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Btp-bund spread swings: false alarm for the Italian differential

It exceeded 500 bp in the first minutes of the morning and then dropped again and settled around 480 points – From Wednesday the spread is calculated considering a new, less liquid reference security: this is the explanation for the increase recorded in the last few days – Continue to widening the gap between the Italian and Spanish differential.

Btp-bund spread swings: false alarm for the Italian differential

After the first few minutes of fear, in which it had touched 503 basis points, the Italian spread fell again below the psychological threshold of 500 basis points. At 9.45 he stands at 480 basis points, with the yield on 10-year bonds at 6,722 euros. In recent days, the alarm of a rise in the spread above 500 points has been raised several times. The reason lies in the fact that last Wednesday the Ministry of the Economy changed the reference security with which the Btp-Bund differential is calculated.

Time passes for everyone and the new benchmark for the 10-year bond is the BTP expiring in March 2022 and no longer the one that repaid the creditors in September 2021. Since it has been on the market for less time, this bond is less liquid and therefore its higher yield: for this reason the spread with the Bund has increased. Some platforms are still changing the reference security for calculating the difference between the returns of the two securities.

The Spanish spread is also in free fall, but the gap with Italy continues to be very wide. The spread between Bonos and the Bund has reached 325 basis points. Downtrend also for Oat and lo spread of France, which stands at 118 bps.

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