Draghi wanted to give a strong signal to the Greek government but in fact there is nothing serious and the sell-off represents an opportunity to enter the European market with the Old Continent and Asia representing the bets for 2015. of the unexpected move of the Eurotower Claudia Segre, general secretary of Assiom Forex, takes stock of the market scenarios while the 21st congress of the Association is underway in Milanof the Financial Operators. On the operators' lens, in addition to Draghi and Greece, also oil and China.
Draghi surprised the markets by anticipating the decision to suspend the derogation from the minimum eligibility requirements of the bonds issued by Athens compared to 28 February. In other words, it will no longer accept Greek debt to guarantee the liquidity given to Greek banks. What do you think?
It is a strong signal for those who have recently had the opportunity to speak out of turn, and I am referring to the Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis and Prime Minister Tsipras who in their latest statements expressed themselves as if it were already a done deal with the ECB. And this obviously did not please. It is therefore a strong signal that the Eurotower wanted to send to bring the ball back to the center of the discussion and put the right weights in the comparison. A lesson to Tsipras on how to behave when he comes to the negotiating table.
Is the market reaction justified?
In fact, there is nothing that serious. Greek banks have already suffered outflows before and after the Greek elections and in an emergency they can still turn to the Emergency liquidity assistant (ELA), as they have already done. It is clearly expensive and the ECB can decide to stop it. It is therefore an excellent opportunity to enter the European market after the PMI data which clarified that there is a beginning of recovery in countries such as Spain and Italy as opposed to France which is in trouble.
What do you think of the Greek debt plan anticipated by the Financial Times?
It must be judged on two levels. In terms of market perception, any solution in the short term is welcome because for the markets it means looking ahead without the Greece problem given that there are other pending issues on the table, from deflation to the Ukrainian crisis. In terms of content, fully adhering to this proposal, which not surprisingly has been disseminated by Anglo-Saxon newspapers, poses a problem of balance with other countries such as Spain and Portugal which have adhered to the Troika's recipes and have not made this type of request . If the ECB had joined, it is clear that the other countries could also have complained about the different treatment. And this cannot be afforded at a time when the Podemos party is bringing thousands of people to the streets. We cannot afford two weights and two measures.
The reference to the move by the Anglo-Saxon newspapers leaves no interpretative doubts…
In May there are elections, the result of which is inscrutable. One of the hot topics is the referendum against the Euro and Anglo-Saxon newspapers have always been careful to make noise. Anything that can fuel chaos in support of the pound is welcome.
In addition to the Greek crisis, the rapid decline in oil prices dominates the markets. Which on the one hand offers a boost to growth in the future, but on the other it is rocking the energy sector. What is the sign of the balance?
The effect is double-edged but for Europe the balance will be positive and, in general, it will be for all countries with high bills such as China, India and Turkey. What suffers are the energy groups that have to downsize personnel, development projects and margins. Those who can afford these lower margins survive, therefore the Saudis and the Middle East. However, let us not forget that the OPEC strategy does not depend only on production and competitiveness needs with the aim of throwing shale gas off the market, but also on the strategy against ISIS which, having taken over the refineries, sold oil on the black market derives its own economic resources. Reducing the price therefore also means reducing the margins for the Islamic State.
Furthermore, the drop in oil is shifting Russia's balance towards Asia. A process that began with the NSA scandal and continued with Ukraine, which I remember is not a NATO country. All this at the expense of Europe which has been drawn into these sanctions which have closed us off from the outlet valve on the Russian market. And it was seen in the data on retail sales where Russian tourists fell in rank. We are in a chaotic situation of change of structures at the European level and this will lead to further problems on the Ukrainian issue in the long term. the recent collapse of the hryvnia or other similar events will fuel new volatility in the markets.
In this scenario, how to look at emerging countries?
The emerging can be the big bet of 2015 but also the big losers also because QE has different impacts according to the countries. The choice of emerging countries must be made in the equity sphere through a stock picking activity against a detailed analysis of the country's risk. There are currencies that are overvalued but others that are undervalued, such as the Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty. Mainland Asia wins over all other emerging countries, especially China. The news that the Chinese central bank has launched a new expansionary monetary policy intervention by injecting 100 billion dollars into the system has gone somewhat unnoticed. On Japan it is too early to make a judgment, we have to wait for the implementation of the third arrow of Abe's plan.
In Latin America, however, Brazil is in the shadows and now the international scandal of Petrobras has also been added.
In summary, the indications on the markets?
At the moment, the European markets remain among the favourites, both equity and bond markets, and the Asian markets, the two real bets of 2015.
