Banks under attack, here comes the doppio shield. From technical-political table on Tuesday a double vehicle could take shape, called to intervene - with different times and methods - on those that are considered by many, and above all by the market, the two weak points of the Italian banking system: capital increases and non-performing loans.
In any case, they are under study private tools, because a public intervention is not conceivable in such a moment. Hence the objective of involving the banks, the Foundations (yesterday there was also the president of Acri, Giuseppe Guzzetti), the CDP possibly for a minority stake and perhaps the other - few - healthy bearers of capital in Italy: social security funds , insurance, funds. The hypothesis has not yet been discussed with the European Union, as the chairman of the Management Board of Intesa Sanpaolo recalled today at the Salone del Risparmio in Milan Gian Maria Gros-Pietro, who also expressed the hope that an "accelerated and energetic recovery" of problematic credits would not be carried out, which would put banks and their customers in difficulty, especially SMEs, those most burdened by non-performing loans.
In any case, as far as it appears so far there will be on one side the instrument that will deal with guarantee the capital increases of the banks, thus allowing the achievement of the capital ratios imposed by the ECB. On the other hand, a fund that will buy non-performing loans and will be financed on the market by issuing Abs, making use of the public guarantee for the senior tranches. Separately, the two subjects will act according to a scheme not very different from the one proposed by Apollo for Carige: purchase of NPLs at low prices, proactive management with the aim of obtaining satisfactory recoveries and financing with fresh resources of the capital gap that arises create the transfer of non-performing loans at values lower than the book values.
The vehicle specifically dedicated to guarantees on increases will be the one that will have to leave first: the first test bench will be there recapitalization of Popolare di Vicenza, that barring (by now improbable) a halt from Consob, the pre-marketing should be launched on Thursday, and the price fork for the increase will be communicated around mid-April. Listing on the Stock Exchange is expected for the first few days of May, once the increase has taken place. If all the necessary 1,75 billion are not collected, Unicredit should intervene, which however meditates on withdrawing: hence, precisely, the probable need to support the new guarantee vehicle in the consortium.
According to the objectives that emerged, the "shield" for NPLs should play the role of a real investment fund focused onacquisition of non-performing loans, somewhat in the wake of the large international funds. Against the disbursement for the acquisition of non-performing loans, the private fund would be financed on the market by issuing Abs. It remains to decide which share should be covered by the issue of senior bonds, which by the mezzanine tranche and which by equity.
