“Draghi's intervention was fundamental, of course it will take weeks to translate yesterday's decisions into practice and we need to understand well what the conditionality part will look like for the ECB's intervention, which is yet to be defined, but we have taken the direction right". In Cernobbio, where the usual Ambrosetti workshop at Villa d'Este, the economist Angelo Tantazzi, president of Prometeia and former president of the Italian Stock Exchange, applauds the intervention of the governor of the central bank: “Draghi hasn't solved all the problems and he himself has reiterated once again that he can't do it alone”. The ball thus passes to the European Union and the individual states. "Now a very important step - recalls Tantazzi - will be the proposal for banking supervision next week: the unification of banking supervision is a sine qua non for the resolution of the crisis".
FIRST online – What should Italy do to accompany the exit from the crisis?
Tantazzi – We have to convince that our spread will go down. We need to continue to cut back on waste, the news we are reading these days on the costs of regional councilors and the political/administrative apparatus go in the opposite direction. In this situation where sacrifices are asked of the people of shrines, there shouldn't be any. Expenditure control is a road that still has to be traveled completely because it cannot be done in a boorish way, cutting 20%, but you need to get inside things and this requires skill and time. It is important to have started this process but the ability to improve is vast. And we need to give the perception that we continue on this path.
FIRST online – The big knot of growth remains, how to deal with it?
Tantazzi – As long as the problem is the balance of public accounts from a fiscal point of view, nothing comes out. It must be remembered that in September there was no increase in VAT by two points, the most important aid that there has been to development today. Overall, the measures taken are positive because they give greater flexibility (think of the 1 euro Srls) but they are not short-term, they will give results later. If it is possible to reduce the spread it can be a help and, as mentioned, it is essential to convince that it will go down. But the only element that can act in the short term is the reduction of spreads and therefore of interest rates. The rest, starting with the infrastructures we always talk about, takes time. But let's not delude ourselves, in the coming months there is no improvement.
FIRST online Are we still in free fall?
Tantazzi – In the current quarter it is still ongoing, but it should stop in the coming months, we are stabilising. But one must distinguish between stabilization, improvement and deterioration. So far things have worsened above all due to the loss of purchasing power of households on which the tax maneuver has been largely unloaded. Now the risk is that the companies that have supported us, those that export and that fortunately have benefited from the weakening of the euro in recent times, will begin to suffer more, causing the country to resume its downward path.
FIRST online – What's going on?
Tantazzi – In the last month it has emerged that the negative indicators have strengthened for other geographical areas, the USA and China and other emerging countries. The weakening of Europe is weakening the American and Chinese economies. We already had a more complex situation than others but today the situation is aggravated by a synchronization of the weakening of the various world areas. Furthermore, the fiscal problem of the United States has remained covered by the European crisis but it is a time bomb about to explode. All of this fits into the picture of the current lack of political leadership in the US where there is excitement about the elections. All this means that we will carry this weakening forward for at least six months.
