Happy Saint Valentine's. The Stock Exchanges, awaiting US inflation data, hope that a too rapid rise in prices will not force the Fed to raise the cost of money too quickly, jeopardizing the long flirtation with the Bull and creating the conditions for renewed turbulence .
Europe is also awaiting its Valentine's Day: today the final data of the Italian gross domestic product will be released and, above all, those relating to Germany, confirming the excellent state of health of the economy beyond the Rhine. Both signals fall on the markets stressed by the deep price correction recorded last week under the pressure of the return of volatility and anxious to measure the leadership of the new Fed chairman.
Yesterday Jerome Powell, in his speech for his inauguration ceremony, underlined that "the global economy is recovering strongly for the first time in a decade" and that "the financial system is extraordinarily stronger and more secure, with of much higher capital and liquidity, with better risk management and other improvements”. And the Stock Exchanges, albeit cautiously, tend to subscribe to this version in the name of trust. Happy Valentine's Day, indeed. We'll see.
CHINA ALREADY ON HOLIDAY, OLYMPIC SEOUL
The Asian price lists contrasted this morning. It drops in Tokyo, with the Nikkei index, penalized by the strength of the Japanese currency, at a 15-month high: the dollar-yen cross moves to 107,2 from 107,8 the day before. The euro traded this morning at 1,237 against the US currency.
On the eve of the long holiday for the end of the lunar year, the Chinese Stock Exchanges moved little: CSI300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges -0,1%. Hong Kong +0,7%.
The Korean stock market rose, supported by the Olympic atmosphere: Kospi index +0,9%. The Indian Stock Exchange is flat.
THIRD RAISE FOR WALL STREET, TWITTER FLYING
Third consecutive session up for Wall Street, at the end of a busy day. The Dow Jones rose by 0,16%, to 24.640 points, after losing 180, but also gaining 100. The Nasdaq closed up 0,45%, a slight final rise for the S&P500 (+6,94 points).
The yield on 10-year Treasury bills fell to 2,82% (vs. 2,84%).
In evidence Amazon (+ 2%) and Apple (+ 1%), despite the CEO Tim Cook has cooled the expectation of extraordinary dividends linked to the return of funds to the USA.
The best blue chip is Cisco (+1,6%). Twitter's flight continues: +7%, to 27 dollars, the highest in the last two and a half years.
MORGAN STANLEY SLIMS ENI'S TARGET
Volatile oil, after a positive start now Brent is down to 62,29 dollars a barrel, -0,48 dollars.
Eni, which will announce the results on Saturday 16 February, closed down by 0,8%, at 13,38 euros. Morgan Stanley reiterated the Underweight recommendation, reducing the target price to 14,20 euros, from 14,60 euros. Saipem -2%, Tenaris -1%.
EUROPE IN RED. THE SHORT OF SPECULATION GROWS
Another difficult session for the European markets, awaiting US inflation data and signals from central banks. In this climate of uncertainty, the markets of core Europe are strengthened (indeed, weakened less) than in the south of the eurozone. The "short" positions on listed companies in the Old Continent, according to an elaboration by Il Sole 24 Ore on S&P Market Intelligence data, amount to 103 billion, twice the numbers at the beginning of 2017.
For the second consecutive day, the Milan Stock Exchange is bringing up the queues on the Old Continent. The Ftse Mib index dropped 1,35%, at 22.034 points. The positive performance since the beginning of the year is reduced to a flicker, but the rest of Europe and the world has already plunged into heavy red for a few sessions: Eurostoxx -5%. Madrid follows closely with a drop of 1,2%. Less marked losses in Frankfurt (-0,7%) and Paris (-0,6%). London limits damage to 0,15%. In January, the growth of the price index was in the order of 3%.
ITALIAN INDUSTRY IN RALLY
Italian industry grew beyond expectations in December, closing 2017 with an average increase in production of 3%, the best for seven years, which has allowed our country to keep pace with its main European partners: the the increase was "identical to that of Spain, higher than that of France and just lower than that of German industry", underlines Nicola Nobile, economist at Oxford Economics.
Negative performance yesterday for the Italian bond market, in line with the trend of the periphery of the euro zone and weighed down by the offer of new paper by the Treasury.
BTP INCREASE, 7,677 BILLION SOLD AT AUCTION
Yesterday the MEF placed a total of 7,677 billion BTPs at 3, 7 and 30 years, just under the maximum amount offered (7,75 billion), with yields rising to the highest since October for the two shorter maturities. The yield on the 10-year BTP rises to 2,08%; the spread with the Bund widens to 133.30 points, +4,14%.
Intense days on the supply side. Today the calendar foresees 1,5 billion Bund over 30 years and up to 1,25 billion Portuguese bonds for 2022 and 2028; Thursday will be the turn of the Spanish and French auctions, for a total maximum amount of 15 billion, including indexed.
BANKS, TARGET SHOOTING ON MPS AND CARIGE
Banks, the barometer of the Italian stock exchange, are at the basis of Milan's worst performance: the basket ended down by 1,96%. Under fire Unicredit (-3,39%), Banco Bpm (-3,24%) and Ubi (-2,58%). Bper was also down (-1,33%): Equita's recommendation remains firm at "hold", while the target price was revised upwards from 4,3 to 5,3 euros.
Intesa Sanpaolo was also in the red (-0,98%) which was not enough the record profits of the pole between Fideuram and Intesa private banking, which recorded a net profit up 2017% to 11 million euros in 871, thanks to funding at an all-time high of 12,4 billion.
The fall of Banca Monte Paschi, triggered by the publication of the 2017 results, continues: JP Morgan has cut the target price to 4 from 4,20 euros. Carige (-2,63%) and Creval (-3,05%) also suffer outside the main basket, judged by Equita as the ideal candidate for a merger in view of the new wave of M&A that could characterize the sector.
The best stock was that of Mediobanca (-0,04%), supported by press rumors about an interest in Allianz Bank.
Banca Generali (-4,31%), Azimut (-1%), Mediolanum (-4%) and Anima (-4%) suffered in the managed sector. Among the insurance companies, Generali -1,75%.
MONCLER, MEDIOBANCA'S FAVORITE STOCK
Sad Valentine's Eve for luxury brands. In Paris, Kering, which owns the Gucci brand, dropped 3,2% despite better-than-expected sales in the fourth quarter. Rival LVMH also fell 1,2% after Monday's 4% jump. Moncler instead closed unchanged at 26,55 euros, canceling the gains in the final despite Mediobanca Securities having raised the recommendation on the stock from neutral to outperform, choosing the stock as its top pick for 2018 in the luxury sector.
ONLY FERRARI AND PIAGGIO GO ON
The decline has not spared other blue chips. Telecom Italia lost 2,6%, while the European telephony sector index fell by 1,2%. The utilities are under fire: Enel -0,7%, A2A -1,3%, Atlantia -1,6%, Buzzi -0,8%. Among the industrials still sales on Leonardo (-2,66%), Prysmian (-1,72%) and Fiat Chrysler (-2,03%).
Among the few plus signs is Ferrari (+0,4% at 99,40 euros): Equita confirmed the Buy recommendation, raising the target price to 120 euros from 110 euros.
Piaggio was in positive territory (+0,17%) after the publication of the January sales figures for light commercial vehicles in India in January. Banca Imi (buy, Target 3,1 euro) and Banca Akros (buy, Tp 3 euro) state that the figure has exceeded expectations.
In the rest of the list, Ima +5,5%, supported by the Buy of Equita, as well as Mittel (+4,91%). Txt e-Solutions +2,7%.
