The controversy over the rating agencies is rekindled after the intervention of S&P which not only today feared the possible rating cut of 15 Eurozone countries but also, as a consequence, put the rating of the fund to save the EFSF states under observation. S&P's move is "completely out of time" and seems to be linked more "to political factors than to economic fundamentals," said the governor of the Bank of France, Christian Noyer. S&P intervenes with outstretched leg, however only in the form of a warning, in the middle of a decisive week for the stability of the Euro.
The markets, albeit negative, did not capitulate: the Ftse Mib closed down by 0,49% at 15.848,21 points, the Cac by 0,68% and the Ftse 100 resisted practically unchanged (+0,01%) . The Dax is the heaviest list with a drop of more than one percentage point (-1,27%): for the first time Germany has to deal with the possibility that even its triple A, never questioned until now, be cut by the rating agencies.
MARKETS WAITING FOR THE EUROPEAN SUMMIT
THE BTP-BUND SPREAD HOLDS AT 363
The markets moved cautiously in anticipation of the ECB meeting on Thursday, which could cut interest rates by another 25 basis points and the European summit scheduled for Thursday and Friday. The details of yesterday's Franco-German agreement will also be known tomorrow. Contrasted Wall Street after a slight rise at the start: at the close of the European markets, the Dow Jones rose by 0,31% and the Nasdaq dropped by 0,18%.
Due to S&P's move, the spread was also slightly tense which, after rising above 380 points, cooled down again to 368 points. But during the day, in the wake of the harsh Monti maneuver (the decree was signed today by President Napolitano) the spread fell to a minimum of 356. The move by S&P also disturbed the French spread. The euro is once again losing ground at 1,339 dollars. Oil was also down slightly to 100,6 dollars a barrel.
GERMAN INDUSTRIAL ORDERS RISE BY SURPRISE
CONFCOMMERCIO: ITALY ALREADY IN RECESSION
On the macroeconomic front, surprisingly, a sudden push came from Germany: in October, German industrial orders surprisingly marked a monthly leap of 5,2% (+1% on expectations), marking the strongest rise in 19 months . A leap that comes after three months of consecutive declines. The data on the GDP of the Eurozone released today instead confirmed the expectations of +0,2% on a quarterly basis and +1,4% on an annual basis. But in Italy Confcommercio is sounding the alarm: "We are already in a recession" which forecasts for 2012 a drop in consumption of 0,3% and a drop in GDP of 0,6%.
BMPS, BPER AND UBI THE THREE BEST STOCKS
BUT OTHER BANKS CLOSE IN THE RED
In Piazza Affari the Bmps increase is confirmed (+ 1,44%, best stock of the Ftse Mib). In recent days the hypothesis of a role for the CDP in the recapitalization of the bank has taken shape (tomorrow the EBA meets for the final verdict on the need for capital of European banks) and the Foundation says it is willing to go below 50%. It rose by 1,34%, the second best stock, the Bper and by 1,06% Ubi Banca (third best stock). The other banks were bad: Bpm lost 3,28%, Unicredit 1,32%, Intesa 0,82%, Banco Popolare 1,45%. Fondiaria Sai collapses by 4,30% (while Generali closes up by 0,79%). According to what was reported by Il Messaggero, Isvap would have slowed down the operation through which the company of the Ligresti group would have conferred the strategic shareholdings in a single vehicle, 40% of which would then be purchased by Credit Suisse. At the basis of this decision would be the fact that FonSai maintains control of the vehicle, while making cash and benefiting from 8-12 percentage points on the solvency ratios.
Among the worst stands out Finmeccanica (-4,83%), which is unable to confirm the rebounds after the exit of the president Guarguaglini despite the new order arriving from the USA for 691 million through the subsidiary Drs Technologies. Also down were Pirelli (-2,55%) and Fiat (-2,82%).
