The gap between northern and southern Italy is not destined to diminish in the short term and continuing in this way "it would take 400 years to recover the disadvantage that separates" the two areas of the country. In 2012, the Italian GDP should register a contraction of 2,5%, but the recession will not be homogeneous. In the Centre-North the decline will be 2,2%, while in the South the collapse will be much more serious: -3,5%. The estimates are from Svimez, the association for the development of industry in the South.
In five years, from 2007 to 2012, the GDP of the South collapsed by 10%, returning to 1997 levels. Meanwhile, it is a job alarm: in 2011 the real unemployment rate in the South reached 25,6%, more than double that of the Centre-North (10%).
In general, causing the contraction of productive activity is the sharp decline in consumption (-2,4% in the Centre-North, – 3,8% in the South) and the real collapse of investments. From this point of view, if in the Centre-North the decline is 5,7%, in the South it is more than double (-13,5%) and particularly serious in the construction sector (-15,5%).
Down too i household incomes, with similar values: -0,6% in the Centre-North, -0,5% in the South. The exports: for 2012, growth of 1,7% is forecast in the South and 1,9% in the Centre-North, especially towards non-EU countries.
On the 2013, according to the Association's estimates, the national GDP is expected to grow by 0,1%, the result of the combination of +0,3% in the Centre-North and -0,2% in the South and Islands. The collapse in consumption continued in 2013 too, falling in the South by more than double that in the other division: -1,6% against -0,7%. Also in this case the consumption of goods remains decidedly negative (-2,9% in the South compared to -0,1% in the Centre-North).
Instead, investments rose in 2013. A very tepid recovery in the South (+0,1%), more sustained instead in the other division (+2,2%), with decidedly positive signs regarding construction. Exports continue to hold: +2,1% in the Centre-North, +1,8% in the South, once again mainly due to trade with non-EU countries.
