The South came out of the recession and consolidated its recovery in 2016, outperforming the North. This is what we read in the Svimez 2017 report presented this morning to the Chamber.
In the two-year period, the manufacturing industry in the South grew by over 7%, compared to the 3% recorded in the rest of the country, thanks to territorial development policies.
The forecasts for 2017 and 2018 "confirm that the South and Islands are able to catch up with the recovery, recording growth rates slightly lower than those of the Centre-North". In the Svimez estimates, updated in October, we read that in 2017 "Italian GDP grew by 1,5%, the result of +1,6% in the Centre-North and +1,3% in the South". In 2018, the growth rate of the national GDP will settle at "1,4% with a territorial variation of 1,4% in the Centre-North and 1,2% in the South".
According to the report, the growth in 2017 and 2018 will be driven by the trend in domestic demand, "which in the South will register +1,5% and +1,4% respectively (in the Centre-North, on the other hand, this year by +1,6% and next year by +1,3%)”. Positive forecasts also for exports and total investments "which will grow more in the South than in the Centre-North: exports by +5,4% compared to +4,3%, investments by 3,1% compared to +2,7% ”.
However, according to what emerges from the report, some worried phenomena such as the brain drain remain. In fact, at the end of 2016, according to data, over 62 people left the South: Sicily has 9.300 fewer residents, Campania 9.100, Puglia 6.900. “The Mezzogiorno – reads the report – will remain a land of “selective” emigration (especially of quality), with little ability to attract immigrants from abroad, and will be affected by a progressive further decline in births”.
Also causing concern is poverty which "remains at the highest levels ever and the level of inequality within the area is depressing the recovery of consumption". The risk of poverty in the South stands at 34,1%. Furthermore, in all the southern regions it is higher than both the national figure (19,0%) and the Centre-North (11,0%). In the most populated regions, Sicily and Campania, the risk of poverty reaches almost 40%.
