The Eurozone economy slows down in 2020 and the Italian one continues not to take off: the Italian GDP, according to the forecasts published by the European Commission, will exceed the percentage point of negative difference this year compared to the average growth of the other 19 countries in the single currency, and also in 2020 it will be 0,7% lower.
“The growth of GDP in real terms – wrote Brussels in the forecast report, with regard to Italy – was stagnant in the three months to June and economic activity is not expected to pick up significantly before the end of the year”. The EU therefore indicates that in recent months the factors that supported growth in the first quarter have probably been exhausted and "overturned", and that external demand has remained weak. Just as the recovery will be weak, expected only for the end of 2019.
At the press conference the Eurocommissioner for Economic Affairs, Pierre Moscovici did not fail to underline that "at the end of 2018, the Italian government forecast growth of 2019% in 1,5, then the consensus indicated 1% and now we are at 0,1%: we can conclude that things are not go so positively”. And again, he concluded: "I think Italy needs reforms that increase potential growth and strengthen competitiveness and increased productivity, strengthening the industrial system: we cannot be satisfied when we are systematically one percentage point of growth at below that of the euro area, this is not permissible”.
As regards the numbers, the Commission confirmed the estimates of growth of Italy's GDP this year at 0,1% and next year at 0,7%, confirming the estimates of the Italian Government. In the Eurozone, on the other hand, GDP growth this year is confirmed at +1,2%, while for 2020 it was slightly reduced to 1,4%, compared to the 1,5% predicted last February. In the EU 27, on the other hand, growth is expected in 2019 and 2020 at 1,4% and 1,6% respectively, an estimate unchanged compared to February.
In Germany, GDP growth is estimated at 2019% in 0,5, at 2020% in 1,4; in France 1,3% and 1,4%; in Spain 2,3% and 1,9%; in Greece 2,1% and 2,2%. In the United Kingdom growth of 1,3% in both years. Inflation chapter: in the eurozone it will increase by 1,3% in both years, with a cut in the estimate of 0,1% compared to what was forecast in February. In the EU it will increase by 1,5% this year and 1,6% next year, again down from the 1,6% and 1,7% respectively estimated in February. In Italy it will be even more sluggish: +0,8% in 2019 and +1% in 2020.
