Le European stock exchanges they put together another session in progress and Business Square closes today rise of 0,64%, ever closer to 30 thousand basis points (29.928 points). At the same time it narrows spread and government bond yields fall, while Istat raises its estimates for the third quarter's GDP, although the health of businesses, as captured by the PMI index, appears increasingly precarious.
December also starts off on the right foot for the financial centers of Frankfurt + 1,09% London + 1,04% Amsterdam + 0,83% Madrid + 0,79% Paris +0,48%. The mining sector is helping out, driven by increases in metal prices.
Overseas Wall Street it moved little on the day of a public speech in Atlanta by the Fed's number one, Jerome Powell. The DJ salt by 0,39%, lo S & P 500 by 0,34%, the Nasdaq +0,16%, after closing a month of large gains yesterday.
The first words of Powell they seem to be perceived positively, so much so that the price lists are accelerating slightly. “It is premature to say with certainty that the process of increasing interest rates is over – claims the banker – and it is too early to talk about reducing rates”.
All eyes on Powell
Supporting sentiment is the belief that central banks have finished their job of raising the cost of money and that they could begin to cut in the first half of 2024. Bets are almost 50% for a reduction in rates already in the month of March by the Fed. Now Jerome Powell has the last chance to say something relevant before the December 14th meeting of the US central bank. Yesterday the data onNovember inflation in the eurozone and the United States have strengthened the belief that the hawkish season is over. The slowdown in prices was especially surprising in the area of the single currency; in fact, even today theeuro loses share against the dollar, for an exchange rate below 1,09.
Powell is not perceived as a hawk by T-bonds, who see rising prices and falling rates. The 4,26-year is at XNUMX%.
Manufacturing in Europe improves slightly
The premise is that in European manufacturing you remain in the area of contraction, but the observation is that the PMI indices for November improved slightly in Germany (to 42,6 from 40,8 and against estimates at 42,3) and in France (to 42,9 from 42,8, against expectations of 42,6 ,XNUMX).
Italy is doing a little better overall, but the trend appears to be decreasing: 44,4 from 44,9.
Meanwhile, Istat announces that, in the third quarter of the year, Italian gross domestic product grew by 0,1% compared to both the previous quarter and the third quarter of 2022. The change acquired for 2023 is equal to at +0,7%, equal to that estimated on 31 October 2023.
The data on the ISM manufacturing for November also arrives from the States, lower than expected: in the final reading, at 49,4 points, from 50 points in October. Expectations were for a figure of 49,6 points. Below 50 you are in the contraction zone.
Oil flat after yesterday's volatility
Yesterday, oil closed a volatile session down by around 2%, following the OPEC+ meeting in which new production cuts were decided for 2024. The news, however, was received with a certain skepticism due to the voluntary nature of the reductions, while the absence of a press conference and final statements from the producers, according to Bloomberg, generated confusion among operators on the real intentions of the cartel.
At the moment the February Brent future is stagnating around 81 dollars a barrel; the Texas crude contract, January 2024, is floating around $76,1 per barrel.
Metals rise, as we say, and spot gold also appreciates by 0,85% above 2051 dollars an ounce.
Piazza Affari in the wake of CNH
Far from looking like the walking dead, in view of the exit from Business Square, Cnh Industrial today has another effervescent session and is the best blue chip of the day with an increase of 4,93%, also thanks to the improvement in the long-term rating to 'BBB+' from 'BBB' by S&P Global.
In industry it is in evidence Prysmian +3,31%, thanks to the award of a contract worth approximately 850 million euros assigned by Eastern Green Link 1 Limited.
Oil stocks are confirmed as rallying yesterday in cash Saipem +2,45% and Tenaris + 2,13%.
Banks continue to get noticed as of today Bpm bank + 1,85 e Bper +0,99%%. Well Iveco + 2,09% Leonardo + 1,88% nexi + 1,65% stellantis + 1,02%.
The reductions are limited: we start from Amplifon -1,33% Ferrari -0,54, Diasorin -0,41% Moncler -0,39%.
Outside the main basket it shows its muscles Technogym +6,88%, after the entry of the Saudi fund Nif into the capital.
Spreads and yields falling
The happy season of state titles also continues. The spread between 169-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration it falls to 4,06 basis points and rates fall to 2,36% and XNUMX% respectively.
