“We can't afford to wait,” a spokeswoman for President Biden said yesterday about aid to the economy. But the warning also applies to the international situation, a few hours after Xi Jingping's speech at the Davos forum, naturally in virtual form and preceded by a new record: with a 4% growth despite the pandemic, China has exceeded US FDI dropped 49% overseas. Meanwhile, just to set the record straight, two squadrons of 13 Chinese warplanes violated Taiwan's airspace between Saturday and Sunday. A group of US ships, led by the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, has entered the South China Sea. The new US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, whose appointment has not yet been confirmed by the Senate, had this note published: "We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure against Taiwan". Skirmishes that, at least for now, don't disturb the markets too much (only a modest drop of half a point for the island's price list), concentrated on measures to relaunch the US economy.
ALIBABA +4%. JACK MA IS BACK
In the final session, the Tokyo Nikkei was up 0,4%. Chinese stock exchanges are galloping, especially Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+2,2%), committed to mending the gap accumulated over the course of 2020.
Alibaba discounts the "Jack is back" effect today too: +4%. Tencent, the other important name in Chinese high tech, is rallying (+8%) on expectations of a good debut on the stock exchange of the investee Kuaishou Techonology, the company behind the Weixin app, used in corporate video communications.
Seoul's Kospi is up 2%. Sydney's S&P ASX 200 +0,5%. Australia's health authorities approved Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine for Covid-19 tonight. The inoculation campaign should begin at the end of February, with 80 doses a day.
WHO: THE PANDEMIC COSTS 3,5 POINTS OF GDP
In a few hours with the publication of the World Health Organization report. the pandemic is leading to an average loss of 3,5% of GDP in advanced economies, a drain that is bound to grow if there is no effective vaccination plan for the benefit of the poorest countries.
Brent oil unchanged at 55,4 dollars a barrel. Drilling rigs active last week in the US rose to 378, the highest number since May, but about half the levels before the outbreak of the pandemic. The euro dollar is little moved, at 1,218.
USA, WE WILL ACCELERATE THE STIMULUS TO THE ECONOMY
Another important appointment of the week will be the congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, which will elect the country's leaders for the next five years behind closed doors.
In the US, the file for theimpeachment of Donald Trump, accused of inciting insurrection. The process is expected to start no earlier than February 8, also to avoid the interruption of appointments by the Biden administration. 51% of Americans, according to a Reuters poll, believe that Trump should be considered guilty.
In this climate, the economic policy of the Biden era is taking its first steps, characterized by the stimulus plan for 1.900 billion dollars that will have to be examined by Congress. It will undoubtedly be the hottest topic of the first Fed meeting of 2021, which will close on Wednesday with the press conference by President Jerome Powell.
Goldman Sachs predicts that, under the pressure of the administration's interventions, US GDP will rise this year by 6,6%, while the unemployment rate will fall to 4,5%. US GDP data for the fourth quarter will be announced on Thursday (first reading). But the week will be full of macro data both in Europe (today the German Ifo index) and in Asia (South Korea). On Friday, the trend of the GDP of France, Germany, Spain, Taiwan and Hong Kong will be known.
VACCINES. THE EU TODAY IS PROCEEDING ASTRA ZENECA
In the Old Continent, the delay in the distribution of vaccines holds the ground. The European Union's goal to vaccinate 70 percent of the population by the summer and 80 percent of the elderly over 80 and health personnel by March fell into crisis after AstraZeneca announced on Friday it would not able to deliver the doses expected in the first quarter of 2021. AstraZeneca was convened today for a new meeting with the Commission.
"PILOTATED" CRISIS IN ROME. THE BTP 10 SUFFER
On the Italian front, discussions between the government and the social partners are on the agenda to launch the aid and loan plan worth over 200 billion made available by Europe. But much will depend on the evolution of imminent political crisis. The prospect of a step backwards by Prime Minister Conte, who could already go up to Colle today to formalize the crisis by resigning, takes shape. Objective: to form a new "national salvation government". Last week, thanks to the crisis of Conte's majority, the reference ten-year BTP expiring in 2031 experienced the worst five days of decline in nine months, returning to a yield of 0,74%. And between Wednesday and Thursday the government will have to face another vote in parliament, on the report of the Minister of Justice M5S, Alfonso Bonafede.
QUARTERLY, APPLE RACES TOWARDS 100 BILLION TURNOVER
Among the corporate data, the accounts of the greats of technology hold the table. Particularly awaited are the results of Apple, expected to rise sharply given the market response to the new iPhone. The bet is whether or not Apple's turnover will have exceeded the peak of one hundred billion dollars. We begin today with the balance sheet of the Korean Samsung and Microsoft.
Also scheduled are the accounts of other big names in the market: in the lead is Tesla (Wednesday), Facebook and Caterpillar and the big names in pharma, from Eli Lilly to Johnson & Johnson, via Abbott.
Judging by broker reports, market sentiment remains optimistic. But a short-term correction to recover the necessary flexibility cannot be ruled out.
