“And what are you waiting for? It is a crime to keep so much liquidity at a standstill in such a situation”. Gianni Tamburi, the soul and main shareholder of Tip, thus "scolds" one of his shareholders, a medium-sized industrialist, who confided in him that he had accumulated more than 30 million cash in recent (very positive) months. A counter-current advice, given the great talk of deflation and flight from investments. But Tamburi, an optimist in a world where misfortunes can be foreseen in large quantities, loves to follow his path without giving in to the "sentiments" of fashion. With good arguments, both drawn from the experience of banker of the made in Italy, both from the activity of study. “Valore Italia, the sequel to Asset Italia, will be released in October – he confesses. I've reached 348 pages so far." A nice swag. “ I hope not boring. But it is the fruit of a research activity that has taken me months to clarify my ideas on where capitalism is going”. The result? “Call for Cassandras. The world goes on, in spite of fear”.
It's a minority thesis, if you read the newspapers. Deflation is blowing, the European Union is falling apart, the Monetary Fund is sounding the alarm.
“But the markets continue to grow. As well as the global economy which in 2016 will register an increase of about 3 percent. Just as I thought a few months ago when the most negative voices multiplied. Do you remember the alarms about China? Six months ago, reading the analyzes of the so-called experts, it seemed doomed to catastrophe. Today no one says it anymore”.
But global growth slows down.
“Indonesia is growing by 12 percent, India is booming. If we look at Europe, Poland rises, as does Spain. To get a useful picture, we need to look at the world as a whole, without being influenced by emotions. I got an idea after months of reading” .
What is the thesis?
After the crises of the beginning of the millennium, the world has developed a general feeling of risk aversion which is dominating the markets and economic initiative. Antibodies have set in motion that are triggered at the first hint of danger. Or even before. Let's think about Brexit. It has been portrayed as a sort of universal judgment. On the markets it lasted the space of a day. In Great Britain, consumption has shot up by 12 percent thanks to the boom in tourists attracted by the weak pound”.
What if Trump wins the US election? The risk is the explosion of protectionism.
“I don't want to talk about protectionism, because I know very little about it. But I have a feeling that the Trump effect, if any, will last a couple of months at most. Then it will impose again the logic of the economy which is strong and can count on a But the scenario of the end of 2015 will repeat itself. The Fed will raise rates slightly, however very low, promising the markets that it will not go any further”.
In short, nothing will happen.
“Essentially it is. The reality is that it has become aware that the world cannot afford the luxury of an epochal crisis. And so, thanks to an enormous injection of money, a risk-proof policy was created”.
What will be the consequence for investors?
“The triumph of equity. Faced with 12-13 trillion of negative interest bonds, it makes no sense to stay away from shares. Between a blue chip that gives me an average of 2,4% and a bond that, when it goes well, gives me 0,5%, I have no doubts”.
But how long will this picture last?
“Sooner or later inflation will show itself. But for now, that's a distant possibility. For the rest, after having examined buybacks, quantitative easing, rate dynamics, the situation seems to me quite clear".
Let's move on to Italy, the country that is not growing.
“But let's not exaggerate the scope of stats that last the space of a day or so. There is a systemic problem, that of the banks as well as a vast area of the gray economy, which among other things has benefited from easy credits. But there are many attractive realities, in the new or in the old economy, including start-ups in which we invest so as not to be caught off guard in the future".
How many investments do you have in progress?
"More or less twenty".
Including Guzzini.
“It's a school case. We entered a minority position helping to strengthen the corporate leadership by settling some quarrels among the shareholders. Today the company is ready to grow also thanks to acquisitions and then land on the stock exchange”.
This too is Italy value. What will be on the cover of the book?
“Ferrari in Piazza Affari on the day of the quotation. It is the symbol of what we can do if we shake off the dust of fear”.
Like Marchionne?
“It is certainly no coincidence that the Germans are now attacking Fiat Chrysler, perhaps even with low blows. The reality is that in this case they are the ones who are scared. Marchionne has defeated them in the low and medium ranges of the market, as shown by the sales figures. But now Giulia arrives. And for BMW and Audi it will be problems. Let's leave them a little fear”.
