From crack to boom. In ten years – December 20, 2011 was the anniversary of the default – the Latin American country has seen tremendous growth. Today it is not only the most thriving economy on the continent but also the country with the second highest growth rate in the world, surpassed only by China. Professor Giulio Sapelli, Professor of Economic History at the State University of Milan and a great expert on Argentina and South America, has reconstructed, together with FIRSTonline, the history of this boom and has traced possible scenarios for the evolution of the country in the coming years, under the leadership of Cristina Kirchner. The president, elected for the second time last November, has just undergone (perfectly successful) thyroid surgery because she is suffering from cancer, but the doctors say that the cancer is limited and "perfectly curable".
The country has played a fundamental role in the growth of the country dizzying increase in global demand for commodities which, combined with a weak currency, has allowed exports to soar. In addition the boom in neighboring Brazil and sharp increase in public spending they supported the economy of Argentina, which can now be defined as an advanced country. Indeed, in 2011 the increase in the tertiary sector was more decisive than in the industrial one, and this, as Sapelli noted, "is a sign of the re-birth of an Argentina which is an advanced country and which, let us not forget, in in the 50s he was doing nuclear research and had started a project to create the atomic bomb”.
Yet, according to the professor, the specter of the end of these good results hangs over the Porteña economy. “What worries me the most,” explained Sapelli, “is the way the government has reallocated resources in the country. The redistribution of wealth has not been productive at all. The sectors of the economy in which the highest growth rates are recorded are those which do not receive funding from the state.” And in the latest data published by Cepal, the United Nations commission for Latin America, it clearly emerges that the automotive, manufacturing and agri-food sectors – industries that do not receive government transfers – are the sectors in which production has increased more. And it is precisely the industries that Kirchner has decided to tax to ensure the bloated income of the Casa Rosada. But, "this welfare based on a fiscal redistribution has negative effects because it fails to produce growth".
If then we add the problems related to the calculation of theinflation – less than 10% according to the national institute of statistics but more than 20% according to data from the Monetary Fund and the World Bank -, the slowdown in Brazilian growth – which in 2011 will increase by 3 percentage points less than the previous year – the global slowdown affecting exports, it is not so absurd to fear for the sustainability of this model which has so far brought growth, but very little development. “Surely one answer cannot be the one that Kirchner seems to prefer, i.e. protectionism. If Argentina hopes to defend itself with customs barriers, it is a dead country."
“We are in a moment of redefinition of the balance of global trade which inevitably also affects Latin America. Surely Europe will have to take this into account more than it has done in the past.” But according to Sapelli, Mercosur will not be the real alliance of the future. “The center of gravity of the world economy is shifting to the Pacific, so I more easily imagine a division between the countries bordering the Atlantic and those facing Asia instead".
From this Argentinian experience there are some interesting food for thought also for our Europe in crisis. “The sector that grows the most and in the healthiest way is that of small and medium-sized enterprises, which however works as long as there are reference companies and a system to refer to. FurthermoreArgentina teaches us that we shouldn't be so afraid of default. States are not like companies: if they default, they still have the authority". And it is thanks to the enormous, and perhaps exaggerated, trust in public authority that a people of intellectuals and great willpower has managed to re-born from below. That Europe too doesn't need its Peronist leader? "Absolutely not, centralized political vertigo can have devastating effects." Perhaps then, to definitively avert the fear of a default, we would need a ruling class in which we can recognize ourselves and in which we can believe more.
