THEItalian export continues to hold solid. After strong growth recorded last year (+20%), mainly thanks to the increase in prices, exports of goods are expected in 2023 will increase by 6,8%, surpassing i 660 billion euros to continue at a rate of 4,6% in 2024 and an average annual rate of 3,8% in the following two years. 2023 is expected to be a year with a weak but positive macroeconomic outlook, followed by a more dynamic 2024, with a estimated global GDP growth al + 1,7 % this year and +2,5% the following year. Great impetus comes from green investments and new technologies. This is what emerges from Export Report 2023, Entitled “The future is now. Together" is Sace, an insurance-financial group, directly controlled by the Mef, active in supporting businesses and the national economic fabric, presented yesterday. In the current context, characterized by shocks and uncertainties, the report underlines that investing in digitalisation, innovation and energy transition is essential for strengthening the competitiveness of Italian companies on international markets and promoting sustainable growth.
The Italian market share increases
An increase in the contribution of volumes to Italian economic growth is expected this year (+1,3%), albeit still moderately due to the weakness of international trade. However, this growth will gradually intensify over the next three years. There Italian market share globally increased from 2,4% to 2,6% in 2022 and could further increase in 2023, despite a slight deterioration in price competitiveness, in line with Germany and France. In the service sector, exports continue to perform well, exceeding pre-pandemic values in 2022 and showing solid growth again this year (+7%). Over the forecast period, they are expected to return to rates in line with the historical average, exceeding €140 billion. The tourism sector will be one of the main drivers of this growth.
Export Italy: Germany, United States, France and China main markets
Although major economies such as Germany, USA, France and China remain i main markets of reference for Italian sales, there are important changes taking place. Gulf countries, India, Thailand, Vietnam, Mexico, Brazil and Croatia are presenting increasingly significant opportunities for Italian exports. It is expected that the China register one + 17% growth in 2023, thanks to its complete reopening after years of anti-Covid restrictions. This will benefit not only Chinese industrial sectors, but also countries well integrated in its supply chains. L'India, in fact, is confirmed as one of the growing markets for Italian exports of goods, with a growth forecast of +10,3% in 2023. Its evolution of the production system in recent years and the government's commitment to focus on this sector contribute to this result. Furthermore, Italian sales will benefit from the solid economic growth of Vietnam, which is expected to see an increase of +8,1% in our exports in 2023 and +6,5% in 2024.
Exports to i Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia (+15,6%) ed United Arab Emirates (+10%) where Italian exports show double-digit growth rates this year and no less than 5% in 2024. Mexico (+ 8,4%) and Brazil (+7,2%) remain the two main markets of Latin America and offer very favorable demand prospects. Excellent results also with regard to the Croatia (+14,4%), which entered the Eurozone in January 2023, represents a market of opportunities as a gateway to the Balkan region.
- United Statesfinally, thanks to their internal market size and energy independence, they continue to record a solid economic performance, which will be further strengthened by the Inflation Reduction Act and will provide a positive boost to numerous sectors, with benefits also for Italian exports (+6%).
Analyzed for the first time the export of environmental goods
The Export Report 2023 analysed, for the first time, the exports of environmental goods (EG) and their importance in the sustainable transition. These assets include products related to environmental protection and those designed to be more eco-friendly, such as biofuels, mercury-free batteries, and hybrid and electric vehicles.
Over the past twenty years, the international trade in environmental goods it grew at an average annual rate of 7,6%, higher than the overall growth of exports of goods, reaching over 1.750 billion dollars. The main players are Europe and Asia, the latter with the fastest growth. L'Italy it remained in second place in the EU, with exports of environmental goods worth $60 billion in 2021, accounting for 3,4% of world trade. The main sectors include instrumental mechanics, electrical appliances and measuring and control instruments.
The heavy investments underway for the sustainable transition, supported by European policies, will further stimulate the Italian export of environmental goods. It is expected to grow 9,3% this year and 9,7% next year, accelerating to an average of 14% per year over 2025-2026.
Artificial intelligence and foreign trade
Artificial intelligence (AI) and digital are revolutionizing businesses and becoming strategic tools for growth. AI is widely adopted in many industries, especially among foreign trade-oriented enterprises. It was found that theuse of AI improves business models and supports thebusiness expansion abroad, increasing their productivity thanks to a more effective management of the value chains and lower commercial costs. As also highlighted by the recent surveys carried out on Italian companies by the Tagliacarne-Unioncamere Study Center, for example, about 67% of companies that invest in digital technologies export, against 44% of those that do not.
However, to maximize the effectiveness of Industry 4.0, it is not enough just to adopt technologies, but it is also necessary to innovate the company's business model. Companies that invest in Industry 4.0 and innovate their business model are three times more likely to export than those that invest without changing it. These companies are also more present in international markets than those that do not invest in Industry 4.0.
Thanks to an advanced manufacturing industry and automation, theItaly has a strong specialization inapplying AI to physical systems, such as sensors, automation systems and robots. L'application of AI it also extends to services, such as healthcare, research, finance and transport. Furthermore, theAI contributes to environmental sustainability enabling ever more accurate prediction of extreme weather events and their effects on sectors such as agriculture.
Despite the progress of Italian companies, especially large companies, they are still there areas of improvement, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), both in finding financial resources to support technological innovation, and in the training and organization of human resources.
“Technological revolution and sustainable transition are the challenges that all of us, together, are called to face today to design the world of tomorrow. The companies that invest in sustainability and digitization are also those that export more and better. Our 2023 Export Report highlights this connection and accompanying companies in these processes is the mission that we in the Sace Group have made our own, to contribute to the lasting well-being of the community. The invitation I want to address to our partners, the approximately 40.000 companies that we support every day, is to invest in this process, always counting on our information, training and insurance-financial tools and on our network of relationships, to strengthen the ability to manage risks, seize opportunities and profit from the changes taking place” he commented Alessandra Ricci, Chief Executive Officer of Sace.
“In a context that is certainly not simple, the performance of Italian exports, although in a physiological slowdown, this year and next is confirmed to be robust. The Our Export Report represents a reference compass for companies who want to grow abroad, even in new geographies and with an eye always attentive to intercept market signals. This is why this year we wanted to analyze for the first time the international flows of goods linked to the energy transition in which Italy is second only to Germany in Europe, and the digital transformation which is now established as an accelerator of the competitiveness of companies, also internationalised” he explained Alexander Terzulli, Chief Economist of Sace.
