L'Iran and Israel could be close to a break in their 12-day war after President Donald Trump announced a cease-fire, with Iran agreeing to stop shooting if Israel does so. The ceasefire would last “forever,” Trump said last night.
Despite the timing of the ceasefire remains uncertain, markets reacted positively to the news. The first to react was the Petroleum Brent crude oil fell sharply, while riskier assets rose: S&P 500 futures rose 0,5% and Nasdaq futures rose 0,7%. European stock markets are bracing for a strong rebound, with Eurostoxx50 futures up nearly 2%.euro rises above 1,16 dollars. The Bitcoin. With the potential easing of the conflict between Israel and Iran, investors' attention is turning to the Federal Reserve chairman's hearing, Jerome Powell, before Congress
The timing of the ceasefire remains uncertain
But the situation is still very fluid. The conflict, which has seen the elimination of key Iranian military leaders and scientists, the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, yesterday also included the Iranian response with the launch of missiles against Israel and a US base in Qatar. The cease-fire was brokered by Trump in a one-on-one meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with the Iranians. timing pause specification – and Israel's response to Trump's announcement – remains uncertain, and attacks were reported from both sides early this morning. But the situation is still very fluid. Rockets continued to be fired from Iran toward Israel. Israeli media reported that a building was hit and three people were killed in the rocket attack on Beersheba.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a blog post that his country would stop shooting when Israel does so and that “the final decision on ceasing our military operations will be made later.”
“Officially, Iran will begin a CEASEFIRE, and at the twelfth hour, Israel will begin a CEASEFIRE, and at the twenty-fourth hour, the official END of the 12 DAY WAR will be hailed by the world,” Trump wrote on social media.
Oil and gold prices collapse. Dollar falls. Euro at 1,16
This morning the prices of Petroleum fell nearly 3%, adding to a nearly 9% drop overnight, as the immediate threat to the vital shipping lane Strait of Hormuz seemed to have eased. U.S. crude futures fell back to $66,80 a barrel, about the lowest since June 11, before the start of Israel's attacks on Iran.
The prices of they went down to lowest in the last two weeksSpot gold fell 0,9% this morning to $3.338,39 an ounce, after hitting its lowest level since June 11 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 1,2% to $3.352,60.
Il dollar U.S. dollar, which had been supported by safe-haven demand last week, fell, while its risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand counterparts rose. Against the yen, the greenback fell 0,47% to 145,45. Theeuro rose 0,23% at $ 1,1605 , GBP advanced 0,27% to $1,3564. The Israeli shekel has rallied sharply, jumping 1% against the dollar, reaching its highest level since February 2023.
With regard to cryptocurrency, bitcoin rose more than 1% to $105.155,52, while ether jumped 2,7% to $2.412,54, reflecting positive sentiment on risk.
Wall Street closed higher yesterday. The Dow Jones ended the day with an increase of 0,89%, at 42.582 points; along the same lines, positive performance for the S&P-500, which ends the day up 0,96% and for the Nasdaq 100 (+1,06%). Worth mentioning is Tesla Motors (+8,24%) after the presentation of the robotaxi.
Attention Shifts to Powell and Rates
This comes as a relief to inflation global, which will ease central banks' efforts to tame inflation somewhat. With the potential easing of the conflict between Israel and Iran, investors' attention is turning to the Federal Reserve chairman's hearing tonight, Jerome Powell, before Congress. The Fed has not made any interest rate decisions this year because of the inflationary impact of Trump's tariffs. And Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee has said that, so far, the tariffs have had a more modest economic impact than expected.
Last evening Trump he said i rates of interest should be lower by at least two or three points and that the Federal Reserve could raise them later if the situation worsens. “We should be at least two or three points lower. If the situation turns negative later, raise the rate,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.
Some Fed officials moreover they have demonstrated that don't be so sympathetic to Powell anymore, whose hawkish stance on rates has drawn Trump's ire. Michelle Bowman of the Fed said tonight that it is open to cut rates in July, while Governor Christopher Waller said he would consider a rate cut next month. Other Fed officials will speak tonight, with New York Fed President John Williams delivering the keynote address in New York, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaking on monetary policy in London.
The in EuropeCentral bankers are busy: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will make public appearances in London and there are also a number of speeches by ECB officials on the agenda.
Positive Asia. Japan resumes negotiations on US tariffs
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 2,1% as the Japanese Nikkei rises by 1,4%. Two sources reported to Reuters that the Japanese negotiator on customs duties, Ryosei Akazawa, is planning his seventh visit to the United States as early as June 26, aiming to end tariffs that are hurting the Japanese economy.
Le bags of China are in the green. Hang Seng in Hong Kong +2%. CSI300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes +1%. Taipei Taiex +1,7%. Beijing announced that it will organize a large military parade on September 3 in Tiananmen to celebrate 80 years since the end of World War II, known as the 'Victory of the Chinese People in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War'.
In South Korea, Seoul stocks rose 2,7%, hitting their highest level since September 2021. The won appreciated against the dollar to 1.364, from 1.383 the day before. South Korea's consumer sentiment improved for the third straight month on expectations for the new government and its economic program, according to central bank data released overnight.
European stock markets seen starting with turbo. Eyes on Mediobanca, Saipem, Mps
Le European stock exchanges are seen starting sharply higher, based on the indications of the Euro Stoxx 50 Future in September up by almost 2%.
Mediobanca surprisingly announced that on Friday 27 June it will release the projections of the financial targets for 2028 (the current plan stops at 2026), thus aligning them in time with the objectives indicated by MPS, whose takeover bid should start in July. The targets, of course, will not include Banca Generali: the meeting to discuss the operation on the institute will be held on 25 September. Mediobanca is maintaining the strategic lines of the “One Brand One Culture” plan for 2026, the targets of which had been revised upwards in February. Furthermore, yesterday the bank in Piazzetta Cuccia announced that it had purchased 297.000 own actions at an average price of 19,17 euros and for a total value of 5,7 million. The Mediobanca stock closed yesterday with a decrease of 0,6% at 19,135 euros.
Saipem has been awarded with Enilive, the ENI company dedicated to biorefining, biomethane production, smart mobility solutions and the marketing and distribution of all energy vectors for mobility, a new contract for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) activities aimed at the expansion of the Enilive biorefinery in Porto Marghera, near Venice, worth approximately 155 million euros.
sapphire and fashion brand Carolina Herrera have renewed their global licensing agreement for the design, production and distribution of Carolina Herrera branded eyewear collections through December 2031.
Eni, Tenaris could react to the sharp drop in oil prices.
Monte Paschi Bank. Bank of America raises rating to Buy. The ECB has given the green light to the acquisition proposal of the Tuscan bank from Mediobanca, according to what was reported by a source familiar with the matter Reuters. The European Commission is examining the Italian government's sale of MPS shares last year, following claims that large investors were excluded from the bidding process, the Financial Times. UniCredit, the Norwegian oil fund and BlackRock were among those interested in buying MPS shares, but were told that the offer had already been closed by Banca Akros, it says ft extension
Leonardo. Today begins the NATO summit in The Hague. Giorgia Meloni said that Italy will take ten years to reach the threshold of 3,5% of military spending, plus an additional 1,5% in hybrid investments, military-civilian.
Unicredit. According to rumors, the Spanish government is about to impose further limits on BBVA's bid for Banco Sabadell.
Italian post. Jefferies cuts recommendation to 'hold' from 'buy', raises target price to 18,40 euros from 18.
Intesa Sanpaolo. Bank of America Cuts Rating to Neutral
Prysmian. Deutsche Bank initiates coverage with Buy rating.
General Bank. Jefferies raises target price.
