Exchanges in substitute awaiting the decisions of the Fed and the announcement on US GDP data in the first quarter (expected +1%) which will precede Janet Yellen's press conference. Meanwhile, the New York Times reveals that the central bank had already decided to increase rates between June and October, but the slowdown in the economy convinced the Fed to postpone the operation.
While awaiting the announcements from Washington, the run of Asian stock markets slows down (the Asia Pacific index -0,6%). Chinese stock exchanges also take a break: Shanghai -0,8%, Hong Kong -0,5%. However, the climate remains positive: the news has spread that the People Bank of China, to stimulate the recovery of the economy, is preparing to launch an ECB-style Qe, which provides for the purchase of bonds and other corporate assets. Tokyo closed for holidays, awaiting Thursday's central bank meeting: the Boj should confirm the policy of robust aid to the economy.
TWITTER SHOULDER STRAP (-24%). ONLY 25% BELIEVE IN RISE RISES
Wall Street absorbed the surprisingly negative data on consumer confidence without obvious trauma: Dow Jones +0,4%, S&P +0,28%. Only the Nasdaq fell 0,1%. The technological list is weighed down by the beating of Twitter (-24%) after the quarterly accounts which confirmed the slowdown in the growth rate of the social network's users.
Despite the excellent results, Apple reported a 1,6% loss at the end. Instead, the Dow was supported by IBM +1,9%, which announced a sharp increase (+18%) in the quarterly dividend. Only one in four analysts now expects a rate hike before the end of the year.
EUROS TO THE RESCUE, EU EXCHANGES DOWN
Yesterday was a day of declines for the price lists of the Old Continent. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed the session with a drop of 1,15% to 23.532 points. The losses in Frankfurt (-1,89%) and Paris (-1,81%) were heavier. London falls by 1,03%. More stable Madrid (-0,28%). In addition to the influence of the Greek crisis, the decline is due to the recovery of the euro, which has risen to 1,10 against the dollar.
ZERO RATE FOR BOTS, TODAY IT IS REPLICATED WITH BTPs
The most significant news of the day comes from the debt market: the Italian Treasury has placed 6,5 billion 6-month interest-free BOTs. During the auction, a low was reached at -0,11%. In November 2011, for the same term, the ministry had had to pay an interest rate of 6,504%. In December 2014, in the last auction before the official announcement of the Qe (which took place on 22 January), 6-month BOTs were still placed at a yield close to 0,3%.
The auction for medium-long term securities is being held today in this framework: 4 billion of the new 5-year BTP, 1,5 to 2 billion of the 10 BTP and 1,75-2,25 billion Ccteu. Rates are expected to move little or slightly rise: yesterday on the gray market the 5-year BTp traded around 0,62%: a level higher than a handful of basis points compared to the March auction (0,55%) .
The 1,34-year BTP, on the other hand, remained fixed at around XNUMX%: today's level on the secondary market is the same as the auction at the end of last month. Few surprises should come from demand, expected as always in recent months, at sustained levels.
TSIPRAS ASKS FOR A REFERENDUM. EUROPE: NO TIME
Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor the situation in Athens. "Without further aid, Greece will not make it, this is the reality," Eurogroup president Jeroem Dijsselbloem said in a television interview. The Dutch politician judged favorably the reshuffle of the team that will negotiate with the creditors (after the commissioning of Minister Varoufakis) but warned against the risk of the referendum that Alexis Tsipras could call for ask for popular approval to a change of course with respect to the electoral programme: there is no time, warns the EU head of delegation. And there is no money.
However, the market is betting on a positive outcome. Yesterday there was the fifth consecutive increase for Piraeus Bank (+3%). In five sessions, the stock has doubled its quotation, while the Athens Stock Exchange moves slightly above parity.
ADVANCE ONLY THE MANAGED, BAD INSURANCE
Yesterday was a day of sharp declines yesterday in Piazza Affari for all sectors. The exception was managed savings on the back of good fund results (51,8 billion since the beginning of the year). In March, net inflows reached 22,7 billion euro, with a further improvement on the 20 billion recorded in February, which in turn doubled the January balance (+9,1 billion).
Mediolanum (+2,5%), Azimut (+0,7%) and Anima (+3,9%) advance. On the other hand, the insurance sector is still under pressure (European Stoxx -2,2%): the French Axa marks a decline of 3,6%. Generali falls by 1,8%, UnipolSai -1,6%. Banks are also down. Intesa loses 2,1% to 3,09 euros: the analysts of Deutsche Bank have cut the judgment on the stock to Hold da Buy. MontePaschi -1%, Unicredit -0,7%. The reductions of Ubi (-3,2%) and Popolare dell'Emilia (-2,6%) were heavier.
WAITING FOR ENI, FOR SARAS -4,5% THE RUSSIAN PAPER WITHDRAWS
Spotlight on Eni's quarterly accounts today. Yesterday unchanged. The conference call with the analysts will be held in the afternoon. Yesterday the sector recorded the good results of Total (+1%), which announced better than expected results thanks to the recovery of profitability in refining.
Money meanwhile on Saipem (+0,25%) rewarded by an upgrade (to hold from sell with target price rising to 12,9 euros from 8 euros) by Société Générale. Banca Akros, Ubs, Exane Bnp Paribas, Kepler Cheuvreux and Equita Sim also raised their target prices after higher-than-expected accounts
On the contrary, a black day for Saras (-4,55%). Starting off sharply (high at 1,91 euro), the share reversed the trend by marking a low at 1,6710 euro. This is the effect of the communications at the meeting: general manager Dario Scaffardi reported that the company has decided, in agreement with Rosneft, to shelve the trading joint venture project.
Meanwhile, CEO Massimo Moratti explained that “at the moment there is a balance with Rosneft that works. The structure is stable. I don't know that they want to increase the quota". Currently the Russians are at 21%. The two brothers Marco and Massimo Moratti have a total of 50,1%. Despite yesterday's drop, the stock has maintained a 115% gain since the beginning of 2015.
FCA BRAKING. GOOD PRYSMIAN
The most consistent losses affected the industrial sector. Setback for Fiat Chrysler (yesterday -3%), awaiting the quarterly accounts. Cnh Industrial also down (-2,6%). Difficult day for Finmeccanica (-2,3%) and StM (-3,7%). Buzzi went against the trend, up 1%: Morgan Stanley increased the target price from 14,5 to 16,5 euros.
Prysmian +1,2%: Equita Sim increased the weight of the share in its main portfolio by 50 basis points. The stock also benefits from the good results of its French competitor Nexans, which gains 12% on the Paris Stock Exchange.
MEDIASET STILL ON. REAL ESTATE FLYING
Mediaset is still positive, which after +8,23% on Monday scored +0,56% under the pressure of a possible deal with Vivendi. Today there will be the meeting of the Fininvest home company. The editorials did well: Rcs +2,81%, L'Espresso +1,67%. Cairo Communications +0,86%.
Worth noting is the leap of Salini Impregilo (+2,8%). Equita Sim promotes the agreement announced yesterday for a water project in Papua New Guinea. Lastly, there was a boom in securities in the real estate sector: Aedes +28,6%, Gabetti +10,7%, Prelios +10%, Risanamento +5,2%.
