Trend reversal or technical rebound? The latest is good according to Morgan Stanley, which interprets the market rebound as a reaction to the oversold that has accumulated in recent weeks. But the resistance this morning of the Asian price lists, after the fibrillation of the beginning of the week, also depends on other factors: the entry into the field of the central banks (first Mario Draghi, this morning the Japanese Haruhiko Kuroda) and the evidence of understanding between Saudi Arabia and Russia on the oil front.
This morning Tokyo, after Monday's big leap (+7,2%), consolidates its recovery (+1%), also thanks to the words of Governor Kuroda: negative rates, he said, will serve to lower the curve of the cost of money and to stimulate the recovery of consumption and investments.
Well China. The yuan exchange rate was stable, the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed a promising recovery: +3,3% in the second session after the lunar year holidays. The rally in China's markets is supported by the new lending data. The central bank announced that in January total new credit aggregates rose to 3420 trillion yuan, equal to 525 billion dollars.
Above all, however, the recovery was favored by the news anticipated by Bloomberg that this morning in Doha the Saudi oil minister Al Naimi will meet with the Russian minister Novak and with a delegation from Venezuela. An agreement on prices and production quotas seems very difficult, but the confrontation season seems to be winding down. Brent prices rose to 34.38 dollars a barrel (+3,3%), while Wti travels above 30 dollars.
POSITIVE FUTURES, THE ZEW INDEX AT 11 AM
The European markets, stimulated by Mario Draghi's messages, are thus starting to consolidate the gains of the first session of the week. Futures signal a future start in London (+26 points to 5.850), Paris (+20 to 4.135) and Frankfurt (+56 to 9.262). The highlight of the morning will be the publication of the German Zew index, set for 11.
Yesterday the Milan Stock Exchange closed the session with a 3,1% increase in the FtseMib index driven by bank stocks. Paris +3%, Frankfurt +2,6%. The BTP strengthened to 1,59%, but the same happened for the German Bund, which fell to 0,23% (-2 basis points). The spread narrows to 135 basis points. The euro weakened against the dollar to 1,114 from 1,125 on Friday night. The single currency accelerated downwards during the hearing of the president of the ECB, the central event of Wall Street's "orphan" day closed for holidays.
DRAGONS READY TO USE THE ECB'S UMBRELLA
Mario Draghi, speaking to the Economic and Monetary Affairs Commission of the European Parliament, reiterated yesterday that the ECB "is ready to do its part" in the light of inflation expectations and "the recent financial turmoil". Thus, expectations are growing for the anti-deflation measures which will be discussed at the meeting of the Central Bank on 10 March. But no less important were the words dedicated to banks, starting with non-performing loans.
Draghi has denied the rumor of purchases by the ECB of problem loans of Italian banks. "I don't know where this story comes from - he replied to a question about it - We don't know of any negotiations with the Italian government". However, he later specified that "it is a matter of seeing if suffering in the form of ABS can be accepted as collateral, but this is not a purchase". In short, an opening, at least on a theoretical level.
Speaking of banks, Draghi also added that central bank governors and supervisors have signaled a commitment not to significantly increase the capital requirements of individual institutions. A turning point compared to the orientations that have emerged so far in Basel and by the other supervisory authorities.
BANKS: REBOUND ACCELERATED, BUT DEUTSCHE BANK HOLDS DOWN
In the spotlight, as expected, the credit sector. The sector index of European banks rose by 3,6%, even if, as the hours went by, Deutsche Bank's push faded (-0,2% in recent trades after a brilliant session): the CDS on senior bond of the institution fell to 222 points from last week's negative peak (275 points) still far from the levels at the beginning of the year at 96.
In the Italian list, large trades on Unicredit, which closed the day up by 3,4%. Exane BNP Paribas raised its recommendation to Outperform from Neutral, target price to 5 euro. It was since 2012 that French analysts did not recommend the purchase of the Italian bank's stock.
Monte Paschi also galloped back (+9,2% to 0,5015). Friday had marked the new historic low at 0,42 euros. Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna +10%, Banco Popolare +7,3%. Outside the main basket, Banca Carige +4,4%. Malacalza Investimenti, the institute's main shareholder, has announced that it will present a list of candidates characterized by "strong discontinuity" for the board.
Worth noting is the rebound by Intesa (+3,5%): the loss for 2016 is reduced below 20%. Ubi Banca +1,4%: Kepler Cheuvreux has lowered the target price to 4,6 euros, from 5,7 euros. The recommendation remains Buy.
Among the insurance companies, Generali flies +4%. UnipolSai rose by 5,9% also due to the rumors about a possible shortening of the chain of control that links it to Unipol (+7,6%). Banca Akros analysts cut the target to 2,1 from 2,3 euro following the reduction of the 2017m profit estimate but raised the recommendation to accumulated.
Lastly, a shot in the arm for asset management: Anima Holding +5,7%, Azimut +5,5%. Banca Generali +4,37%: Banca Imi has raised the recommendation from hold to buy with the target price going from 30,2 to 27,7 euros.
WELL ENI, FLY SARAS. SAIPEM TRY TO REACT
Another bubbly session for energy stocks, supported by the recovery of crude oil. Eni gains 2,4% to 11,94 euros. During the day it went up to 12,12 euros, while last Thursday it had closed at 10,93 euros, on price levels it hadn't seen since the spring of 2000. Tenaris + 2,2%.
Saras rebounds by 9% to 1,5170 euros. Last week it had slipped to 1,33 euros, the lowest in the last 11 months. Thanks to the reaction, the loss since the beginning of the year is reduced to -14%.
Separate discussion for Saipem (+0,53%), which last week left 42% on the ground. Yesterday, the first day of the unexercised rights auction, 178 million shares changed hands. In the meantime, reports from Internal Dealing revealed that the US fund Dodge & Cox has reduced its stake by 11 million shares, while the US funds Marshall Wace, Jane Street and Susquehanna International have reduced their short positions.
THE CAR RAISES ITS HEAD: FIAT CHRYSLER +5,5%
Redemption of Fiat Chrysler, which gains 5,5% to 5,70 euros. The automotive sector raises its head: car sales in Western Europe (EU 15 + Switzerland) grew by 6,1% in January to 1.012.194 cars, according to data processed by Global Insight.
The FCA group recorded a 15,1% increase in sales in the month, with 70.574 cars and a market share of 7,0% (6,4% in January 2015). Volkswagen confirms itself as the market leader with a 23,6% share, but only recorded a 0,4% increase in January.
BIG DEAL IN SIGHT FOR FINMECCANICA
Other industrialists were positive: Finmeccanica (+4,8%) could close the contract in the next few days which commits Kuwait to purchase 28 Eurofighter fighters. StM +2,1%.
Among the medium caps Interpump did well: + 3,95% to 11,57 euros after the publication of the preliminary results. Banca Akros today raised its rating to buy from accumulated, with the target price confirmed at 15,3 euros per share. Mediobanca Securities went from neutral to outperform, with a target price set from 14,4 to 13,3 euro.
Ima is also advancing (+2,27%), the packaging multinational controlled by Alberto Vacchi, candidate to succeed Giorgio Squinzi in Confindustria.
TELECOM, TODAY IN ACCOUNTS. EDITORIALS AT THE GALLOP
Spotlights turned on this morning on Telecom Italia (+2%). After yesterday's board meeting, the company presents in London The bills and the business plan to the analysts. ICBPI has raised the rating on the share to buy from neutral with a target price of 1,04 euros from 1,24 euros per share.
Great leap for Mediaset (+4,5%). In the media sector, Cairo rose by 6,2%: the president and founder Urbano Cairo said that in the last three months advertising sales have been positive, it rose both in December and in January and is doing well in February.
Rcs is also making a strong recovery: +11% to 0,485 euros. The publishing company announced that advertising sales in January recorded a 5% growth, higher than that envisaged in the business plan. February was also good.
BOLZONI'S TAKEOVER PUSHES DRUMS. BUY BACK FOR A2A
The takeover bid by the American firm of Hyster-Yale Materials on the Bolzoni group has boosted Tamburi Investment Partners (+5%) which owns 11,96% of the company, a share which at the offer price corresponds to around 13,4 .2,8 million euros (XNUMX% of the NAV). Acceptance of the tender offer will make it possible to realize a significant capital gain with respect to the entry price.
A2A has announced the launch of a buyback starting today. This is what can be read in a note from the company which specifies that the maximum number of shares that can be purchased has been set at a figure equal to approximately 1% of the capital which, considering the reference price of 0,95 euro per share , corresponds to about 33,3 million.
Finally, Luxottica is advancing (+0,89%) while rumors are filtering about an interest by Leonardo Del Vecchio's group for the German Carl Zeiss. According to Fidentiis (hold, valuation range 57-58 euros) any deal would be great news.
