Between hurricanes, bombs and drones, the financial week opens with surprising tranquility. The words of Jerome Powell, cautious and a little hermetic as usual, seem to have satisfied both the hawks, satisfied by the confirmation of the tapering within the year, and the doves, reassured by the soft tones of the intervention. In this climate, the tension on crude oil prices was absorbed this morning after Louisiana interrupted the activity of its refineries (1,74 billion barrels): WTI crude oil remains below the 70 dollar barrier. The same goes for the dramatic news from Kabul airport (5 missiles intercepted during the night by US batteries being moved) in view of tomorrow's ultimatum, the final date for the US to leave and, perhaps, for a less passive of the Europeans. In anticipation of the events, the data arriving from the capitals of the economy weigh more than Afghanistan. Special observation on China: from the PMI indices released tomorrow and Wednesday, we will try to understand the state of the economy in Beijing, already a victim of bottlenecks and infections.
USA, TODAY A NEW STOP FOR EUROPEAN TOURISTS
Meanwhile, in Asia Pacific the reassuring effect of Jerome Powell's intervention prevails almost everywhere over health concerns, which are always high in any case. Australia's most populous state, New South Wales, set a new record for infections in the past 24 hours, the second highest in two days. The Japanese authorities have already anticipated the extension of the state of emergency in the prefecture of Tokyo and in the others where it is in force until September 12th. The Wall Street Journal reports that today the European Union should announce a new stop to tourists arriving from the United States.
ASIA PACIFIC RISES (+0,8%). HISTORICAL RECORD IN INDIA
However, the Asia Pacific index rose (+0,8%). Despite the world record of infections, the Mumbai Stock Exchange reaches another maximum in history: BSE Sensex +0,8% pending the GDP data (Wednesday).
Tokyo's Nikkei (+0,5%) and Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+0,3%) also rose. Today the borders are reopening for domestic workers and carers, more than 200 immigrants who will be able to return to work in the city.
CHINA ABOLICISHES VERY LONG SCHEDULE (FROM 9 AM TO 21 PM)
The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists are down slightly (-0,2%). There is expectation for the PMI indices, which should remain, albeit slightly, above 50, the boundary between expansion and stagnation.
Historic decision in Beijing. The Chinese Supreme Court has condemned the practice of working from 9 to 21 six days a week, known as "996" and very common among technology companies and other enterprises in the country.
US FUTURES LITTLE MOVED, T BOND DOWN TO 1,31%
Wall Street futures moved little after the positive response of the markets to the Fed's announcements.
The tapering effect is felt more on other macro variables. The euro dollar is on the highs of the last two weeks at 1,18. Gold is back to its earlier month levels at $1.815.
Bonds were weak: the 1,31-year Treasury Note dropped to XNUMX%, as money markets expected a more hawkish Powell.
WTI oil settling at 68,6 dollars a barrel, from +10,5% last week. It will be seen whether the US infrastructure will withstand the impact, unlike the disasters caused ten years ago by Hurricane Katrina.
COMMODITIES: ALUMINUM FLYWHEEL AND COFFEE
Among the raw materials, aluminum is in strong tension, up 3%, on the highs of the last thirteen years. Local authorities in Xingjiang have imposed a production cap on five major aluminum producers as part of the crackdown on illegal behavior.
The price of coffee also rose, awaiting the rainy season in Brazil. The closures imposed by the infections have greatly reduced harvests in Vietnam, a leader in robust quality: the risk of an export blackout is growing.
THE IMF SOUNDS THE ALARM: THE POOR CAN'T MAKE IT WITH TAPERING
Not everyone likes the prospect of tapering, albeit soft. After the first positive reaction of the markets to Governor Jerome Powell's announcement in Jackson Hole, came the warning of Gita Gopinath, chief economist of the Monetary Fund: as in 2013, many emerging countries would not be able to sustain the tapering. But the markets are confidently awaiting today's macro data, starting with the various confidence indexes in the Eurozone, which were still up in August. For Italy, after eight months of recovery, a slight decrease is estimated.
THE TIME OF THE INDEXES: MANUFACTURING PMI AND CONFIDENCE
Investors' eyes are mainly focused on manufacturing PMI data from Japan, China, Italy, Germany, France, Great Britain and the Eurozone, as well as the ADP estimate of new private sector jobs in the United States, which arrive on Wednesday XNUMX September. And again on the services and composite PMIs of China, Italy, Germany, France, Great Britain, the Eurozone, in addition to the Markit services PMI and the non-manufacturing ISM index in the States scheduled for Friday.
EU, TOMORROW DATA ON INFLATION AND THE BUDGET
The data on inflation in the area on Tuesday should be followed in particular: +2,8% according to forecasts, the highest since 2012, a number destined to rise again to 3,3%, according to HSBC. Or 2,6%, according to the ECB, which takes into account the rise in German VAT, the increase in energy and the inconvenience associated with bottlenecks in industry. But all this will not translate into an imminent increase in interest rates, also because the phenomenon is expected to subside in 2022.
As for the ECB, the consolidated balance sheet will be published on Tuesday, the statistics on bank interest rates in the Eurozone on Wednesday.
US EMPLOYMENT DATA ON FRIDAY, DECISIVE FOR TAPERING
The markets are also awaiting US data, crucial for the start of the reduction in purchases by the Fed. The most important indicator will be provided by the employment data on Friday: 750 new jobs are expected and unemployment will fall to 5,2 %.
This is followed by house prices, which are on the rise, and the confidence index. But the economic situation could be conditioned above all by hurricane Ida in Florida, which could significantly affect the energy market. Wednesday is the OPEC plus meeting, which will have to decide whether to modify or confirm the monthly increase of 400 barrels per day.
