THE NEW IPHONE DOESN'T HEAT UP THE US STOCK
Apple flat (-0,01% to 105,91 dollars) after the parade of novelties. Apple has presented an iPhone that is smaller in size and at a lower price than the latest models, but with similar performance. The price of the iWatch drops by 100 dollars (to 299). But analysts doubt the moves will be able to counter the trend decline in sales in 2016.
Note the mega-agreement in the field of financial data. The IHS group (+6,1%), specialized in the supply of economic and financial information, achieved an increase of 6,1% after the news of the merger with Markit, in turn +8,4%. the issuer of the credit default swaps. The transaction, card against card, leads to the creation of a group worth 13 billion dollars.
MOODY'S ALERT ABOUT BREXIT. pound down
A weak session for European stock exchanges: London fell by 0,1%, Paris lost 0,7%. The Frankfurt Stock Exchange closed in parity, with chemical stocks the protagonists of the session. Basf rose by 0,6%, Bayer +3,2%: the two groups are the object of the advances of the American Monsanto, which according to rumors has advanced proposals to buy assets of both.
The most critical note concerns the pound. Moody's has raised the alarm on the consequences of Brexit which, in the meantime, is gaining consensus thanks also to fears of a split in the governing Conservative Party in view of the June referendum. Pay attention today to the macro data: at 10 the March Ifo index and the March PMI (composite, manufacturing and services) of the Eurozone will be published, while at 11 it will be the turn of the German Zew. In the afternoon (14:45) there will then be the US manufacturing PMI index for March.
MILAN+0,4%. THE TREASURY OFFERS 4,5 BILLION CTZ AND BTPEI
Partly different script for Piazza Affari (+0,4%), supported by the recovery of bank stocks and the changing of the guard in Telecom. Colorless day for government bonds. The Btp/Bund spread remains at 106 bp, the 1,259-year yield is 24%. The Treasury announced yesterday evening that on the 2,5th it will offer: from 3 to 28 billion of the new Ctz 3/2018/500; from 1,5 million to 15 billion in total for the eighteenth tranche of the Btpei 9/2041/15 and the thirtieth tranche of the Btpei 9/2026/XNUMX.
Between 4 and 7 April next, the new Btp Italia will be available to investors, a security indexed to the trend of national inflation. The issue has a duration of eight years and a maturity in April 2024.
BANKS, BPM AND BANCO POPOLARE BODIES ONLY TOMORROW
Piazza Affari is betting that the marriage between the Popolari will take place. Banco Popolare, the best blue chip of the day, recovered 6%, to 7,25 euros, after closing last week with a fall of 14%. Meanwhile Banca Popolare Milano gained 3,4%.
The games for the merger between the two institutes have reopened, thanks also to the pressing of the government. Thus the chances have risen that today the Boards will announce a memorandum of understanding or at least the continuation of the negotiations on the basis of the conditions requested by the ECB. In this regard, the CEO of Banco, Pier Francesco Saviotti, said on Saturday during the meeting: "We start from the assumption that the capital we have is robust but since the ECB insists on the possibility of further improvements, we have considered that there may be initiatives under the aspect of strengthening the assets. Which doesn't necessarily mean a capital increase, but I'm not able to say whether to rule it out 100%". The councils of the two Popolari will be held tomorrow and not today as planned.
The entire credit sector is making a strong recovery. The Italian basket of the sector advances by 1,5% against a weak European sector (-0,5%). Intesa rose by 1%, Unicredit +1,3%, MontePaschi +3,9%, Pop. Emilia-Romagna +0,8%. Weak Generali (-1,17%): Equita Sim reduced the target price to 16,2 from 19 euro, confirming the hold recommendation. Sensational relay in Axa: Henry de Castries leaves after 27 years and will go to manage the English HSBC. Thoms Buberl takes his place, already number one in the German businesses.
CATTANEO TO TELECOM. TODAY THE MEDIASET ACCOUNTS
At the center of attention is also the game of convergence between telecommunications and TV. Telecom Italia leapt forward, +3,1% to 1,0410 after hitting a high at 1,0520. This was the market reaction to the changing of the guard in the former telecommunications incumbent. Yesterday morning the company confirmed the resignation of CEO Marco Patuano who, barring surprises, should be replaced by Flavio Cattaneo, Italo's current CEO. The resigned CEO was summoned to Consob tomorrow.
In the first part of the session, purchases were also concentrated on Mediaset. The share thus rose abruptly to 3,8780 euros (+2%), only to lose momentum after Silvio Berlusconi, in a radio intervention, reduced the scope of the possible agreements of the Biscione with Vivendi, the reference shareholder of Telecom . At the end of the day the subsidiary Fininvest lost almost 1% closing at 3,74 euros. According to Repubblica, on the contrary, an all-round agreement is possible, with a share swap with the Bolloré group. Meanwhile, the market awaits the accounts of the TV company, today being examined by the board of directors: it will be the first opportunity to get a final balance on Premium's performance.
However, times are running out. "If Vivendi wants to offer itself as an alternative to Netflix - writes The Economist - it must move quickly, given the rapid expansion of the US group". In the meantime, Inwit (-2,63%), the Telecom tower company disputed between Ei Towers (+0,40%) and the F21-Cellnex partnership, is slowing down. Raiway was also down (-0,7%).
LEAP BY EXOR, FCA BRAKES
In great evidence Exor, up 3,8% to a price it hasn't seen since mid-January at 31,91 euros (the stock has lost 23% since the beginning of the year). This morning Kepler-Cheuvreux strengthened the Buy rating, raising the target price to 34 euros from the previous 28 euros.
Instead, Fiat Chrysler took profits (-0,42%). Last Friday, with the stock exchange closed, S&P announced that it had upgraded the group's rating to BB from BB-, after the group completed the operation which gives it full access to FCA USA (Chrysler) liquidity equal to 10,4, XNUMX billion euros.
ANALYSTS SUPPORT ENI, THUD OF SAIPEM
Among the oil companies, Eni closed unchanged, Rbc Capital raised the recommendation to Outperform from Sector Perform, target price to 16 euros. Overall, Eni expects to carry out new disposals for 7 billion euros, most of it in the next two years. Tenaris -0,4%. Saipem -3,4%: Canaccord Genuity cut the target price to 0,45 euro from 0,65 euro, confirming the Hold judgment.
