No news, good news. The publication of the minutes of the Fed meeting of 3/4 May did not bring any significant news: all agreed on two increases of half a point in the next meetings, but also, if necessary, to adopt a tougher line: in the urgency to fight inflation, the Fed may also decide to adopt a policy openly described as “restrictive” in the future, ie going beyond the threshold of neutral rates. A severe message, but nothing new compared to the declarations of the last few days. And Wall Street, now accustomed to bad news, reacted to the upside. But make no illusions: Ed Yardeni, an economist who is also closely followed by the members of the Federal Reserve, wrote that the Bull will not show up on Wall Street for a long time: “We still expect to see a new record in the S&P 500, but not before the end of next year."
Meanwhile, the possibility of a recession is increasing, from 30 to 40%. Sequoia Capital's analysis is even more negative: “Companies – reads a message to customers – must equip themselves to pass the test of the recession. In particular, prepare to cut investments in marketing, advertising and even in research ".
Asia stops, Korea raises rates
The Asian price lists were little moved this morning. Tokyo's Nikkei, Seoul's Kospi and Hong Kong's Hang Seng are around parity. The Korean central bank has raised rates. The democracies of the area are watching the increase in tension between the US and China with concern.
Li Kequiang leaves the alarm on growth: worse than in 2020
Chinese price lists go up by half a point. In Shanghai, the authorities have decided to reopen schools from June 2020th. But it doesn't seem to improve the contagion situation in Beijing. Yesterday the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, said that in some respects the economic picture is worse than that of XNUMX. A pessimistic reading of the situation that contrasts with the reassuring picture provided by President Xi.
Nasdaq and S&P up. But the 2022 budget is bad
Yesterday the Nasdaq celebrated its 100th session of 2022 with an increase of 1,5%. But there is very little to celebrate: the first hundred days of the year have been horrible for the tech index: the drop was 27%, such a negative start has never been seen in history. In the first hundred days, the S&P500 (+0,9%) also marks a drop of 17%: the worst first hundred days since 1970.
Musk reviews the offer: Twitter and Tesla rise
Twitter rose 5% after the stock market. Elon Musk revised his offer, abandoning the plan for a margin loan tied to Tesla stock (+4,9%), while increasing his equity stake to $33,5 billion from $27,5 billion previously.
The yield on the 2,76-year Treasury Note, on the lows of the last month, has moved little: this morning it is at XNUMX%, more or less on the levels of the day before.
Oil over $110. There is no EU agreement on the embargo
WTI oil appreciates at 110,9 dollars a barrel, +0,5%. The countries of the European Union are unable to find a basic agreement on the embargo on Russian oil: at next week's extraordinary European summit, the subject of sanctions against Moscow may not even be on the agenda. Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni, from Davos, admits that there is little chance of reaching an agreement.
Gas from Europe at 87,5 euros per megawatt/hour. The RePowerEu plan put forward by the EU Commission does not seem to have met with general consensus.
ECB: Holland wants a 50-point hike in July. The doves brake
The European Central Bank should start raising key rates in the third quarter, but the path beyond September is made uncertain by the war in Ukraine and its impact on inflation. The chief economist of the ECB Philip Lane thus curbs the demands of the hawks of the ECB. “What happens after September depends on the context,” Lane said, adding that “you need flexibility and gradualness”. But the governor of the Dutch central bank, Claas Knot, said he "doesn't rule out a 50 basis point increase in rates as early as July", thus responding to the Frenchman Villeroy de Galhau who had denied an agreement on the matter the day before.
Christine Lagarde does not return to the question, after the declarations of recent days on the end of negative rates by September. It's up to Daniele Franco to underline the central bank's difficulties: “I believe – says the economy minister – that the ECB will have to reconcile the need to bring inflation under control with the need to avoid another recession in Europe. It is a difficult balance”, added the owner of the Treasury. “We all know rates will go up, the point is how fast they go up.”
A new Btp Italia is at the start, the new 15 years is good
Bonds moving little in Europe awaiting the minutes of the Federal Reserve. Italian paper reached a minimum yield of 2,91% (against 2,97%). The bund trades at 0,95%. The spread fell to 197 from 200.
The Treasury has announced that it will offer from June 20 to 23 the new BTP Italy maturing between 6 and 10 years. The minimum guaranteed rates will be communicated on Friday 17 June. Among the most relevant innovations there is a double bonus, explains the Treasury: "For the first time, a double loyalty bonus will be provided for retail savers who buy on issue days: one that will be paid during the life of the bond and one at the final deadline for those who have held it continuously".
The issue of the new 15-year BTP, with a maturity of 2038 March 3,25 and an annual coupon of 200%, saw the participation of over 25 investors for a total demand of approximately XNUMX billion.
Piazza Affari (+1,57%) leader in Europe
Piazza Affari grabs a rise of 1,57%, the best performance in Europe, and reaches 24.250 basis points, thanks to the good intonation of oil stocks and banks.
Madrid (+1,42%), Paris (+0,0,73%), Frankfurt (+0,63%), Amsterdam (+0,62%) and London (+0,54%) are more cautious.
Leading title in Milan was Eni (+3,8%): yesterday the company signed a memorandum of understanding with CNH (+1,74%) and Iveco (+2,62%) to carry out initiatives in the context of sustainability.
The agreement with Samsung gives Stellantis the charge
Stellantis also rose (+1,86%), which announced on Tuesday evening that it had signed agreements with Samsung for the construction of a battery production plant for electric vehicles in Kokomo (Indiana), in the United States, capable of to equip 400 cars.
Tenaris did well among the oil companies, while Saipem slipped again (-3,1%), the black jersey of the day.
Above all, Unipol (+3,31%) and bank stocks thought of supporting the bull, fueled by prospects of rate increases and sector consolidation hypotheses: Bper grows by 3%, Unicredit +2,7% after the revision at Jefferies raises its target price. Intesa Sanpaolo also made marked progress (+2,6%).
Mfe wakes up in the endgame, high-volatility Tim
Spectacular turnaround by MediaforEurope. The former Mediaset, close to its lows in the morning after the publication of the results, closes with an increase of 7,1%.
Telecom Italia was also very volatile, closing at +0,8%: the group was awarded 1,6 billion euros from the government, as part of the "Italia a 1 Giga" tender to bring fast Internet to around 7 million addresses civics distributed throughout the Italian territory.
Great show by Casta Diva: +43% in two sessions
The world of entertainment awakens: Casta Diva scores a 17% increase in the Egm after Tuesday's formidable +26%: the board of directors of the company, active internationally in the communication sector, has approved the 2022 business plan- 2024, with a production value target of 2024 million euro for 70,1.
